Originally Posted by Buehler445:
Way back when, Musk said the stock was overvalued at 400.
His market share was far better then, and I wasn’t paying attention to his profitability, but I can’t imagine it was much better.
I kinda believe him when he said it was overvalued at 400.
Probably right, but a lot of people don't understand the Tesla business model. Conventional analysts keep assessing it as an EV company. Approaching valuation from that perspective will always lead back to it being over-valued. But, Tesla is also (i) a power company; (ii) insurance company; (iii) solar company; (iv) smart robotics company; and, (v) self-driving company. A lot of these are "in the works" for sure, but he's further along than everyone else at bringing these technologies to the mass market. I have to imagine that Trump pulling support for the mass build out of EV charging stations will inure to the benefit of Tesla Superchargers, which charges premiums for power. [Reply]
I. Utilities have an average PE ratio of 19.70
II. Insurance Companies have an average PE ratio of 13.17
III. Solar companies don't have enough market capitalization to calculate an reasonable PE ratio.
IV. Specialty Industrial Machinery has a PE ratio of 27.56
V. Self driving doesn't really have an industry for comparison. Best out there is Waymo (who has operations and signed a deal with UBER - none of which Tesla has) who is wholly owned by Google, who has a PE ratio of 22.64.
Typically when valuing conglomerates, it is valued off the lowest PE industry they're involved in. That's why they all split up in the 80s and 90s.
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
I do a balance sheet at FMV once a year on excel.
This year I did a pretty in depth portfolio analysis. It was all manually looking up holdings in each fund and working the the numbers with excel. That took a bit of time and I probably won’t do that too often, but the work did make me decide to change some of my holdings.
Balance sheet is the easiest way. If you're going to look it all up anyway to link it, just put the values in a balance sheet. Don't over think it.
Assets = liabilities + equity.
Equity=net worth.
Good ol’ Excel may just be the way to go.
I was curious if any here used any apps that tracking everything simultaneously.
Originally Posted by myselff77:
I've used Empower for a couple years (going back to when it was Personal Capital). Does a good job connecting to various accounts to get a single view of all my stuff (401K, bank/savings accounts, investment accounts, etc). I especially like that they do not overly harass you with forcing you to talk to one of their financial planners (option is there if you want it, but they aren't constantly calling/emailing or anything).
Does Empower cost?
I was considering Credit Karma and apparently Schwab has a dashboard where you can connect other accounts for net worth tracking as well. [Reply]
I'm old school, but I primarily use Quicken to track all my stuff. That said, I think Empower's dashboard (used to be Personal Capital) is really solid - especially for something you can set up once and then have it sync everything in for you in the future. Quicken tries to do that, but their integrations are pretty iffy for anything that's not a bank account. [Reply]
Originally Posted by UteChief:
Are you adding your primary residence and if so how do you value it? I thought about being conservative and using property taxes.
I include it just to paint the overall picture, but I don't count on it much. If you want it, though, both Quicken and Empower can pull in the Zillow value, which is probably as good as anything if you live in an area with a decent number of comps. [Reply]
Originally Posted by sondevil:
Whoever called the Palantir stock was spot on. Kudos and thank you.
What did everyone do with their PLTR position today given the sell off? I got spooked and sold half of it at $112 to lock in a decent profit. I may dump the rest if it dips below $100. [Reply]
Originally Posted by myselff77:
What did everyone do with their PLTR position today given the sell off? I got spooked and sold half of it at $112 to lock in a decent profit. I may dump the rest if it dips below $100.
Originally Posted by myselff77:
What did everyone do with their PLTR position today given the sell off? I got spooked and sold half of it at $112 to lock in a decent profit. I may dump the rest if it dips below $100.
A lot of people already believed it was overvalued so once the CEO sold yesterday or today, everyone followed suit. Will probably sell mine tomorrow yesterday if it keeps falling. Bought at 65 so decent profit but wish I had bought more. It's one of those companies I heard about years ago but never bought until some time last year.
To be honest, I don't even fully know what they do. Just bought cause of the hype and the fact that it was going up like crazy :-) [Reply]
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
I. Utilities have an average PE ratio of 19.70
II. Insurance Companies have an average PE ratio of 13.17
III. Solar companies don't have enough market capitalization to calculate an reasonable PE ratio.
IV. Specialty Industrial Machinery has a PE ratio of 27.56
V. Self driving doesn't really have an industry for comparison. Best out there is Waymo (who has operations and signed a deal with UBER - none of which Tesla has) who is wholly owned by Google, who has a PE ratio of 22.64.
Typically when valuing conglomerates, it is valued off the lowest PE industry they're involved in. That's why they all split up in the 80s and 90s.
Tesla has always been betting on the come, and anyone investing (over the long term) is also betting on the come.
First Solar is at 14 PE, but that is in a major contraction phase due to solar glut--it will recover, at least that's what Blackrock is betting on.
Waymo is a taxi company that just sells rides. They don't make the cars, they don't sell the tech. Tesla will do both, and will sell/lease the tech to other manufacturers.
Smart robotics is a multi-trillion dollar industry that has yet to be tapped, and no one is close to Tesla in bringing that tech -- both software and hardware -- to market.
Conglomerates re-emerged in the past few decades. In fact, GE recently broke up, repeating the 80s- 90s. Honeywell just suggested it will. It's PE is 24, but those are two mature conglomerates, not early growth like Tesla. Any attempt to compare conglomerates to Tesla is a flawed approach.
It won't take a lot of growth to justify the PE, but yes, its investors are betting on the come. There's little betting on the come with insurers, retail gas, taxi service, etc. which makes your comparisons not relevant and your skepticism not entirely justified....just partially. [Reply]
