Also, I don't think most understand the magnitude of the gains we've seen. A nearly 90% rally since March 2020 lows. That just doesn't happen. The average return over time is 10% in the S&P.
And we aren't even seeing average decline in the S&P during bull market pullbacks while still following a bullish trend.
Originally Posted by :
The U.S. stock market is making it out of the coronavirus crisis, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are hitting record highs. Now what?
But after a monumental rebound from the March 2020 lows, the stock market went into a necessary consolidation. From its March 2020 low, the Nasdaq soared nearly 114% to a peak on Feb. 16. The composite then fell into a funk, pulling back as much as 13% before regaining the momentum that carried the index to record highs the past week.
"After a nearly 90% rally off the March 2020 lows, it's not much of a surprise that since mid-April the S&P 500 index has been choppy and generally moved sideways," Jeff Buchbinder, equity strategist at LPL Financial
Before 2020, the Nasdaq had four years of gains greater than 40% since its 1972 debut, according to Investor's Business Daily research. The best year after such a surge was the 16.9% advance in 2010, when the market was still recovering from the 2008 financial crisis. The worst annual performance after a 40%-plus gain was in 2000, when the dot-com bubble burst and the Nasdaq collapsed 39.3%.
Worth noting: The average maximum decline in the S&P 500 at any point in the second year of its bull markets was about 10%, Buchbinder wrote. This year, support at the 50-day moving average has kept S&P 500 pullbacks to no worse than 6%.
The market's flattening wouldn't be much of a problem for growth stock investors if enough stocks were rallying from breakouts. But gains have been possible only through great stock picking.
For many investors, even a 10% portfolio return has been difficult to achieve in 2021. Heavy churn in market leadership makes it harder for stocks to sustain runs and reach normal 20% to 25% gains from buy points.
Reflecting that frustration, most IBD stock lists are lagging the S&P 500 this year. Through Friday, the IBD 50 was up 9.7%, the Big Cap 20 9.5% and Sector Leaders 13.7%, the latter essentially matching the S&P 500.
Some analysts say this year's stock market has seen more sector rotation than usual.
Technically, the best stocks also distinguish themselves with sound base patterns The problem is that so many stock breakouts from proper buy points on a technical basis haven't been as productive this year as they normally would be. Taking profits at 10%, rather than the normal 20% to 25%, may be a useful strategy. (Holy shit, Lewdog has been preaching this in here!).
It's a little disingenuous touting market gains since March 2020 dont you think? Of course we've seen huge gains coming out of one of the worst crashes of all time. The 3 rounds of stimulus checks have a bit to do with it as well. [Reply]
Originally Posted by MTG#10:
It's a little disingenuous touting market gains since March 2020 dont you think? Of course we've seen huge gains coming out of one of the worst crashes of all time. The 3 rounds of stimulus checks have a bit to do with it as well.
I’m just providing data. All time highs also say you can’t blame the market if you’re losing money like some in here.
I’m just trying to provide facts for this thread instead of “this market sucks” while we set all time highs through a historic bull run. The bull run before 2020 was 11 years long (2009-2020). The average bull market is about 4 years. Investing since 2009 has been easy. [Reply]
That's fair. I keep telling myself it's time to liquidate before I get caught heavily invested during the inevitable pullback but every time I do we have an insane red day with deals too good to pass up. I gotta be strong and do it soon because I know its coming. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KChiefs1:
To be honest with you, it’s money I had earmarked for my kids to give to them before I passed on.
I decided that this was an opportunity to get a lot of money to buy a very nice house with beach access & acreage in Maui, where I would live until I died & then will it to the kids to use as a vacation place & have my ashes spread out on the beach so they could always remember me when they were there.
Sorta my legacy to future generations. Ego driven? Probably…but I know the kids would love it & I would love it while I can.
I'm rooting for you hard man. What's your average if you don't mind me asking?
Also if that bitch does squeeze you're going to be freaking LOADED! [Reply]
Originally Posted by lewdog:
DaFace, this is for you!
My 401k is in the following funds. I recommend index funds for 401k's since generally the expense ratios are super low. It really depends on what your company offers. The company I was with before this had absolutely crap fund options, all mutual funds and very expensive. I was so happy when the new company had tons of Vanguard options.
Vanguard 500 Index Fund - Admiral Class (awesome fund if you have access)
Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund - Admiral Class
Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund - Admiral Class
American Century Emerging Markets Fund - Class R6
Expense ratios of .04, .05, .05 and .91 respectively. I am invested 70% in the 500 index and 10% in the rest.
5 year rate of return on these funds is 16.26, 14.60, 14.97, 6.91. I have seen others discuss possibly dropping international exposure as it appears it lags US stocks for decades now for many funds when dollar cost averaging.
100% equities for me given that I am 35. I am not pulling for a market downturn but it would benefit me long term to see a very strong downward move where I just keep investing in these passive funds (maybe even more so).
I have T Rowe Price for my ROTH IRA and they are a bit more expensive for actively managed funds. But many have done very well and I can diversify a bit with 2 funds I like from them, one being a communication/tech fund and one being health sciences.
Expense ratios for the 5 actively managed I have with them range from .68 to .80. Their 5 year rate of returns have been better than my 401k, however. 24.08, 25.89, 20.48, 18.46, 15.05.
I'm a little more conservative (shocking, I know), so I've kept things fairly balanced. I mainly focus on expense ratios, and I'm in the Schwab ecosystem at least for now, so for a long time I was doing roughly:
60% SWTSX - Total Stock Market Index (0.03% ER)
20% SWISX - International Index (0.06% ER)
20% SWAGX - Aggregate Bond Index (0.04% ER)
After a while, though, I just realized that I just don't have much interest in putting a ton of thought into it (again, shouldn't be a surprise based on this thread). So with an interest in getting a little more diversification without having to think much about it, I'm mostly in this at this point:
SWYMX - Target 2050 Index (0.08% ER)
For other people who are lazy like me, I feel like index target date funds are a nice option. They take little to no thought and start out fairly aggressive (around 15% bonds 30 years out from the target date), then automatically shift to being more conservative as the date approaches. They also bring in a little real estate and emerging markets exposure, which I wasn't getting with my three-fund portfolio. And while it obviously makes the most sense to pick a target date for when you want to retire, you can kind of tweak the formula for how aggressive you want to be by bumping back the date a little further if you wish.
Anyway, no one is ever going to be excited by my approach, but every time I see people post about their portfolio's performance, and I compare it to mine, I'm always right there in the mix, which is all I'm looking for. I care far more about long-term consistency than I do about being at the top of the chart every time. [Reply]
Classic hedgefund psychological warfare with AMC this week. Keep it red for days, then really push it down followed by a nice green day to try and get people to sell after days of sweating the red. Probably worked on a few but the real apes have seen this trick a hundred times now. [Reply]
A little "insider" info for you guys. Tanger Outlets (SKT) earnings are coming up in a couple weeks and a good friend is a high executive at the Branson location. He is loading up on shares using an account in his brother's name, says their earnings are going to crush expectations for this quarter. I know great earnings don't mean a lot for stock prices in this retarded market but it is also heavily shorted and has some Reddit attention. [Reply]