I've been looking into this some more and I've heard so many points made on this and honestly I think there's some merit in all of the arguments as to what's happening right now.
Obviously everyone is going to put to the 2 high shell coverage that everyone is employing. Yes that is a pretty large reason but it's more that it is highlighting a bunch of other issues the league has, but it isn't a new phenomenon. In 2018, the highest amount of two-high looks faced by any quarterback in the league was 42%. Eight weeks into the 2021 NFL season, only five teams had faced two-high safeties less than 40%. It’s been happening for quite some time.
Of course someone might say well this is a scheme that was popular a long time ago and the league moved away from it..well yes but the defenders back then were not nearly as athletic as the defenders today. By and large defenses are faster and more athletic than they've ever been before.
Now of course you can come up with the old school approach to beating this and simply say, run them out of that look. Well in 2004 you could do that, the league has changed since then. The vast majority of teams are not setup to just pound the rock. Starting at the fact that OL's are just not as good anymore, pretty much from high school-college-NFL they're all playing in spread offenses where the ball comes out incredibly fast and they are run blocking occasionally. When you are sitting in shotgun 85% of a game you aren't even lined up to run the ball to get someone out of 2 high. On top of that you are spreading the field and your TE is most likely just a big WR who is a marginal blocker. Everything you have built for and drafted for is to throw the ball and every level of development has been built that way since these guys were 14.
Your outside WR is basically being taken away by the scheme, you're ability to just run the ball isn't great because of where the game is today..so what do you do? Well...then it becomes a short passing/YAC game. I think this style of defense is why we've seen a pretty massive comeback of the career of Alvin Kamara, he's the perfect player to destroy the current NFL. It also makes someone like say DeVon Achane super valuable. A RB that has catching skills with the ability to make plays in the open field has massive value right now, Jamaal Charles would look even better if he played today.
Also as has been talked about, offenses just playing boring, taking their 4 -7 yards each play to march down the field to score..well that leads to low scoring games when the vast majority of teams are to sloppy to not commit penalties or turnovers.
Also this style of offense is going to relate back to what I heard Tom Brady say about development. Sure the transfer portal is great for the excitement of college football but it's terrible for development. The NFL has basically had to adjust to essentially using the spread offense because most guys come in with no concept of actually running a pro style offense. How many guys are drafted today that can actually do a 3,5 and 7 step drop and be on time in the offense? How many offensive linemen come into the NFL with experience doing anything other than lining up for shotgun snaps?
Also the "rookie QB window" is ruining development. Expecting a dude who honestly has less development that most QB's had 15 years ago to just come in and be the man right away is kind of insane. Baker Mayfield looks like a good NFL QB, he was thought to be washed at 1 point. But because of contracts etc, no team is going to just say "We'll he needs to sit for a year or 2 and then we'll bring him a long slowly"
Something else I think is affecting scoring that is weird as fuck in my view is field position and kicking. The kicking in the NFL is at a stupid high level, higher than ever. In Week 1 this year kickers went 21-23 on kicks over 50 yards a 91.3 rate. 5 years ago If you started at the 20 you needed to get to the opponents 30 for a realistic FG try, 50 yards. Now you start at the 30 and only need to reach the opponents 40 for a realistic FG try. I think this leads to far more conservative play calling.
It's almost like a perfect storm of offensive suppression. [Reply]
I know it’s been said before but man if Jamaal Charles could have played in this offense with the looks we are getting from defenses, whew, it would be sexy. [Reply]
Originally Posted by ThrobProng:
If the trend continues, the NFL will ban such coverages in the name of increasing offensive production.
I doubt that will happen but basically you are either going to have to figure out how to actually run the ball. Whether that is figuring out a shotgun running scheme that works, being under center more than everyone else.
Or you can be the Saints and find the unicorn RB that torches the defense. Outside of that slot WR's that are YAC guys have value, it's why St. Brown is so good right now, and you've seen some of it that with Rashee. [Reply]
I dont hate this development from a purely football perspective. Defenses have been getting FUCKED for over a decade with the rule changes. Now it's finally their time to shine.
From a selfish fan perspective I hate it. I wanna see Mahomes breaking offensive records and scoring 30+ PPG. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
I doubt that will happen but basically you are either going to have to figure out how to actually run the ball. Whether that is figuring out a shotgun running scheme that works, being under center more than everyone else.
Or you can be the Saints and find the unicorn RB that torches the defense. Outside of that slot WR's that are YAC guys have value, it's why St. Brown is so good right now, and you've seen some of it that with Rashee.
Rashee should be killing right now. Along with Kelce and Gray. If the Bengals can use TE's to get easy YAC, we should be able to as well. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bl00dyBizkitz:
I dont hate this development from a purely football perspective. Defenses have been getting FUCKED for over a decade with the rule changes. Now it's finally their time to shine.
From a selfish fan perspective I hate it. I wanna see Mahomes breaking offensive records and scoring 30+ PPG.
It highlights that defensive players don't require nearly as much development as offensive players do. OL and QB's coming out playing in shotgun spread schemes basically has them 1 dimensional while defense is still defense and being a big fast freak is being a big fast freak. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bl00dyBizkitz:
Rashee should be killing right now. Along with Kelce and Gray. If the Bengals can use TE's to get easy YAC, we should be able to as well.
To be honest with as good as Mahomes is, I dunno why the Chiefs don't just do a quick slant for 7 yards every god damn play till the defense stops lining up like that. [Reply]
I think o line play is bad around the league. To beat this defense you need time and they aren’t able to give it. I don’t know if it’s dline getting better or tackles getting worse but that’s what I see. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Boxer_Chief:
I think o line play is bad around the league. To beat this defense you need time and they aren’t able to give it. I don’t know if it’s dline getting better or tackles getting worse but that’s what I see.
Some of the guys playing the edges are extremely athletic, I do think the level of athlete that rushes the passer as a whole is very high.
But yes time matters, less practice time, less development time all of that is also playing in. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
To be honest with as good as Mahomes is, I dunno why the Chiefs don't just do a quick slant for 7 yards every god damn play till the defense stops lining up like that.
I was surprised how much they attacked the Ravens with the slants and against the Bengals it wasn't really apart of the game plan. Didn't at all hate the commitment in running the ball against their zone coverage considering Kingsleys struggles pass blocking. You just cannot turn the ball over 3 times with that sort of game plan. [Reply]
The bengals were playing a lot of zone and had the linebackers backing into those intermediate areas making it more difficult to hit those crossers and slants. That strategy though leaves opportunities to run the ball which the Chiefs did reasonably well. The problem is we eventually got impatient and tried to force it down field and it led it interceptions. [Reply]