Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
It is very hard to guess when a stock is going to KEEP rising.
You buy it when it's going up it might get dumped shortly thereafter. Good way to become a goddamn bag holder.
I'd rather play it conservatively. I'll buy at 52-week or 6-month lows and bet on it going up in the short term. That has worked well for me.
That’s not playing conservatively, that’s more risky than my trading.
It’s what most people think and it’s why 90% of traders lose. A “cheap” stock is many times cheap for a reason and it’s harder for individual stocks to reverse a trend than continue a current one. That’s why you buy stocks while they trend higher and set stop losses on moves up to decrease downside risk and lock in made gains.
It’s ok if you don’t want to learn though. I’ve provided plenty of education in here and some people just prefer guessing without a plan, which is how you become a bag holder. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
I am not liking this market at all. Heavy selling into every up move. Market internals look like shit, overblown fear about Omicron......
If you are a long term investor I would be ready to start dipping in but I would go slow....
Originally Posted by petegz28:
we push much lower and we are going to have an outside day which can be good but yet still not good..
Originally Posted by lewdog:
That’s not playing conservatively, that’s more risky than my trading.
It’s what most people think and it’s why 90% of traders lose. A “cheap” stock is many times cheap for a reason and it’s harder for individual stocks to reverse a trend than continue a current one. That’s why you buy stocks while they trend higher and set stop losses on moves up to decrease downside risk and lock in made gains.
It’s ok if you don’t want to learn though. I’ve provided plenty of education in here and some people just prefer guessing without a plan, which is how you become a bag holder.
I should say if we get another outside day and we are about too...this will make the 2nd in 3 days and the 3rd since the sell off started which actually started with an outside day [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
As always you know everything. :-)
Nope, just trying to educate you. Trading isn’t about knowing everything. It’s about having a system where you only need to be correct 50% of the time to make money. And it surly isn’t guessing or buying stocks in a down trend.
I’m sorry you won’t listen to any advice that’s trying to help you. [Reply]
Originally Posted by lewdog:
Nope, just trying to educate you. Trading isn’t about knowing everything. It’s about having a system where you only need to be correct 50% of the time to make money. And it surly isn’t guessing or buying stocks in a down trend.
I’m sorry you won’t listen to any advice that’s trying to help you.
The "good traders" will tell you that you only need to be right 33% of the time. I call bullshit unless you are seriously funded to be able to scale in and out of several positions.
Day trading or swing trading stocks is tough because you have several factors to consider:
Screen the stocks
How is the overall market in relation to the stock
How is the overall sector in relation to the overall market
How is the overall sector in relation to the stock
Analyst "Recommendations" that move a stock quickly one way or the other
That's why I don't do it anymore. Finding the stocks is a pain and time consuming. If I do dabble in it I try to do it with a buy-write call spread or something.
I'd rather focus on the overall market, e.g. SPY, QQQ, etc. [Reply]
Originally Posted by lewdog:
It’s about having a system where you only need to be correct 50% of the time to make money. And it surly isn’t guessing or buying stocks in a down trend.
Originally Posted by petegz28:
The "good traders" will tell you that you only need to be right 33% of the time. I call bullshit unless you are seriously funded to be able to scale in and out of several positions.
Day trading or swing trading stocks is tough because you have several factors to consider:
Screen the stocks
How is the overall market in relation to the stock
How is the overall sector in relation to the overall market
How is the overall sector in relation to the stock
Analyst "Recommendations" that move a stock quickly one way or the other
That's why I don't do it anymore. Finding the stocks is a pain and time consuming. If I do dabble in it I try to do it with a buy-write call spread or something.
I'd rather focus on the overall market, e.g. SPY, QQQ, etc.
I’ve made money in months where I’m 40% accurate, but not lower than that. Goal is to always have win/loss ratio be of 2:1 or greater. It’s all about managing risk.
I trade on Mark Minervini principles. I pay for a screener that I can manipulate to look for stocks that meet certain rules. I can scan through a list of 700 stocks in about 30 minutes looking for certain patterns.
Originally Posted by petegz28:
If you want to gamble today, right now is a good time to buy the SPY if you think we will head back up towards the close. Seeing a good buying spot.
My concern though is people selling into the close not wanting to be long over the Omicron weekend....
No way I’m holding over the weekend given current conditions. [Reply]
Originally Posted by lewdog:
I’ve made money in months where I’m 40% accurate, but not lower than that. Goal is to always have win/loss ratio be of 2:1 or greater. It’s all about managing risk.
I trade on Mark Minervini principles. I pay for a screener that I can manipulate to look for stocks that meet certain rules. I can scan through a list of 700 stocks in about 30 minutes looking for certain patterns.
Since we are on the topic of books, if you have not ever looked into technical analysis and want to learn how to "read the charts" this is the Bible. I had the fist edition called Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets back in the early 90's but the concepts were for stocks as well. Murphy has since been noted as one of the best in the technical analysis arena.
I would read this well before you start reading any other books on trading that involve charts.
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Since we are on the topic of books, if you have not ever looked into technical analysis and want to learn how to "read the charts" this is the Bible. I had the fist edition called Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets back in the early 90's but the concepts were for stocks as well. Murphy has since been noted as one of the best in the technical analysis arena.
I would read this well before you start reading any other books on trading that involve charts.
