Football It's 4th & 1 - Page 6

Jerome Bettis
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Originally Posted by LoneWolf:
My mother in law. Nobody can stop that bitch once she gets a full head of steam.

Marcus dove over the line of scrimmage, making him almost unstoppable on 3rd and one from the goal line. I read back through half the thread, and didn't see any Barry Sanders mentions, probably because that dude converted on too many first and tens.
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Splits on pro-football reference.

They don't have them for anything prior to 1994 so I was a little disappointed that I couldn't find Allen's career stats.

Then I saw how hilariously insane his stats with KC were and decided I didn't care that much. I mean seriously? 85% of the time they gave him the ball on 3rd and short he converted? What in the cheat coding **** is that?!?!

Ah. I was looking there and I must have missed them.
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I'm running splits on PFR for the Chiefs players, and here are the results for the seven players since 1994 who had 30 or more attempts on 3rd down and 1-3 yards. (I'm too lazy to combine with 4th and 1-3, so you'll take this and like it.

0.841 - Marcus Allen (58 of 69)
0.709 - Larry Johnson (61 of 86)
0.696 - Tony Richardson (32 of 46)
0.663 - Priest Holmes (55 of 83)
0.656 - Spencer Ware (21 of 32)
0.649 - Jamaal Charles (37 of 57)
0.581 - Donnell Bennett (25 of 43)

I'll note that Jamaal had the largest yards/attempt in this situation, which means he broke more runs off for large gains. Larry and Priest had a ton of touchdowns in these situations, which means their yards per attempt is going to be underrated. But the bottom line is, yeah, give it to Marcus.

If I take away the 30 attempts rule, then we find the real king of 3rd and short for the Chiefs, which is of course Trent Green. But you're in good hands when Patrick Mahomes II decides to run as well.

Of course, I suspect QBs have an advantage here on 3rd down because they're probably deciding to run it when they see a lane, and they don't run often when they don't.

If we're just talking running backs, your best bet after Marcus Allen is Shaun Draughn or Rashan Shehee. But I bet you knew that already.

On another note, Kareem Hunt has historically good at 3rd and short just in case we need that.

1 - Trent Green (8 of 8)
1 - Travis Kelce (1 of 1)
1 - Todd Collins (1 of 1)
1 - Tamarick Vanover (1 of 1)
1 - Shaun Smith (1 of 1)
1 - Noah Gray (1 of 1)
1 - Leroy Thompson (4 of 4)
1 - Joe Montana (1 of 1)
1 - Dontari Poe (1 of 1)
1 - De'Anthony Thomas (1 of 1)
1 - Darwin Thompson (3 of 3)
1 - Cyrus Gray (2 of 2)
1 - Brodie Croyle (1 of 1)
1 - Blake Bell (3 of 3)
1 - Albert Wilson (1 of 1)
0.917 - Patrick Mahomes (22 of 24)
0.841 - Marcus Allen (58 of 69)
0.833 - Steve Bono (5 of 6)
0.833 - Shaun Draughn (5 of 6)
0.833 - Rich Gannon (5 of 6)
0.833 - Rashaan Shehee (5 of 6)
0.833 - Anthony Sherman (5 of 6)
0.81 - Alex Smith (17 of 21)
0.8 - Dantrell Savage (4 of 5)
0.769 - Jackie Battle (10 of 13)
0.765 - Kareem Hunt (13 of 17)
0.75 - Tyler Thigpen (3 of 4)
0.75 - Derrick Blaylock (6 of 8)
0.737 - Charcandrick West (14 of 19)
0.727 - Michael Burton (8 of 11)
0.709 - Larry Johnson (61 of 86)
0.696 - Tony Richardson (32 of 46)
0.692 - Matt Cassel (9 of 13)
0.667 - Samaje Perine (2 of 3)
0.667 - LeSean McCoy (4 of 6)
0.667 - Dante Hall (2 of 3)
0.663 - Priest Holmes (55 of 83)
0.656 - Spencer Ware (21 of 32)
0.65 - Isiah Pacheco (13 of 20)
0.649 - Jamaal Charles (37 of 57)
0.636 - Damien Williams (7 of 11)
0.625 - Frank Moreau (5 of 8)
0.625 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire (10 of 16)
0.6 - Elvis Grbac (3 of 5)
0.591 - Darrel Williams (13 of 22)
0.581 - Donnell Bennett (25 of 43)
0.556 - Jerick McKinnon (5 of 9)
0.545 - Dexter McCluster (6 of 11)
0.538 - Bam Morris (7 of 13)
0.526 - Kolby Smith (10 of 19)
0.5 - Tyler Palko (1 of 2)
0.5 - Peyton Hillis (4 of 8)
0.5 - Mike Cloud (3 of 6)
0.5 - Michael Bennett (1 of 2)
0.5 - La'Mical Perine (1 of 2)
0.5 - Kimble Anders (8 of 16)
0.5 - Kadarius Toney (1 of 2)
0.5 - Javier Arenas (1 of 2)
0.5 - Carson Steele (1 of 2)
0.444 - Greg Hill (4 of 9)
0.364 - Knile Davis (4 of 11)
0.353 - Thomas Jones (6 of 17)
0.333 - Tyreek Hill (2 of 6)
0.333 - Le'Veon Bell (1 of 3)
0.333 - Derrick Gore (1 of 3)
0 - Tim Castille (0 of 2)
0 - Rashee Rice (0 of 1)
0 - Nate Eachus (0 of 1)
0 - Mecole Hardman (0 of 1)
0 - Le'Ron McClain (0 of 1)
0 - Kyle Orton (0 of 1)
0 - Gilbert Harris (0 of 1)
0 - Dee Brown (0 of 2)
0 - Damon Huard (0 of 1)
0 - Brady Quinn (0 of 1)
0 - Akeem Hunt (0 of 1)
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Originally Posted by Calcountry:
Marcus dove over the line of scrimmage, making him almost unstoppable on 3rd and one from the goal line. I read back through half the thread, and didn't see any Barry Sanders mentions, probably because that dude converted on too many first and tens.

Yeah Barry was dynamite on a 3rd & 10 draw, but he was maybe the worst ever HOF'er at short yardage... dude lost a lotta yards looking for the homerun in short situations
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Prime LaDanian Tomlinson?
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Marcus Allen
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Mike alstott or jerome bettis

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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1998 Terrell Davis
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I took a look at all of the players who made more than 30 first downs on 3rd and 1-3 yards. Here's their success rate. As you'll see, the top of the list is dominated by quarterbacks, who had latitude to run or pass, with likely a lot of improvised runs.

The bottom of the list may be a bit unfair, because there may be some guys who had a lot of attempts and converted fewer than 30. There doesn't seem to be a way to build a list that way on PFR, so we may be missing some of the least effective players. We can say definitively that Michael Pittman should not be given the ball in this situation, though.

Note that Mahomes is at .917 (22 of 24), but doesn't have enough conversions to get on the list yet.

Spoiler!

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If we filter out the quarterbacks, here's the list. Again, this ranks only guys who converted 30+ plays that were 3rd and 1-3 yards.

It appears that the kings of 3rd and short are fullbacks, believe it or not. It really shows how amazing Marcus Allen was that he's up there with the clydesdale running backs.

The median guy on this list is Tiki Barber at 0.652 likelihood, so anyone above him is above average. The top ten percent starts with John Kuhn at .727 likelihood.

Spoiler!

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Jalen Hurts and the tush push is basically unstoppable. Special mention, Mike Alstott
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