Inflation reignites. CPI up 3.8% in March. We're going in the wrong direction. How does the Fed lower rates in this scenario? They don't unless there's a huge reversal from what's been happening over the past few months.
The Feds narrative makes no sense. The economy is doing great, unemployment is very low and inflation is rising. This is the scenario to RAISE rates. [Reply]
Looking at FedWatch it appears they predict there will be no rate cut until September. And that probability is about 40%. To get to the "three rate cuts in 2024" it would take a huge change and then they'd have to cut rates three times in a row at the end of the year. Highly unlikely. The Fed talks all the time and miss so many metrics right in their faces. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Stewie:
Inflation reignites. CPI up 3.8% in March. We're going in the wrong direction. How does the Fed lower rates in this scenario? They don't unless there's a huge reversal from what's been happening over the past few months.
The Feds narrative makes no sense. The economy is doing great, unemployment is very low and inflation is rising. This is the scenario to RAISE rates.
:-) We don't need the algorithms picking up any such sentiment. [Reply]
Originally Posted by scho63:
I feel a major correction coming when Iran retaliates against Israel / US.
They are fucking pissed
I made $26,700 in 3 days this week with APPL call options that I sold Thursday and Friday. I would have made another $80,000 if I didn't sell them so damn early. I bought 250 puts in AAPL that expire this Friday and think I may have a good Monday.
Yep, depends on what happens with this attack, if it's mild saber rattling, the market might actually do ok. Anything else and it's probably going to get hammered. [Reply]
I'm swinging some SPY puts over the weekend so I'm hoping to cut loose first thing Monday morning if those knuckleheads in the ME keep bombing each other.
That's a hell of a week you had on Apple calls. I don't trust myself to let my profit get that high on options. I get up anywhere past 10% and it makes me too nervous to hold. I had a load of 0dte puts last Friday I sold for a 30% profit, where if I would have held it would have been over 300%.
I'm still new to options but I'm learning more every day, and reading everything I can about it. I think I enjoy trading options more than stocks, but man it's easy to blow your account if you don't have a plan. I've found that you gotta have a plan and you gotta stick with it. I've gotten lucky a time or 2 chasing a call or put, but more often than not it's caused me problems. And one bad day doing stupid shit will set you back weeks. So, knowing that I'm not the best trader, and knowing I don't have the ironclad willpower to not do stupid shit, I moved the bulk of my playing around trading money out of my Webull account and put that into my Vanguard account (which is not for day trading), and only kept 2k in to trade options on Webull.
It's not much, but it's what I had to do to force me to start making smarter trades and it keeps my wife happier. Plus, it helps me find better entries on trades since I've got such a small account and I can't do unlimited day trades. Hopefully one day I can get a nice week like yours, but until then I'm just going to concentrate on one good trade at a time. [Reply]
I sold my AAPL calls, pushed out my peacock feathers and had my buddy tell me what a great trade and then I watched it go up another $80,000.
Just when you think you are real smart, the market smacks you in the face and tells you that you're not as smart as you think you are.
About the 3rd time in 5 years I left more than $50,000 on the table getting out early. It's a reflex action from so many times riding a quick winner longer than I should have and not only giving back large profits but losing all my principal. [Reply]
Originally Posted by scho63:
I sold my AAPL calls, pushed out my peacock feathers and had my buddy tell me what a great trade and then I watched it go up another $80,000.
Just when you think you are real smart, the market smacks you in the face and tells you that you're not as smart as you think you are.
About the 3rd time in 5 years I left more than $50,000 on the table getting out early. It's a reflex action from so many times riding a quick winner longer than I should have and not only giving back large profits but losing all my principal.
