Because of all the interest in this thread, I've place all of the video content of Patrick Mahomes II's college career, and draft day goodness into a single post that can be found here. Enjoy! [Reply]
Let's quantify Mahomes sitting for X amount of time.
Smith has averaged 955 snaps over the last four years which averages out to 60 per game. Further, let's assume that Reid's offense does in fact take over a season for a QB to get a handle of and this can be backed up by looking at Smith's QB rating, such that it took 20 games for Smiths' rating to show a sustained level of average play in earning a rating of at least 80 without instances of earning below an 80 in consecutive or nearly consecutive weeks from that point onward.
In the aforementioned parameters, this would imply Smith became proficient in Reid's offense by the away game to San Diego in 2014, given that he only had four sub-80 performances in the next 32 games. By that point in the season and his 20 game career in Kansas City, Smith had taken 1,310 in-game snaps.
Assuming it'll take Mahomes taking a league average number of snaps (roughly 64 over the last five years) and it will similarly take Mahomes 20 games before it can be reasonably assumed that he has at least average handle on how to manage an Andy Reid offensive game plan.
Therefore if Mahomes sits the entirety of this year, it won't be until maybe the first quarter of the 2019 season before it looks like he's had enough experience to definitively be the starting QB. That also means the FO has less than a full season of play to determine whether or not to exercise his fifth year option. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
Let's quantify Mahomes sitting for X amount of time.
Smith has averaged 955 snaps over the last four years which averages out to 60 per game. Further, let's assume that Reid's offense does in fact take over a season for a QB to get a handle of and this can be backed up by looking at Smith's QB rating, such that it took 20 games for Smiths' rating to show a sustained level of average play in earning a rating of at least 80 without instances of earning below an 80 in consecutive or nearly consecutive weeks from that point onward.
In the aforementioned parameters, this would imply Smith became proficient in Reid's offense by the away game to San Diego in 2014, given that he only had four sub-80 performances in the next 32 games. By that point in the season and his 20 game career in Kansas City, Smith had taken 1,310 in-game snaps.
Assuming it'll take Mahomes taking a league average number of snaps (roughly 64 over the last five years) and it will similarly take Mahomes 20 games before it can be reasonably assumed that he has at least average handle on how to manage an Andy Reid offensive game plan.
Therefore if Mahomes sits the entirety of this year, it won't be until maybe the first quarter of the 2019 season before it looks like he's had enough experience to definitively be the starting QB. That also means the FO has less than a full season of play to determine whether or not to exercise his fifth year option.
In a perfect world scenario PM would get this year to sit and learn.
He would only start next year if Smith is cut/traded or hurt.
Most would agree the largest leap comes in year 3 of a QB starting.
So if PM were to sit we'd have to pick up the 5th year option before seeing his best work. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Halfcan:
Alex throws an INT in the end zone to cost us a game- it is reported as "miscommunication" with the wide receiver.
Mahomes throws a pass in preseason that hits the receiver right in the hands, he whiffs and it is ALMOST an INT- this kid is raw, a gunslinger, doesn't know what he is doing out there, terrible footwork, can't play in the structure of the game, bad mechanics, horrible decision making, scared to play in the pocket, a LOSER!!
Sounds like CP's Four Amigos of Smith Slurpin' are hanging out at the radio station with the rest of the mindless losers. Keep in mind these are the same useless bags of colostomy seasoning that supported Cassel.
Originally Posted by Coogs:
He just paying rent. Mahomes owns the team. Look at the sidelines when Mahomes is playing. Whole damn team is right on the sideline wanting to see.
So very true. The team is practically up in Reid's grille saying, "WTF,MAN"?!?!?
The greatest and most important dynamic that KC has been missing for decades has finally been found and acquired, and he's an absolute super star beyond ANYTHING the Chiefs have ever trotted out on to the field post-Montana.
Mind bendingly AWESOME days ahead.
Once we take the Frisco trash out, of course.
Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy:
Lol at you idiots getting excited over preseason... Once Mahomes does it when it counts then I will get excited.
Alex prays to god nightly that Mahomes will never get a chance to "do it when it counts", because he knows Saint Patrick is going to make him look like the middling, pussyfarting has-been that he truly is.
Mahomes has the mentality of a fighter, and a skilled one at that.
Smith just comes from....different, and lesser stock. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rausch: In a perfect world scenario PM would get this year to sit and learn.
He would only start next year if Smith is cut/traded or hurt.
Most would agree the largest leap comes in year 3 of a QB starting.
So if PM were to sit we'd have to pick up the 5th year option before seeing his best work.
So if someone watches others drive cars on the street for a year before they actually get behind the wheel-that will make them better drivers? If Mahomes sits on the bench and watches General Smitty Checkdown for a year-that is going to make him a better QB?
You learn by doing. Mahomes will have to take his lumps even if he sits a year behind Smith in a lost season. So I guess people are saying he will take fewer lumps after a clipboard year?
Mahomes showed he is a fast learner. If needed he could come in and at least learn the weekly game plan to direct the offense. Andy would not have promoted him the #2 over Bray (who has had 5 years of "watching") and still can't do what Mahomes does.
Let Alex start VS. the Pats- and prove that he is SOOO improved like all the training camp stories have hyped up. If he is the same old ineffective Alex-Yank his ass.
The team would be much better with a young and inexperienced GAME CHANGER that can motivate and inspire to greatness - than an aging GAME MANAGER that makes the offense want to just quit and punt every 3rd and long. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Halfcan:
So if someone watches others drive cars on the street for a year before they actually get behind the wheel-that will make them better drivers? If Mahomes sits on the bench and watches General Smitty Checkdown for a year-that is going to make him a better QB?
You learn by doing. Mahomes will have to take his lumps even if he sits a year behind Smith in a lost season. So I guess people are saying he will take fewer lumps after a clipboard year?
Mahomes showed he is a fast learner. If needed he could come in and at least learn the weekly game plan to direct the offense. Andy would not have promoted him the #2 over Bray (who has had 5 years of "watching") and still can't do what Mahomes does.
Let Alex start VS. the Pats- and prove that he is SOOO improved like all the training camp stories have hyped up. If he is the same old ineffective Alex-Yank his ass.
The team would be much better with a young and inexperienced GAME CHANGER that can motivate and inspire to greatness - than an aging GAME MANAGER that makes the offense want to just quit and punt every 3rd and long.
There's a ton of truth to this post. I've always wondered about sitting a good QB on the bench . I mean you have to continually practice to improve or even sustain your talent. I know he will get practice squad reps but it's not the same.
I agree , if alex shits the bed against NE then give it to Mahomy. [Reply]
The team would be much better with a young and inexperienced GAME CHANGER that can motivate and inspire to greatness - than an aging GAME MANAGER that makes the offense want to just quit and punt every 3rd and long.
Again, the dynamic is the more important aspect than ball control, minimal INT's, and all of the other Smith "positives" that the hopeless Smith acolytes love to parade about.
I love seeing the team get fired-up on the sideline when Money starts making it rain.
You can not buy that.
You can not coach that.
It's either there or it's not. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hog Farmer:
There's a ton of truth to this post. I've always wondered about sitting a good QB on the bench . I mean you have to continually practice to improve or even sustain your talent. I know he will get practice squad reps but it's not the same.
I agree , if alex shits the bed against NE then give it to Mahomy.
Again, we've reached the point where sitting is absolutely pointless for Mahomes.
He's proven that he can function.
He's proven that he can work the LOS and the play book.
He's DEFINITELY fucking proven that he can inspire and lead.
THE WHOLE THING.
There's nothing to do now but build on what he has shown us. [Reply]
You learn by doing. Mahomes will have to take his lumps even if he sits a year behind Smith in a lost season. So I guess people are saying he will take fewer lumps after a clipboard year?
Rodgers was 6-10 in his first year as a starter and didn't get a playoff win until his fourth season; that was his seventh year in the league by that point.
I'll guarantee a non-zero percent of people who now are saying he needs to sit for a year at a minimum will be calling him a bust if he doesn't get a playoff victory before 2022. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hog Farmer:
There's a ton of truth to this post. I've always wondered about sitting a good QB on the bench . I mean you have to continually practice to improve or even sustain your talent. I know he will get practice squad reps but it's not the same.
I agree , if alex shits the bed against NE then give it to Mahomy.
We keep hearing how Andy's offense is the most complicated offense ever created - but what we Actually see on the field is an offense that is so predictable the defense seems to know what is coming on a majority of plays.
So how can it be both?
Be honest- who feels that Al Saunders offense was more complicated? Trent had to deal with multiple shifts, pre-count, then if he still didn't get the matchups he wanted, had to audible and go through more shifts.
We don't see that from Alex- and besides a few gadget plays here and there mostly involving Poe- it seems like the same game plan every week.
If Andy is an Offensive genius- how could he not design a game plan within Mahomes limited scope of knowledge, that is both within the current system but yet open ended to take advantage of Mahomes ability to extend plays for huge gains? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
Rodgers was 6-10 in his first year as a starter and didn't get a playoff win until his fourth season; that was his seventh year in the league by that point.
I'll guarantee a non-zero percent of people who now are saying he needs to sit for a year at a minimum will be calling him a bust if he doesn't get a playoff victory before 2022.
Yep, the Packers had some lean years. I don't think that was on Rodgers though-he was a bright spot on those teams.
Alex is not HOFer Brett Favre and Mahomes is not Rodgers (but has some of the same natural talent) - that said- I don't think the dropoff in QB play would be that much if Mahomes starts.
The team would rally around him unlike they do Smith. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Sweet Daddy Hate:
Again, we've reached the point where sitting is absolutely pointless for Mahomes.
He's proven that he can function.
He's proven that he can work the LOS and the play book.
He's DEFINITELY ****ing proven that he can inspire and lead.
THE WHOLE THING.
There's nothing to do now but build on what he has shown us.
Has Peters and Houston ever jumped around for Smith like they did Mahomes? Ever?
I am not sure why -(If Smith comes out and Fails) anyone would not want to see the Chiefs led by the most exciting and talented QB in the draft? :-) [Reply]
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
Rodgers was 6-10 in his first year as a starter and didn't get a playoff win until his fourth season; that was his seventh year in the league by that point.
What?
Rodgers was drafted in 2005 and became the Packers starter in 2008 with a record of 6-10.
In 2009, the Packers were 11-5 and 0-1 in the playoffs.
In 2010, the Packers were 10-6 and 4-0 in the playoffs, winning the Super Bowl.
He won the Super Bowl in his 3rd season as a starter and 6th year in the league.
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
I'll guarantee a non-zero percent of people who now are saying he needs to sit for a year at a minimum will be calling him a bust if he doesn't get a playoff victory before 2022.
Originally Posted by Halfcan:
We keep hearing how Andy's offense is the most complicated offense ever created - but what we Actually see on the field is an offense that is so predictable the defense seems to know what is coming on a majority of plays.
So how can it be both?
Be honest- who feels that Al Saunders offense was more complicated? Trent had to deal with multiple shifts, pre-count, then if he still didn't get the matchups he wanted, had to audible and go through more shifts.
We don't see that from Alex- and besides a few gadget plays here and there mostly involving Poe- it seems like the same game plan every week.
If Andy is an Offensive genius- how could he not design a game plan within Mahomes limited scope of knowledge, that is both within the current system but yet open ended to take advantage of Mahomes ability to extend plays for huge gains?
Al Saunders had no audible options in his offense. [Reply]
