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Nzoner's Game Room>Investing megathread extravaganza
DaFace 11:23 AM 06-27-2016
A place to talk about investing stuff.
[Reply]
Halfcan 10:08 PM 06-20-2022
Originally Posted by lewdog:
Hasn’t been at these levels since July of ‘21, 50% off it’s high currently.

Just saying.
This!

That is why I shop in the bargain bin. :-)
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neech 08:08 AM 06-21-2022
Originally Posted by Halfcan:
Why not the others- they are at bargain prices?

I am also looking at these.

EMN Eastman Chemical
ABR Arbor Reality
HCA Health
ORC Orchid Island Capitol
I had EMN for awhile I sold at around 112 a year ago as it was trending up nicely then started to edge downward more then I liked so I had to give it the knife. It has a nice dividend also.
[Reply]
scho63 08:41 AM 06-21-2022
Check out BDN at these levels for it's dividend

Brandywine Realty Trust.
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scho63 08:46 AM 06-21-2022
FWIW Halfcan, in the future could you put a wall of text like that in spoiler tags?

Brutal to read the last few responses in this thread.
[Reply]
Buehler445 12:37 PM 06-22-2022
Originally Posted by scho63:
Check out BDN at these levels for it's dividend

Brandywine Realty Trust.
Thanks for the heads up. That looks like a nice little stock to own.

Remains to be seen what will happen but I picked some up in my gambling account
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Rain Man 01:11 PM 06-22-2022
Originally Posted by scho63:
Check out BDN at these levels for it's dividend

Brandywine Realty Trust.
I've been reading that REITs do well in inflationary environments. I hold a few, in large part because they got destroyed in the shutdown but as long as I don't sell them I still get the dividends. They don't seem to be thriving, but they've generally held their own in this latest bear market, which is a win.
[Reply]
scho63 03:28 PM 06-22-2022
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
Thanks for the heads up. That looks like a nice little stock to own.

Remains to be seen what will happen but I picked some up in my gambling account
Look at it solely for dividends and reinvest it each quarter
[Reply]
scho63 03:35 PM 06-22-2022
Originally Posted by lewdog:
How do you find your criteria for a target buy price? Genuinely interested in your technique.


[Reply]
lewdog 09:01 PM 06-22-2022
This used January 3rd as the starting point and was made on May 20th.....we add roughly 32 days to 161 and we're 193 days into this bear market.

Based on past instances, recovery to new highs will likely take 2-3 years.


[Reply]
Rain Man 09:05 PM 06-22-2022
Originally Posted by lewdog:
This used January 3rd as the starting point and was made on May 20th.....we add roughly 32 days to 161 and we're 193 days into this bear market.

Based on past instances, recovery to new highs will likely take 2-3 years.

I don't like the look of those five-year recoveries.
[Reply]
scho63 06:51 AM 06-23-2022
There are TWO HUGE differences at this time that will create a soft landing for 85-90% of the US.
1. The US consumer still has a shit load of money
2. The US consumer is NOT over-leveraged like in the past so banks are in great shape

To me, the big wild card is if housing prices plunge then homeowners could be deep underwater and start walking away from their houses.
I don't think it will happen but home prices need a 25-30% haircut.
[Reply]
Chazno 08:26 AM 06-23-2022
Originally Posted by scho63:
There are TWO HUGE differences at this time that will create a soft landing for 85-90% of the US.
1. The US consumer still has a shit load of money
2. The US consumer is NOT over-leveraged like in the past so banks are in great shape

To me, the big wild card is if housing prices plunge then homeowners could be deep underwater and start walking away from their houses.
I don't think it will happen but home prices need a 25-30% haircut.
If this is the case, why is the media trying to say that the government giving stimulus checks to the US consumer is the cause of all this? Isn't that one of the ways they got this money?
[Reply]
scho63 08:40 AM 06-23-2022
Originally Posted by Chazno:
If this is the case, why is the media trying to say that the government giving stimulus checks to the US consumer is the cause of all this? Isn't that one of the ways they got this money?
They poured gas on the fire.

If not for Joe Manchin, we would be at 15-20% inflation based on the stupid idea to hand out MORE than the $5 trillion they did.

It was an incredibly foolish decision at the same time the Fed was helping to feed liquidity.

Yes, it jacked up inflation GREATER but it was far from the only factor.
[Reply]
Hog's Gone Fishin 06-23-2022, 08:43 AM
This message has been deleted by Hog's Gone Fishin.
scho63 08:48 AM 06-23-2022
Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin:
We're only down 21% through the end of May but Jesus Christ it feels like 155%
It's a bloodbath for the growth stocks, they are down 40-50-75-80% from the peak.

Many others also down > 50% :-)
[Reply]
scho63 09:07 AM 06-23-2022
Originally Posted by Chazno:
If this is the case, why is the media trying to say that the government giving stimulus checks to the US consumer is the cause of all this? Isn't that one of the ways they got this money?
Why we have had so much inflation in the order they occurred:

1. Attack on the oil industry from the first day of the new admin
2. Shutting down the economy during COVID across the globe
3. COVID's effect on the stopping and disruption of supply chain
4. COVID massive stimulus
5. Housing market short on inventory for last 4-5 years
6. The Fed's late reaction to "real" not "transitory" inflation
7. The Reopening across the globe from COVID
8. Massive labor shortage from COVID
9. The war in Ukraine

Once COVID ended and everyone was so flush with cash, the demand went through the roof and it has been a perfect storm.

I believe that part of our economy is already in a recession:
-Bottom 20% of income earners: In recession once COVID stimulus checks ended
-Next 20% of income earners: Sliding into recession and watching their savings and income being eroded from gas, food and other items
-Middle 20% of income earners: On the cusp but still in good shape with jobs, extra cash and enough cushion
-Next to top 20% of income earners: Just a little cautious on frivolous or extra spending but not in recession
-Top 20% of income earners- not even close and will not be in a recession unless it is deep, prolonged and runs across all businesses with a lot of unemployment.
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