For now, it seems like a novelty - cars that can operate independently of human control, safely cruising down streets thanks to an array of sensors and pinpoint GPS navigation.
But if the technology avoids getting crushed by government regulators and product liability lawsuits, writes the Federalist's Dan McLaughlin, it could prompt a cultural shift similar to the early 20th century move away from horses as the primary means of transportation.
First and foremost, he writes, the spread of driverless cars will likely greatly reduce the number of traffic accidents - which currently cost Americans $871b (£510b) a year.
"A truly driverless road would not be accident-free, given the number of accidents that would still be caused by mechanical and computer errors, weather conditions, pedestrians, bicyclists, motorcyclists and sheer random chance," he says. "But it would make the now-routine loss of life and limb on the roads far rarer."
Computer-operated cars would eventually reshape car design, he says, as things like windshields - "a large and vulnerable piece of glass" - become less necessary. Drivers will be able to sit wherever they'd like in their cars, which could make car interiors more like mobile lounges than like cockpits.
The age required to operate a driverless car is likely to drop, he says. There could be an impact on the legal drinking age, as well, as preventing drunk driving was one of the prime justifications for the US-wide setting minimum age to purchase alcohol at 21 years old.
There's other possible economic fallout, McLaughlin contends, such as a restructuring of the auto insurance industry, the obsolescence of taxi drivers and lower ratings for drive-time radio programmes.
The high-tech security state will also get boost, he writes, as GPS-tagged cars will be easier to track, making life difficult for fugitives and car thieves. Police will also be able to move resources away from operations like traffic enforcement.
Of course, he writes, the towns that rely on speed traps to fund their government services will be facing budget shortfalls. Privacy advocates could also get an unexpected boost, he notes, since traffic stops are one of the main justifications for police vehicle searches.
Finally, there's the prospect of the as-yet-unrealised futurist dream of flying cars. With computer-controlled vehicles that strictly follow traffic rules, McLaughlin says, "the potential for three-dimensional roads becomes a lot less scary and more a matter of simply solving the technological challenge".
Where we're going, we may not need roads after all. [Reply]
the problem with driverless cars and electric cars is that like they don't really solve any problems. like if your gripe is traffic then just making some cars electric or driverless doesn't change the number of cars on the road. it'd be like outlawing suvs and saying you can only drive compacts, it's still the same number of cars the cars are just different. the only way to really fix that problem is to reduce the number of cars on the road and the only really effective way to do that is basically making biking, walking and public transportation more convenient than driving. And doing that basically requires changing how we've built cities and towns for the last like 70 years in north america.
if the complaint is environmental/climate related then all electric cars do is just move the emissions of a car from the tailpipe to the powergrid, the carbon savings from a tesla from an ICE is about the same as a subcompact to an SUV. plus electric vehicles are massively heavy so that's more wear and tear on roads (the electric hummer weighs like 10,000 lbs lol) and you have to consider the environmental impact of batteries which isn't nothing. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Just thinking through it, these things WILL get figured out in the next couple decades. It could happen very quickly, or it may take a while, but it'll get done. The technology is already too close to a reality for it not to happen.
So given that, the implications are incredible to think about. Off the top of my head (and summarizing some from the article and elsewhere), here are a few. These are all, of course, purely theoretical depending on how things work out.
Cars could take kids to and from school on their own, freeing up parents.
People who are visually impaired would have a way to get around much more.efficiently, potentially increasing the portion of blind people who can reasonably work.
Traffic congestion could be reduced dramatically, as human reactions are the cause of a huge amount of it currently.
Drunk driving could be reduced dramatically.
Car sharing could become the norm since you could potentially have a huge fleet of cars-on-demand to show up when you need them.
The elderly could stay mobile much further in their lives, improving longevity and quality of life dramatically.
It's fascinating to consider all the possibilities. If it works perfectly, I think it could be as big of a cultural revolution as the internet.
yeah but like a bus or a train can already do all of those things [Reply]
Originally Posted by DrunkBassGuitar:
the problem with driverless cars and electric cars is that like they don't really solve any problems. like if your gripe is traffic then just making some cars electric or driverless doesn't change the number of cars on the road. it'd be like outlawing suvs and saying you can only drive compacts, it's still the same number of cars the cars are just different. the only way to really fix that problem is to reduce the number of cars on the road and the only really effective way to do that is basically making biking, walking and public transportation more convenient than driving. And doing that basically requires changing how we've built cities and towns for the last like 70 years in north america.
if the complaint is environmental/climate related then all electric cars do is just move the emissions of a car from the tailpipe to the powergrid, the carbon savings from a tesla from an ICE is about the same as a subcompact to an SUV. plus electric vehicles are massively heavy so that's more wear and tear on roads (the electric hummer weighs like 10,000 lbs lol) and you have to consider the environmental impact of batteries which isn't nothing.
Wear and tear to roads from leaking oil, gasoline and brake fluid is probably even worse. Its not like a electric sedan is as big of a difference than a car to a semi or even close.
Alos shitty people and bad drivers also cause traffic jam. A driverless society (which I acknowledge will not happen in my lifetime) you would have yo think lower traffic by a ton just due to efficiency. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Why would you WANT to drive in the first place...if you didnt have to. I don't know about you but I HATE driving.
When I go on a long trip and I use auto pilot which still isn't even close to driverless driving....but I feel 1000% less fatigued when I get home.
JFC, you are such a pussy about everything. Fatigued from driving? How difficult is it to operate a vehicle vs. sitting on your ass inside a vehicle still focusing on the road. Do your wee little arms and foot get tired operating that heavy steering wheel and brake pedal? [Reply]
Originally Posted by LoneWolf:
JFC, you are such a pussy about everything. Fatigued from driving? How difficult is it to operate a vehicle vs. sitting on your ass inside a vehicle still focusing on the road. Do your wee little arms and foot get tired operating that heavy steering wheel and brake pedal?
I mean, I can take a nap if I'm not driving. And I'm a fan of naps more than I am a fan of staring at the car in front of me. [Reply]
Originally Posted by LoneWolf:
JFC, you are such a pussy about everything. Fatigued from driving? How difficult is it to operate a vehicle vs. sitting on your ass inside a vehicle still focusing on the road. Do your wee little arms and foot get tired operating that heavy steering wheel and brake pedal?
Its mental fatigue not physical. Notice I said long trips. If you dont think you get mental fatigue the longer you drive you are kidding yourself. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Just thinking through it, these things WILL get figured out in the next couple decades. It could happen very quickly, or it may take a while, but it'll get done. The technology is already too close to a reality for it not to happen.
So given that, the implications are incredible to think about. Off the top of my head (and summarizing some from the article and elsewhere), here are a few. These are all, of course, purely theoretical depending on how things work out.
Cars could take kids to and from school on their own, freeing up parents.
People who are visually impaired would have a way to get around much more.efficiently, potentially increasing the portion of blind people who can reasonably work.
Traffic congestion could be reduced dramatically, as human reactions are the cause of a huge amount of it currently.
Drunk driving could be reduced dramatically.
Car sharing could become the norm since you could potentially have a huge fleet of cars-on-demand to show up when you need them.
The elderly could stay mobile much further in their lives, improving longevity and quality of life dramatically.
It's fascinating to consider all the possibilities. If it works perfectly, I think it could be as big of a cultural revolution as the internet.
Excellent point.
Originally Posted by DrunkBassGuitar:
yeah but like a bus or a train can already do all of those things
Excellent point.
I think the key is to get irrational humans to drive less, regardless of how that happens.
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Why would you WANT to drive in the first place...if you didnt have to. I don't know about you but I HATE driving.
When I go on a long trip and I use auto pilot which still isn't even close to driverless driving....but I feel 1000% less fatigued when I get home.
Excellent point.
Some people enjoy driving, and that's great. I figure there'll always be niches where a human driver is needed.
But I'm right there with you on not enjoying driving. It's a big waste of time. There are times when I'm out in some huge rural area where it's kind of peaceful, but most of my driving is not out in a rural utopia. And while the scenery can be nice, I'd rather see the scenery from a train where I'm not needing to watch the road.
If you think about the number of hours Americans spend driving every year, how many great novels are going unwritten? How many kids' treehouses are going unbuilt? How many lonely housewives are being left unsatisfied? There are a million better ways that that billion hours could be used. [Reply]
Originally Posted by HemiEd:
The more I think about it, I am spoiled to living out here off the grid. We have to go to Springfield today and the idiot drivers/traffic always makes me want to go postal.
Lol...the sprawling metropolis of Springfield and its miles of bumper to bumper traffic is sure to send fear through even the most seasoned of drivers. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
I mean, I can take a nap if I'm not driving. And I'm a fan of naps more than I am a fan of staring at the car in front of me.
I don't believe you can take a nap if you are on auto pilot. You have to keep your eyes forward and on the road or the vehicle gives you a warning.
If you're on auto pilot, you are basically driving without moving your arms or making all the "exhausting" decisions like "do I stop at this stop sign", "can I make this right turn on a red light", and "do I have enough time to pass this jackass in front of me before my exit." [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Its mental fatigue not physical. Notice I said long trips. If you dont think you get mental fatigue the longer you drive you are kidding yourself.
It's not mental fatigue from driving. It's mental fatigue from doing anything for a long period of time. If you are sitting in the drivers seat staring out the window for hours on end, you are going to be mentally fatigued as long as you are awake. At least driving gives you something to keep you occupied. [Reply]
I lean more towards getting unnecessary drivers off the road through remote work, delivery services, and walking while implementing driver less vehicles as a compliment to the primary solution mentioned above.
There are WAYYYY too many people who just suck at driving that are placing others in danger for no good reason.
BTW: Get off your cell phone. If you were that important that you need 24/7 connectivity you wouldn't be driving. [Reply]
Originally Posted by loochy:
Lol...the sprawling metropolis of Springfield and its miles of bumper to bumper traffic is sure to send fear through even the most seasoned of drivers.
Exactly!:-)
I lived in Chicagoland for 18 years and there is no way I could handle that now., Used to travel to NY, LA, Boston etc. by car on business.
But, for the past 9 years, we have lived where a car going by is an event you look up and notice. :-)
So going to Springfield, is a dramatic change for this old man. Last month at 2:30 in the afternoon I was wondering why everyone in Springfield was out driving instead of working. :-)
Originally Posted by Otter:
I lean more towards getting unnecessary drivers off the road through remote work, delivery services, and walking while implementing driver less vehicles as a compliment to the primary solution mentioned above.
There are WAYYYY too many people who just suck at driving that are placing others in danger for no good reason.
BTW: Get off your cell phone. If you were that important that you need 24/7 connectivity you wouldn't be driving.
Bingo!
On a recent trip we were taking to Indianapolis, a young lady in a mini van wasn't even hiding the fact she was texting/using her phone for many miles on I-44. She was actually holding it up near the rear view mirror like she was facetiming someone doing 75mph.
They should make a device, similar to those breathalyzer interlocks to keep the driver off of their phones. [Reply]
Originally Posted by HemiEd:
Exactly!:-)
I lived in Chicagoland for 18 years and there is no way I could handle that now., Used to travel to NY, LA, Boston etc. by car on business.
But, for the past 9 years, we have lived where a car going by is an event you look up and notice. :-)
So going to Springfield, is a dramatic change for this old man. Last month at 2:30 in the afternoon I was wondering why everyone in Springfield was out driving instead of working. :-)
Have great day!
I recognize that I'm not as good a driver as I used to be, too. I'm still fine, and I've never been at fault in an accident, but I can tell that my skills are declining over time. This is a modern paranoia based on late-night ambulance chaser ads, and I recognize that I'm still a fine driver, but I don't want to at some point get in a crash and get sued because I didn't notice a stop light or something. [Reply]
Originally Posted by -King-:
It's weird that some people think this is a political issue.
There are political factors in many things; most things, actually. There are gray areas when it comes to things like this. That's why sometimes I hate that we have to post certain things in DC. Sometimes, I would like a good, vibrant discussion with many different viewpoints. But I know that certain subjects will get relegated to DC no matter what. :-) [Reply]
