I just feel like everyone is going to spend all week talking about Mahomes' ankle or Burrow being a Demigod or Chase against this young secondary or Lou Anarumo being a psychopath...and then in the end it's just going to Samaje Perine bludgeoning Bolton and Gay to death.
As for Burrow, he is very Brady like in one regard. His defense carried him just like Brady, but unlike Brady (even early Brady) Burrow shrinks in the end of game moments in the playoffs. Thus, he missed his two best chances at winning one. [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
I do wonder when you will realize that this isn’t happening.
Will it be after Myles Garrett and Z’Darius Smith abuse your team’s “major upgrades” at T?
Or will it be when you realize that your offense has changed to include fewer seven step drops and more chips to help the LT because Brown can’t hold up against outside speed rushes?
Or will it be when you see how much money your superstars cost when they get off their rookie contracts?
You had your shot, Bud. You missed it.
There are no 7 step drops in this offense. Bengals are (T) 2nd in percentage of shotgun snaps and it's all pre-snap reads and timing. I've posted the stats for when Burrow had a decent offensive line last year, before injuries. Top rated QB in the NFL and only sacked 24 times in 12 games, which includes one game of 5 sacks.
The last 2 years he's played behind a bottom 5 offensive line in the playoffs each time and made a super bowl and another AFCCG. As bad as you say OBj is, he's still better than what they had.
The only thing keeping the Bengals from being the 2x defending champs right now is a really shitty, not just bad or average, offensive line. As long as they're healthy, this offense will be fine. [Reply]
Originally Posted by notorious:
Yeah, when they discover Brown sucks ass at blocking speed rushers it’s going to be glorious.
Burrow better turn into Lamar Jackson or he might die.
They're going to have to throw things short and quick. Which is fine and they can still be successful doing it, but Burrow is going to have to "escape" a lot, which exposes him to more hits. And they're going to lose some downfield explosiveness because they have to throw things short to have time/blocking hold up.
I've seen a few poke at Mahomes' average air yards last year, especially on TDs. Part of that is the offense evolving to handle the 2-deep safety looks, but some of it is also the offense evolving to cover for Wylie and Brown. [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
They're going to have to throw things short and quick. Which is fine and they can still be successful doing it, but Burrow is going to have to "escape" a lot, which exposes him to more hits. And they're going to lose some downfield explosiveness because they have to throw things short to have time/blocking hold up.
I've seen a few poke at Mahomes' average air yards last year, especially on TDs. Part of that is the offense evolving to handle the 2-deep safety looks, but some of it is also the offense evolving to cover for Wylie and Brown.
Burrow can do it, but say goodbye to the prayer jump ball throws he enjoys so much. [Reply]
Joey is 15 months youngers than Pat. And he's just done so, so much less with the opportunities he's been given.
And he's never gonna win shit until Pat retires(which will prolly be after Joey to be fair). Cincy fans should be ecstatic they get to watch their guy go against the GOAT however. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar:
Bengals fans are in for a rude awakening. They think that Burrow takes a lot of sacks simply because the OL has been poor, but his pressure to sack ratio is one of the worst in the league. 2nd worst in 2021. And his new LT is among the worst in the league in snaps per pressure.
Number of drop backs when under pressure:
Mahomes - 245
Burrow - 199
Mahomes had 46 more drop backs under pressure, they were sacked an equal amount of times and Mahomes was hit or hurried 47 times while Burrow was hit or hurried 7 times. Mahomes was responsible for 21% of the pressures while Burrow was responsible for 6%. The Bengals offensive line was responsible 93% of the time while the Chiefs were 74%. OBj was responsible 24% of the times and Williams was 27%.
Five sacks for each while Mahomes had 46 more drop backs makes his sack percentage way lower but that is offset by the amount of times he was hit or hurried on those drop backs. [Reply]
Originally Posted by mr. tegu:
The real kicker is they think Mahomes career success is due to his offensive line. Constantly see things like “if Burrow had his line…” so when they realize his LT was average at best will they revisit and say wow Mahomes was just that good? Doubt it.
Alex, I'll take "Things That Will Never Happen" for $1000. [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
They're going to have to throw things short and quick. Which is fine and they can still be successful doing it, but Burrow is going to have to "escape" a lot, which exposes him to more hits. And they're going to lose some downfield explosiveness because they have to throw things short to have time/blocking hold up.
I've seen a few poke at Mahomes' average air yards last year, especially on TDs. Part of that is the offense evolving to handle the 2-deep safety looks, but some of it is also the offense evolving to cover for Wylie and Brown.
That's exactly what the Bengals did last year. The teams mirror each other in consecutive years on how they needed to adapt. [Reply]
Zero TDs in the 4th quarter in the playoffs. They don't call him Joe Cool fot nothing. Cool as in ice cold in the 4th quarter of a playoff game. [Reply]
Originally Posted by rfaulk34:
There are no 7 step drops in this offense. Bengals are (T) 2nd in percentage of shotgun snaps and it's all pre-snap reads and timing. I've posted the stats for when Burrow had a decent offensive line last year, before injuries. Top rated QB in the NFL and only sacked 24 times in 12 games, which includes one game of 5 sacks.
The last 2 years he's played behind a bottom 5 offensive line in the playoffs each time and made a super bowl and another AFCCG. As bad as you say OBj is, he's still better than what they had.
The only thing keeping the Bengals from being the 2x defending champs right now is a really shitty, not just bad or average, offensive line. As long as they're healthy, this offense will be fine.
Didn’t this streak of greatness you’re referring to coincide with a really weak part of the schedule? Brings to mind when Bills fans were bragging about the #1 defense before KC hung 42 on them.
And of course you ignore the inconvenient fact that Burrow has one of the worst pressure to sack ratios in the NFL. And the other inconvenient fact that Brown is among the worst LTs in pressure rate.
Setting yourself up nicely for more disappointment I see. :-) [Reply]
Mahomes had 46 more drop backs under pressure, they were sacked an equal amount of times and Mahomes was hit or hurried 47 times while Burrow was hit or hurried 7 times. Mahomes was responsible for 21% of the pressures while Burrow was responsible for 6%. The Bengals offensive line was responsible 93% of the time while the Chiefs were 74%. OBj was responsible 24% of the times and Williams was 27%.
Five sacks for each while Mahomes had 46 more drop backs makes his sack percentage way lower but that is offset by the amount of times he was hit or hurried on those drop backs.
I bet you can find this exact post on the Seahawks board when they had Wilson trying to explain away his high sack numbers every year. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar:
Didn’t this streak of greatness you’re referring to coincide with a really weak part of the schedule? Brings to mind when Bills fans were bragging about the #1 defense before KC hung 42 on them.
And of course you ignore the inconvenient fact that Burrow has one of the worst pressure to sack ratios in the NFL. And the other inconvenient fact that Brown is among the worst LTs in pressure rate.
Setting yourself up nicely for more disappointment I see. :-)
I don't know about "weakest". It was weeks 3-15. The offensive line took 0 snaps together in preseason, Burrow was coming off appendectomy surgery and week 16 was the first of 3 consecutive weeks that they lost someone on the line.
The first 2 weeks were brutal with 13 total sacks. Sack to pressure i touched on a couple posts above. [Reply]
Mahomes had 46 more drop backs under pressure, they were sacked an equal amount of times and Mahomes was hit or hurried 47 times while Burrow was hit or hurried 7 times. Mahomes was responsible for 21% of the pressures while Burrow was responsible for 6%. The Bengals offensive line was responsible 93% of the time while the Chiefs were 74%. OBj was responsible 24% of the times and Williams was 27%.
Five sacks for each while Mahomes had 46 more drop backs makes his sack percentage way lower but that is offset by the amount of times he was hit or hurried on those drop backs.
First of all, how are they measuring "under pressure?" Does it seem a bit odd to you that only 5 of the 41 sacks Joe BUrrow took last year were deemed to have been "under pressure" sacks? This looks like PFF data... is that accurate?
Even if we took PFF's read on this as gospel (note: no one should, and it especially doesn't fly around here), the bolded piece is the part at which you should be looking. That's a small separation between Williams and Brown, and a lot of your fellow fans seem to think Brown is a transformative upgrade (and that's understandable, a lot of national pundits believe that, too).
There's also the matter of Burrow being sacked an additional 36 times in 2022 when not "Under pressure" by breakdown, vs. 21 times for Mahomes. That's where the need to escape will REALLY come in with Orlando Brown at LT.
When he faces an outside speed rush of any quality at all, Brown HAS to win ugly by pushing his man wide of the pocket. This is a tactic that works, generally, when you're on schedule and the ball comes out on time. When you have a QB holding the ball and waiting for things to develop down field, it's much more of an issue.
Mahomes and the Chiefs were able to make it work in 2022 and be an efficient offense by getting the ball out quicker, using the RB and multiple TE sets to chip the Es and slow down the outside rush, and having the best G-C-G trio in the NFL, which usually afforded Mahomes space to step up in the pocket.
That recipe wasn't there for Cincinnati a year ago.
And honestly, if this data set is designed to show how often a QB is sacked when his OL gives up quick pressure, I think the story it tells is a NEGATIVE for Cincinnati. If Burrow was sacked 36 times when his line did not give up "quick pressure," adding Orlando Brown Jr. at LT isn't really a fix for that. He's not going to get bull rushed often and give up quick pressure (unless a pass rusher with speed and power has been whipping him to the outside and he starts cheating there, then gets beat across his face), but that secondary pressure where you're 3-4 seconds into the play and the DE has run the arc and is bending back to pursue back towards the LOS is an issue for him.
This story isn't going to end how you and the Bengals think it is. [Reply]
