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Nzoner's Game Room>Investing megathread extravaganza
DaFace 11:23 AM 06-27-2016
A place to talk about investing stuff.
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lewdog 07:43 PM 03-13-2023
Originally Posted by JohnnyHammersticks:
I know this dude pretty well. We had the same mentor (Tim Sykes) and started in his program at almost exactly the same time. Jack started late 2016, I started early 2017. He's taken it a little further than me at this point, but I'm hot on his heels.

https://www.businessinsider.com/stoc...-4-2023-3?r=rr



A 24-year-old stock trader who made over $8 million in 2 years shares the 4 indicators he uses as his guides to buy and sell
Laila Maidan Mar 12, 2023, 2:00 AM

  • One of Jack Kellogg's main indicators is the volume-weighted average price (VWAP).
  • This shows the average price paid for shares and helps him gauge sentiment.
  • He only uses indicators as a t=rough guide but never trades solely on them, he noted.
  • Jack Kellogg began trading stocks right out of high school in 2017.

Five years into his craft, he has already been exposed to various types of market conditions, including the stock market crash of 2020, the raging bull rallies of 2021, and the bear market of 2022. One thing he has learned through it all is to keep things simple and remain flexible.

"There's this acronym: KISS, keep it simple stupid. I don't think people need super fancy indicators to make money trading. I'm just using basic trend lines, support, resistance, volume, and those are all my indicators," Kellogg said. "I think if you overcomplicate the indicators, it will actually throw off your trading because then you're trading more on the indicators than the actual price action."

Spoiler!
Man that's awesome. And nice to see he's not using some crazy formulas and mostly just technical analysis.

I'll be honest, my trading only works in bull markets where I can be very successful trading for a profit that's a lot more than the index. However, I don't have the skills to be making money in markets like 2022 and so far 2023. Johnny, what are some of the strategies he'd be using in a market like 2022 to make such good money?
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Hog's Gone Fishin 06:51 AM 03-14-2023
Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin:
Golden opportunity to make some 100% gains on bank stocks

I grabbed some PACW and FRC for the rebound

Made a killin this morning on both these. Already sold and re entered on the pull back . Plan to grab more if they drop at market open. FRC was at $123 eight days ago. Can't imagine it doesn't hit $75 -$85 within 2 weeks now
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JohnnyHammersticks 07:11 AM 03-14-2023
Originally Posted by lewdog:
Man that's awesome. And nice to see he's not using some crazy formulas and mostly just technical analysis.

I'll be honest, my trading only works in bull markets where I can be very successful trading for a profit that's a lot more than the index. However, I don't have the skills to be making money in markets like 2022 and so far 2023. Johnny, what are some of the strategies he'd be using in a market like 2022 to make such good money?
He's really just all about price action and studying. He works harder and studies more than anyone I've ever come in contact with in the trading business. He really capitalized on the crazy bull market at the end of 2020 and early 2021. Worked himself to the point of exhaustion and into some health problems that took him awhile to get over. He's toned it down a bit now.

But yeah, he's a master of price action. Whereas newbs are buying breakouts, high of day breaks, etc., Jack is buying the consolidation at the end of a down trend just before it reverses. So he's selling into the newbs who are buying breakouts and HOD breaks.

He also had the balls to size way up during that period in late 2020/early 2021. He crossed $1M in total trading profits in November 2020, and by March 2021 he was over $6M. So he really went all-in during that crazy run.

We're required to integrate our broker's trading platform with a tracking system called Profit.ly, so all our trades are automatically uploaded into their system. So you can't cheat the system or fudge numbers. As the Business Insider article claimed, they verified his numbers with tax returns. I'll attach Jack's Profit.ly profit chart, you can see the almost parabolic rise in his profits at the end of 2020 to early 2021.


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Hog's Gone Fishin 07:25 AM 03-14-2023
WAL was at 7.50 yesterday .

Now its at 37
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ChiefRocka 07:50 AM 03-14-2023
Originally Posted by JohnnyHammersticks:
I'm just taking a wild guess - I don't know the author of the article or have any super-secret inside info or anything - but maybe they were referring to Feb/March 2020 when the Dow went from almost 30K to 18k in 3 weeks.

Some nonsense called Covid or something. Maybe you were absent or on vacation and didn't hear about it?

Four months later it was back at the original level. That was a large extended bear trap. To say this cat is a "seasoned veteran" trader since 2017 is laughable.
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JohnnyHammersticks 07:58 AM 03-14-2023
Originally Posted by ChiefRocka:
Four months later it was back at the original level. That was a large extended bear trap. To say this cat is a "seasoned veteran" trader since 2017 is laughable.
Whatever you say, Warren Buffoon
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JohnnyHammersticks 07:59 AM 03-14-2023
Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin:
WAL was at 7.50 yesterday .

Now its at 37
Yeah tell me about it :-)
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Buehler445 09:04 AM 03-14-2023
Originally Posted by ChiefRocka:
Four months later it was back at the original level. That was a large extended bear trap. To say this cat is a "seasoned veteran" trader since 2017 is laughable.
Yeah, dude, he kind of is.

I'm going to be 40 this year. I graduated in 2002. And I certainly paid attention to the .com bubble and 9/11 I wasn't trading anything there. I got out of grad school in 07, and I had a good $5 maybe $6 in the markets when 2008 happened, the impact to the labor market mattered WAY more than my $5 going to $4 or whatever.

Along my timeline (I understand not everybody goes to grad school and you can invest earlier than I did if you've got the money), but in order for anybody to have real money invested in 2008 along my timeline, they have to be what? 10 years older than me? That's 50 and you need to start looking at taking risk off the table.

That's a pretty narrow swath of dudes that have taken bullets with real capital. PLUS, way more shit has happened since 2017 than from 2008 to 2017. And if the recession lasts very long at all you're going to be pushing for dudes going back to the 80s, and those guys aren't around.
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Rain Man 09:33 AM 03-14-2023
Oh, this is nice. When Signature Bank collapsed, they replaced it on the S&P 500 with BG (Bunge). I have a lot of BG stock, and it spiked up since the ETFs will all need to start buying it. Out of the ashes rises a phoenix.
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Buehler445 09:35 AM 03-14-2023
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
Oh, this is nice. When Signature Bank collapsed, they replaced it on the S&P 500 with BG (Bunge). I have a lot of BG stock, and it spiked up since the ETFs will all need to start buying it. Out of the ashes rises a phoenix.
LOL nice.

Why do you own Bunge? Just had to get in the grain business?
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Rain Man 09:54 AM 03-14-2023
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
LOL nice.

Why do you own Bunge? Just had to get in the grain business?
Y'know, I've had it for a decade or so, and it's treated me pretty well. I bought it because I liked the dividend and for some reason I have a bias toward raw material stocks. Overall, it's been a pretty decent performer for me and I've been inching up my holdings at the right time these past couple of years.
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Rain Man 09:57 AM 03-14-2023
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
Here's something I find kind of humorous. I saw that 5-year CDs were being offered up to 5.4 percent, so I looked at them. The top offerer is the "Bank of Bird-in-Hand".

Does that sound scammy or what? So I looked up this bank, and it turns out that it's a small bank that's located in the town of Bird-In-Hand, Pennsylvania. It caters mostly to Amish people, and in fact their drive-through window is designed to accommodate horses and buggies.

I might have to put a little money into this Amish bank's 5.4 percent rate.
I just bought some 5.3 percent CDs at Bird-In-Hand. (I missed the 5.4, dang it.) If you can't trust the Amish, who can you trust?
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Buehler445 07:02 AM 03-16-2023
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
I was thinking about something the other day involving tax rates, and I think the government is running a little IRA grift on us. It's still better to put money into an IRA than to not do it, but this is something I'd never thought about.

If you put money into a stock in an IRA and the price grows, then yay, you make money. When you eventually take it out, you pay regular income tax on the gains, which is going to vary, but it's almost certain to be 22% to 35% for most people.

If you bought that same stock in a regular investment account, you're going to pay capital gains tax when you sell it, which is probably going to be 15% for most people.

So by holding it in an IRA, you end up paying a higher tax on the gains.

Now, it's still better to put it in an IRA because it's pre-tax money going in, which gives you a bigger investment, and the taxes are deferred for many years, but I'd never thought about the fact that you take a bigger bite coming out.

Am I thinking about this right? Do I have any wrong assumptions?
Just a heads up. For the high income folks.

Biden Calls for Doubling Capital Gains Tax Rate (LT CG Rates for those earning over $1M)


I don't have a clue whether or not this passes. Most of the motherfuckers that would have to pass this thing....would have exposure.

But nonetheless, the agenda is out there.
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DaFace 08:27 AM 03-16-2023
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
Just a heads up. For the high income folks.

Biden Calls for Doubling Capital Gains Tax Rate (LT CG Rates for those earning over $1M)


I don't have a clue whether or not this passes. Most of the motherfuckers that would have to pass this thing....would have exposure.

But nonetheless, the agenda is out there.
A million in EARNINGS per year? That's a pretty high bar. I wouldn't think that'd even apply to most politicians.
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Buehler445 09:21 AM 03-16-2023
Originally Posted by DaFace:
A million in EARNINGS per year? That's a pretty high bar. I wouldn't think that'd even apply to most politicians.
I bet you’d be surprised.

I’m certainly open to being wrong though. 175K is off the table with salary. Plus you have to have a good bit of wealth to dump whatever career you had before.


These bastards all retire rich, but I don’t know how much income they’re claiming. I do know when Romney ran he’d have had exposure.
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