Patrick Mahomes has a 6-0 record in regular season overtime games.
His only two overtime losses (out of 9) were against the Patriots in the 2019 AFCCG and Bengals in the 2022 AFCCG.
The NFL changed the playoffs overtime possession rule because of him. Mahomes then used it to beat the 49ers in the 2024 SuperBowl.
During the regular season it's "TD on first possession wins the game."
Never give the Chiefs these odds.
I'll say it again: Never go into overtime against the Chiefs.
Bucks should've gone for two.
Going for two is like tying the game, winning the toss, going all the way to the Chiefs' 2 yard line with one more play to punch it in.
That's a great head start against Mahomes and these Chiefs. I'd take those chances any day versus the alternative in overtime, in which one of the following outcomes is likely:
(A) If you lose the toss, Chiefs march down field and score a TD. You lose.
(B) If you win the toss, Spags end-of-game defense shuts you down, chiefs get the ball and see (A) above. You lose.
(C) If you win the toss and score a field goal, Chiefs get a chance to match or beat it and will either score a TD or get to your 45 yard line to let Butker kick it to tie and/or extend the game. You lose or at very best tie.
(D) If you win the toss and don't score, Chiefs only have to get to your 45 yard line to let Butker kick a 62 yard field goal and win the game. You lose.
Never go into overtime against these Chiefs.
This team is so awesome. I think one of the reasons we are undefeated is, while we get every opponent's best effort each week, those teams are also doing things out of character to try to win.
One case is Mahomes scrambling and tossing it to Perine. He's done this twice now. Teams over-pursue to stop his scramble, it opens up the toss. We give teams the yips. They take chances against us. Less than half of them pay off. [Reply]
I don't think they charged anything about OT this year. It is first TD wins in the regular season. The playoffs give both teams a shot regardless of the first scored TD. Obviously fg can win too if the secend possession can't match or beat the score. [Reply]
honestly i was thinking the bucs were gonna go for two the whole drive but they scored too early. even if they converted the two the chances the chiefs just score a FG are astronomically high. we almost did while playing safe, if we’re in 4 down mode there’s no doubt in my mind we win that game in regulation. bowles was kind of damned if he did damned if he didnt. if there were like 10 less seconds on the clock i would say the decision is easier [Reply]
Originally Posted by 007:
I don't think they charged anything about OT this year. It is first TD wins in the regular season. The playoffs give both teams a shot regardless of the first scored TD. Obviously fg can win too if the secend possession can't match or beat the score.
Gah, you’re right. Forgot that was post-season vs regular.
Regardless, don't do it. This team makes coaches make choices they normally wouldn’t make. They cause so much extra mental burden. Its great. [Reply]
One really strange stat from last night, unless I heard incorrectly... they said Mahomes had never thrown a 4th quarter touchdown in a tied game until last night?
I'm sure that sample size is relatively small and then you have all the times they're tied and just kick a FG, but still. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bearcat:
One really strange stat from last night, unless I heard incorrectly... they said Mahomes had never thrown a 4th quarter touchdown in a tied game until last night?
I'm sure that sample size is relatively small and then you have all the times they're tied and just kick a FG, but still.
We tend to be ahead generally in the 4th quarter, but that was a strange one. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TinyEvel:
Gah, you’re right. Forgot that was post-season vs regular.
Regardless, don't do it. This team makes coaches make choices they normally wouldn’t make. They cause so much extra mental burden. Its great.
They should keep the playoff OT rules for the regular season. I still don't know why they allow for ties. The NFL has a lot of dumb rules and this is at, or near, the top. [Reply]
I caution anyone who thinks that not going for two was the right call by Bowles to make when the Buccs were playing with fire putting the burden on an XP kick for the tie in a rain game. [Reply]