Originally Posted by Rausch:
I would disagree with that.
It's clearly the easiest position to become productive from off the bat but...
Gurley, MJD, Priest Holmes, LJ, hell I could name 20 guys that didn't bust out their rookie year...
Okay, first of all (and I should not have to explain this, but I always do) patterns do not mean something is universally true 100% of the time . #notall
Outliers exist in everything, and pointing them out does nothing to disprove anything about the general trend. You'll notice the word 'usually', which OBVIOUSLY implies the existence of outliers.
Priest didn't have a carry in his first season and was recovering from a knee injury. His first season as a starter he was productive. I never said anything about 'break out superstar', I said productive.
MJD rushed for over 900 yards at 5.7 yards per carry as a BACK UP. He was very productive right away.
Gurley had 10 TD's, over 1100 yards, and averaged 4.8 YPC as a rookie. Didn't he win offensive rookie of the year?!
These guys aren't even outliers. Thomas Jones is a more viable outlier, as he did improve enough to become a decent RB.
If a rookie comes in averaging 3.4 YPC on 200 carries, they almost never become anything productive.
I omit Larry Johnson, because it takes a long time to explain why I think he was ALWAYS over-rated and that his one spectacular season was a fluke. His vision was trash. Always. There's a reason I wanted to trade him after his 2005 season... [Reply]
Originally Posted by WhiteWhale:
This is why I always say RB is hands down the most 'immediate impact' position on offense.
RB's need to learn routes. They need to learn protections. With the ball in their hand, it's all football instincts. If a RB isn't productive running as a rookie, he usually never is.
Also, I'm standing by my pre draft assessment that Fournette is a 3.5 YPC back. I don't see what made everyone drool.
You've got the "usually" caveat in there so you're not wrong but Leveon Bell only averaged 3.5 YPC his rookie year. LT only averaged 3.6. We can't close the book on Fournette just yet. [Reply]
Originally Posted by ThaVirus:
You've got the "usually" caveat in there so you're not wrong but Leveon Bell only averaged 3.5 YPC his rookie year. LT only averaged 3.6. We can't close the book on Fournette just yet.
I'm not closing the book on Fournette. I made my prediction before his first preseason game, and so far he's looked like the guy I expected. That's all.
You got me on Bell though. He was like a totally different guy in year 2. [Reply]
Originally Posted by WhiteWhale:
I'm not closing the book on Fournette. I made my prediction before his first preseason game, and so far he's looked like the guy I expected. That's all.
You got me on Bell though. He was like a totally different guy in year 2.
Ok.. and yeah. Bell really was like a totally different guy. Even his running style changed. I wonder how the hell that happens..
Interesting thing with Fournette for me is that he recently stated that he was already adjusted to the NFL's game speed but here he is averaging less than 4 YPC. IIRC, he averaged less than 4 YPC throughout the preseason as well. So for him you may just be right in the end. [Reply]
Yea I’m starting to question Fournette myself. I mean 3.5 YPC is just awful.
I know some people will point to the Jags offense and in particular their OL, but Ivory and Yeldon weren’t even that bad, and that was without the real commitment to running the football. [Reply]
Originally Posted by ThaVirus:
Ok.. and yeah. Bell really was like a totally different guy. Even his running style changed. I wonder how the hell that happens..
Interesting thing with Fournette for me is that he recently stated that he was already adjusted to the NFL's game speed but here he is averaging less than 4 YPC. IIRC, he averaged less than 4 YPC throughout the preseason as well. So for him you may just be right in the end.
With regards to Bell, I dunno. He's a true outlier, and a great RB. I love his style. He's smooth AF.
:-) Fournette said that after the very first preseason game... against the patriots... who had forty guys that didn't even suit up for the game.
I don't think he's explosive (he is fast though), which is a problem in the NFL because LB's get downhill very fast. I didn't see him do a great job making guys miss in the backfield.
What I saw from him was when he has a full head of steam he's like trying to tackle a stampeding bull. He ran over college DB's like they were children. He has a potentially great season in him as long as he has an elite group blocking for him and ensuring he has that time to get to his dangerous speed.
What I saw from Hunt was him constantly bouncing off of tackles from linemen and linebackers in his own backfield. That shit carries over to the NFL. When you see a guy consistently making guys miss in the backfield, he's usually got something. The biggest worry about him is the tread on the tires. [Reply]
Originally Posted by WhiteWhale:
I omit Larry Johnson, because it takes a long time to explain why I think he was ALWAYS over-rated and that his one spectacular season was a fluke. His vision was trash. Always. There's a reason I wanted to trade him after his 2005 season...
Nonsense. Before his body broke down his vision was on display in space. He ran a lot like Robert Smith, weaving his way down field by taking good early angles to beat defenders one after the other. [Reply]
Originally Posted by penchief:
Nonsense. Before his body broke down his vision was on display in space. He ran a lot like Robert Smith, weaving his way down field by taking good early angles to beat defenders one after the other.
There's a lot of revisionist history on LJ because of his shitty attitude and lack of production after 06.
05 and 06 he was absolutely elite in every way, though. [Reply]
Originally Posted by :
Through the first four games, he's gained an average of 6.1 more yards after a defender closes within one yard of him (NFL average is 3.6), leading the NFL among running backs with more than 25 carries.
For comparison's sake, Elliott in 2016 averaged 4.4 yards after defenders closed within a yard of him. He ranked third in that category among backs with more than 200 carries. Elliott is a special player in the open field, a threat to break tackles and take any run for six. So far, Hunt looks like Elliott's equal in that regard.
One area where Hunt does appear to have an edge on Elliott is in the passing game. Hunt has made several big catches in the early portions of his rookie campaign, whereas Zeke was less of a factor with less than 40 catches back in 2016. Hunt averaged 3.5 air yards per target, a notably high rate for running backs. Slot receivers like Randall Cobb and Jarvis Landry sit at 5.9 and 5.6 on the season, for comparison.
Elliott's blending with the Cowboys fabled offensive line made for the ingredients to an ideal dish. Elliott averaged 0.6 yards before a defender closed within a yard of him, doubling the league average of 0.3. The Next Gen Stats help to quantify the dominance of Dallas' 2016 and also help show that their decline this year is dragging Elliott back to mere mortal levels of production.
Through four games, the argument can be made that Hunt enjoys an even better cast of characters opening lanes for him. The rookie back averages a whopping 1.3 yards before a defender closes within a yard of him this season.
