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Nzoner's Game Room>Investing megathread extravaganza
DaFace 11:23 AM 06-27-2016
A place to talk about investing stuff.
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TwistedChief 05:56 PM 03-12-2023
Originally Posted by ChiefRocka:
Via infamous bailouts funded with American taxpayer dollars
It's a bailout to provide insurance for a fee? I guess.

Your job that I presume you have right now wouldn't exist if the government hadn't taken those steps. Insured depositors in those same banks wouldn't have been made whole if the government hadn't taken those steps.
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Infidel Goat 06:06 PM 03-12-2023
Twisted,

I assume you are talking about funds like VMRXX, VMFXX, or VUSXX. Is that right or is there something else that you'd recommend parking extra cash in with Vanguard?

And if it is funds like that trio, is there one that you recommend over the other?

Thanks.
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TwistedChief 06:12 PM 03-12-2023
Originally Posted by Infidel Goat:
Twisted,

I assume you are talking about funds like VMRXX, VMFXX, or VUSXX. Is that right or is there something else that you'd recommend parking extra cash in with Vanguard?

And if it is funds like that trio, is there one that you recommend over the other?

Thanks.
Hey, man - I'm not necessarily recommending anything, but those do a pretty good job of replicating true risk free USD short rates and have risk to nothing aside from the US government.

And yes, those funds.

By virtue of my job I tend to keep more in cash than what anyone would recommend, and 4.5-5% seems delightful relative to some riskier things that I get pitched with IRRs maybe 2x that.
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TwistedChief 06:17 PM 03-12-2023
In any case, government stepped in to make uninsured depositors in SVB whole. If the government loses money, they essentially tax the banks.

Fed comes out strong providing liquidity to other banks who may experience outflows. Outflows will happen but this is still best case scenario for weaker banks.

I'm sure this story will still percolate and simmer but the tail risks meaningfully reduced in my mind.
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Infidel Goat 06:48 PM 03-12-2023
Originally Posted by TwistedChief:
Hey, man - I'm not necessarily recommending anything, but those do a pretty good job of replicating true risk free USD short rates and have risk to nothing aside from the US government.

And yes, those funds.

By virtue of my job I tend to keep more in cash than what anyone would recommend, and 4.5-5% seems delightful relative to some riskier things that I get pitched with IRRs maybe 2x that.
Thanks, man. I just wanted to make sure I was on the right track (and definitely not holding you to anything if we somehow discover that John Bogle had the biggest pyramid scheme of all time). I've been meaning to shift some cash from my low-interest-bearing account in a credit union for a few months. I already have an account with Vanguard with a total market index fund, so this will be easy. Appreciate you!
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Rain Man 06:59 PM 03-12-2023
I've got a big clump of money in one private online broker, which makes me a little nervous. It just kind of happened for various reasons. I keep pondering whether I should move some to another broker just to be sure no catastrophe strikes. Should I? It sounds like I shouldn't be worried that one of the big mainstream brokers will suddenly go belly up.

I would have never used the words "CDs" and "bold" in the same sentence before, but I'm making a bold move into CDs. I've been buying them on 1-5 year time frames with the plan that inflation will go down and I'll end up with CDs that are beating inflation. I think it's a reasonable bet, and my goal is just to match or beat inflation at this point. I think rates are still going up, so I'm buying into them somewhat slowly right now. I'm not putting anywhere near $250k into any one CD, but they're mostly going through the one brokerage, so I hope that's not a risk.
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TwistedChief 07:09 PM 03-12-2023
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
I've got a big clump of money in one private online broker, which makes me a little nervous. It just kind of happened for various reasons. I keep pondering whether I should move some to another broker just to be sure no catastrophe strikes. Should I? It sounds like I shouldn't be worried that one of the big mainstream brokers will suddenly go belly up.

I would have never used the words "CDs" and "bold" in the same sentence before, but I'm making a bold move into CDs. I've been buying them on 1-5 year time frames with the plan that inflation will go down and I'll end up with CDs that are beating inflation. I think it's a reasonable bet, and my goal is just to match or beat inflation at this point. I think rates are still going up, so I'm buying into them somewhat slowly right now. I'm not putting anywhere near $250k into any one CD, but they're mostly going through the one brokerage, so I hope that's not a risk.
Curious. What rate are you getting on those bank CDs? And how does that compare with US Treasury yields?
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Rain Man 07:24 PM 03-12-2023
Originally Posted by TwistedChief:
Curious. What rate are you getting on those bank CDs? And how does that compare with US Treasury yields?
I started doing my CD laddering at around 4.8 percent. The last one I bought was 5.4 percent for a 2-year CD. I'm not famiilar with the banks offering them, but the brokerage is saying that they're FDIC-insured. See the first photo below toward the right side. This is a search that I just did for 2-year CDs.

I keep looking at Treasuries, but I don't know enough about them. The second photo is what I see when I do a search. I used 2-year Treasuries to be consistent across both pictures.

I don't understand what the variables are. I tried looking them up, and the key to me seemed like the "Yield to Worst", which was explained as the worst-case scenario yield. But that implies that there are situations where I can do better than that. And the Coupon seems important because I read that that's the nominal rate, but they're all over the board and I don't know what that means. Why would I be expecting a 4.679+ return off of a bond that has a 1.125 percent nominal rate? I'm sure I'm misunderstanding something.

What I see is that the CD rates are higher and I understand them, so that's what I've been buying. Can you explain why Treasuries should be considered when looking at the two pictures below? Thanks in advance.
Attached: CD Screen.jpg (98.5 KB) Treasury Screen.jpg (46.3 KB) 
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Rain Man 07:35 PM 03-12-2023
Here's something I find kind of humorous. I saw that 5-year CDs were being offered up to 5.4 percent, so I looked at them. The top offerer is the "Bank of Bird-in-Hand".

Does that sound scammy or what? So I looked up this bank, and it turns out that it's a small bank that's located in the town of Bird-In-Hand, Pennsylvania. It caters mostly to Amish people, and in fact their drive-through window is designed to accommodate horses and buggies.

I might have to put a little money into this Amish bank's 5.4 percent rate.
Attached: CD 5-Year Screen.jpg (82.7 KB) 
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Jenson71 07:39 PM 03-12-2023
I would go with that bank. After all, it's better to have an account with Bank of Bird-in-Hand than two at Bank of Bird-in-Bush.
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Rain Man 07:41 PM 03-12-2023
Originally Posted by Jenson71:
I would go with that bank. After all, it's better to have an account with Bank of Bird-in-Hand than two at Bank of Bird-in-Bush.
The Bank of Bird-In-Bush seems too good to be true. I'm wary.

I wonder if the Bank of Bird-In-Hand will give me my monthly dividend in $20 gold pieces. Because that would be kind of cool.
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Hog's Gone Fishin 03-12-2023, 07:53 PM
This message has been deleted by Hog's Gone Fishin. Reason: More good info , only Rainman worthy
Rain Man 08:07 PM 03-12-2023
Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin:
My BIL was telling me he invested in some I-bonds that paid 10% around 3 months ago.
Yeah, I've been buying those. I'd buy them all day except there's an annual purchase limit that's pretty low.
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Buehler445 09:49 AM 03-13-2023
Originally Posted by TwistedChief:
Of course you should. Absolutely. Though if you choose to do it, you’re likely safer with a Chase, Citi, or BOA.

And guys, re: the 1.3%. You do realize that during the largest financial crisis of our lives no depositors whether insured or uninsured lost money, right? Despite several hundred bank failures? There are assets against these bank deposits. And banks are so much more heavily regulated now than they had been (though a former unnamed president watered down regulations for smaller banks).

This SVB situation is super niche. They just did every stupid thing you could’ve done given their structure. Total mismanagement.
Am I understanding it right that they had a pissload of capital tied up in long term bonds that when the interest rate rose they lost value? Then they needed to raise capital and that's when the VC's all told their clients to GTFO and started the run on the bank?

It seems weird to me that a bank of all placed would tie up capital for the long term. I know that when interest rates didn't move for basically 20 years, it would be easy to get out of them, but as inflation poked up on the horizon (long before rates took off) that they would have unwound them, at least some of them.

I'm an idiot, but that's the way I see it.
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JohnnyHammersticks 01:18 PM 03-13-2023
I know this dude pretty well. We had the same mentor (Tim Sykes) and started in his program at almost exactly the same time. Jack started late 2016, I started early 2017. He's taken it a little further than me at this point, but I'm hot on his heels.

https://www.businessinsider.com/stoc...-4-2023-3?r=rr



A 24-year-old stock trader who made over $8 million in 2 years shares the 4 indicators he uses as his guides to buy and sell
Laila Maidan Mar 12, 2023, 2:00 AM


Five years into his craft, he has already been exposed to various types of market conditions, including the stock market crash of 2020, the raging bull rallies of 2021, and the bear market of 2022. One thing he has learned through it all is to keep things simple and remain flexible.

"There's this acronym: KISS, keep it simple stupid. I don't think people need super fancy indicators to make money trading. I'm just using basic trend lines, support, resistance, volume, and those are all my indicators," Kellogg said. "I think if you overcomplicate the indicators, it will actually throw off your trading because then you're trading more on the indicators than the actual price action."

Spoiler!

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ChiefRocka 04:42 PM 03-13-2023
Originally Posted by JohnnyHammersticks:

Five years into his craft, he has already been exposed to various types of market conditions, including the stock market crash of 2020

WAT?!?
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