As expected we ran up to the 50 day SMA and are backing off. Today is looking like a classic reversal day. People most likely unloading today what they wish they unloaded 5 days ago. Doesn't mean we haven't set a short term bottom though. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
No. I read a book about 30 years ago titled "The Elliot Wave Principle" and while I believe Elliot Wave Theory is practical it is very hard to use. It is very subjective such as trendlines. However, from a general perspective it is very good to have an understanding and while I don't use it for forecasting, I do think it has a value in hindsight. Meaning it's good to look at what has happened to get a gauge on where you are or might be overall. So maybe a little forecasting but I don't do a lot of the projection stuff. I will slap on some retracements at times just to get a general idea of where the levels are going to be.
That’s where I’m at. If it can support a position, good. But forecasters are regularly wrong. [Reply]
Bought 1K worth of PUGE on 10/4 and I'm up a little over 50% while most of the OTC market has been flat. Just watched a video someone did talking about the company and it was pretty impressive. Was thinking about taking profit Monday but now think I'll just hold it long. It's only .0137 now and the 52 week is .0001 -.0144 . Thats a hell of a run.
Not suggesting to buy but Lew likes runners to be brought up preferably before they run but hell you don't know until they move. No sense in bringing failures to the board, right. I think this one has more gas myself. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Number of things....
Stochastic RSI is showing a divergence to price
ATR has probably peaked meaning volatility will come down
Adv\Dec line is not confirming lower low in price
Price is close to support set back in July
3rd wave of a possible ABC retracement
Support level set back on 9/20 is looking to hold for the moment
Volume on this last leg down was lighter than the first leg
Now I say short term as is a short term trading opportunity or a chance to sell into an upcoming rally. We still haven't fully reached the support levels from July and we could easily make another run down to the 200MA
I suspect however a run back up to the 50 day SMA and hopefully start seeing some sideways movement from there.
Now a lot of this can go to shit this afternoon if selling comes roaring in which is why I stated that today's price action is key.
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Well, a little quicker than I expected but we are about to butt up against the 50 day SMA on the SPY. I expect some kind of choppiness over the next couple of weeks as we see what happens with the current down trend.
The strength of the current down trend started showing weakness the last couple of days so we will see if it's a relief rally or if the trend is coming out.
Originally Posted by petegz28:
As expected we ran up to the 50 day SMA and are backing off. Today is looking like a classic reversal day. People most likely unloading today what they wish they unloaded 5 days ago. Doesn't mean we haven't set a short term bottom though.
Looking like we could very well be putting in a head and shoulders bottom. Today will be key. Volatility is still coming out of the market and the strength of the down trend has flattened for the moment.
However we could also be in a bit of a new trading range between 427-440 on the SPY. [Reply]
Well the sellers came in during the first hour and have taken us down so today is looking to end in the red right now. Still in good shape for a short term bottom as long as we don't see the bottom fall out in the next few days.
Talk today is that oil and inflation are peaking this week. We shall see. On another note, JPM killed it on earnings but their stock is getting routed along with the rest of the financial sector which has been one of the strong sectors recently. Apple is taking it on the chin today due to someone downgrading it, which means they want to buy it cheaper but the QQQ is doing better than the SPY overall which at least gives the impression we might be seeing some rotation and not a total sell off in stocks which lends itself to a possible short term bottom. [Reply]
I typically try to keep politics out of my investing but there are rare times when congress and\or the current Presidential Admin. can have significant impacts on the economy. We are in one of those rare times.
Excessively extended unemployment benefits from the Covid situation
Cutting off our domestic oil production then begging OPEC to pump more oil
Excessive spending at a time when labor and supply chains are strained
Vaccination\Mask policies that impact consumer consumption and school attendance
Some of those policies may well be justified but some are not. The mask\vax stuff is probably a necessary evil over all but the spending and energy policies are driving inflation.
On top of that you have threats of tax hikes and future spending that normally would be "meh" in the eyes of Wall St. having an impact because of everything else going on.
The Biden Admin. did probably the smartest thing they have done since taking office today in working to get our west coast ports open 24/7. Since trucking is one of the weakest links in the chain right now they need to reverse their policy on energy to get the costs of trucking down. You already have a driver shortage, you cannot dump higher fuel prices on top of that.
We are very much entering a Carter-type era where we are seeing high inflation coupled with bad energy policy.
Unfortunately, the near term answer is to curb spending, curb demand and drive people from their couch to the 11 million+ jobs that are out there, despite them not all being $150k paying jobs you work from home.
The Fed has begun tapering which needed to happen years ago but was delayed due to Covid. That's the monetary side. The fiscal side needs to get their house in order. [Reply]
