Originally Posted by Infidel Goat:
I beat the total market in 2021 but I'm hardly an active trader.
For the last thirty years, I've primarily held 100% of my Roth IRA and (for the last fifteen years) 403b in a total market index (FSKAX most recently). I'm the guy who ties the index most years.
I beat the market because I moved about half of my Roth IRA portfolio into FSRBX (Fidelity Select Banking Portfolio) in the middle of August 2020.
It was definitely a market timing move that I wouldn't usually engage in but the overall market had already snapped back from the pandemic and the banking sector hadn't yet. FSRBX did bounce back shortly after I bought it and so it was a little bit like getting the market bounce back X2 in 2020. Huzzah for me. FSRBX also had a better year than FSKAX in 2021, so I'm up against the total market index again this year.
I know that I'm overexposed in the banking sector right now, so I'd like to get back close to 100% FSKAX by the end of 2022. Short term, though, I'm still a little bullish on FSRBX because it's one of the industries most likely to benefit from higher interest rates.
Long term, I also have to decide when I want to move away from 100% equities in my retirement accounts. I passed 50 recently and will likely work at least another 10-15 years, so I'd have time to invest further and recover if the market tanked in the short term. I'm obviously still pretty aggressive with my retirement accounts right now, though.
I sold 1/2 of my FSRBX and put it into FSPHX (which is down 8% YTD).
FSRBX has had a nice early run in the year for me. Up 10.99% YTD.
My Roth is now essentially 1/3 FSKAX, 1/3 FSRBX, 1/3 FSPHX. I think FSPHX goes back up once the omicron wave passes. [Reply]
Something is telling me that we are in for a route to the downside. We are closer to the 200 SMA on the Qs than we are on the SPYs so perhaps we see those bottom out first.
But the distance between the SPY now and the 200 SMA is about 260 SP500 points which is about 2,600 Dow points. [Reply]
I haven’t looked at my account for a week or so since so many tech growth stocks are getting absolutely hammered and I didn’t want to see it assuming it was still bad. Should have not looked so I could keep pretending they are doing good. Just got to hold on to them though. [Reply]
I am suspecting with the market being closed on Monday there will be a good amount of selling going into the close. No one wants to be long going into a long weekend right now.
Right now I think you are probably seeing some short covering from the week but I expect the sell orders to hit in the last 30 min of the day. [Reply]
Well I don't mind being wrong in this case. I expected a ton of selling to hit the market late but looks like we are getting some short covering and that's about it. [Reply]
