Originally Posted by jjchieffan:
Back to 2011 a lot has changed. Look at how KC dominated Denver last year. I see no reason to think that trend won't continue this year.
I suspect (or maybe it's hope) the Broncos will be much better near the end of the season than they are at the beginning. Hopefully we can find someone to throw the ball before the halfway point.
I think KC will have some shootouts. The O looks to be much improved, but the D without Smith and Houston (for at least part of the season) will struggle against the pass, and they've never been great against the run under Reid. [Reply]
Originally Posted by jjchieffan:
Yeah, I remember that. I was asking Vailpass for his take. After seeing Sanchez flounder so badly, do you still think Denver pulls out 9 wins? I just don't see it. This is a quarterbaxk driven league. How do you win more than you lose with arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league?
I made my projections knowing that Sanchez is a warm sack of poo... don't know why I'd change it now. [Reply]
Originally Posted by MagicHef:
I suspect (or maybe it's hope) the Broncos will be much better near the end of the season than they are at the beginning. Hopefully we can find someone to throw the ball before the halfway point.
I think KC will have some shootouts. The O looks to be much improved, but the D without Smith and Houston (for at least part of the season) will struggle against the pass, and they've never been great against the run under Reid.
Chiefs were top 10 in rush D in stats and PFF last season. [Reply]
Originally Posted by vailpass:
For me this is an especially hard year to make predictions. 3rd pre-season game is supposed to be a dress rehearsal for the 1st teamers but this year for Denver it's still a QB try-out. That is really not good at this point in the preseason.
But Denver has built a solid championship foundation on both sides of the ball to the point they can win through without an elite QB. 6-10 as the ceiling for the SB champs? I predict they will have a better record than that.
For KC, I admire the strides they've made over the last few years. They have a nice offense that is efficient if not prolific. After Maclin and Kelce there is nothing proven at either position though.
11 wins to close the year last year speaks for itself yet it can't be argued they played some 2nd string QBs and won't have that break this year. Nor will they have any CBs besides Peters.I just don't see KC's D as being good enough this year to keep them in low scoring games and I still don't see their O as being able to stand toe-to-toe in a scoring battle.
12-4? I predict they will have a worse record than that.
So, we'll see.
A championship team on both sides of the ball?? Really?? No quarterback, no offensive line, no running back. The only thing that Denver has on offense is Thomas and Sanders, but they won't be any help without a quarterback to get them the ball or an offensive line to buy them time to get open. That is quite homeristic. I expect that from KnowShit, but you know better. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RunKC:
Chiefs were top 10 in rush D in stats and PFF last season.
I don't know about PFF, but KC was 18th in YPC allowed, which was a huge improvement over 2014 (30th) and 2013 (26th). Again, not great against the run under Reid. [Reply]
Originally Posted by MagicHef:
I don't know about PFF, but KC was 18th in YPC allowed, which was a huge improvement over 2014 (30th) and 2013 (26th). Again, not great against the run under Reid.
But yet we were 8th in run defense.
Going by YPC, the Bucs and Jags had top 5 run defenses. Do you really believe that? [Reply]
Originally Posted by jjchieffan:
A championship team on both sides of the ball?? Really?? No quarterback, no offensive line, no running back. The only thing that Denver has on offense is Thomas and Sanders, but they won't be any help without a quarterback to get them the ball or an offensive line to buy them time to get open. That is quite homeristic. I expect that from KnowShit, but you know better.
Anderson and Booker (rookie) will prove to be a solid RB duo, the OL is the possible problem there. We will see. [Reply]
Originally Posted by staylor26:
But yet we were 8th in run defense.
Going by YPC, the Bucs and Jags had top 5 run defenses. Do you really believe that?
Bad teams get run on more because they are often losing near the end of the game. This inflates their total run yardage allowed, but not their YPC allowed.
Yes, I believe both the Bucs (McCoy, David) and the Jags (Alualu, Posluszny) are both pretty good against the run. [Reply]
Originally Posted by MagicHef:
Bad teams get run on more because they are often losing near the end of the game. This inflates their total run yardage allowed, but not their YPC allowed.
Yes, I believe both the Bucs (McCoy, David) and the Jags (Alualu, Posluszny) are both pretty good against the run.
I'm just pointing out that you're cherry picking stats.
We're just going to pretend that the Chiefs weren't a top 10 run defense because of 4.0 YPC (which is pretty close to those ranked around that are)?
The Jags and Bucs run defense was not even as good as the Chiefs last year, and definitely significantly better.
Our pass rush and pass defense was really good, so why didn't teams just run it down our throat if that's the case? [Reply]
Originally Posted by jjchieffan:
A championship team on both sides of the ball?? Really?? No quarterback, no offensive line, no running back. The only thing that Denver has on offense is Thomas and Sanders, but they won't be any help without a quarterback to get them the ball or an offensive line to buy them time to get open. That is quite homeristic. I expect that from KnowShit, but you know better.
I mean that end to end Elway has shored up all phases of the team resulting in a solid foundation and a winning culture. I understand the desperation some of you probably feel in wanting the Bronco dominance to evaporate overnight.
The good thing is the live rounds start flying in a couple weeks then we'll get to stop speculating and see how it unfolds. [Reply]
Originally Posted by staylor26:
I'm just pointing out that you're cherry picking stats.
We're just going to pretend that the Chiefs weren't a top 10 run defense because of 4.0 YPC (which is pretty close to those ranked around that are)?
The Jags and Bucs run defense was not even as good as the Chiefs last year, and definitely significantly better.
Our pass rush and pass defense was really good, so why didn't teams just run it down our throat if that's the case?
Looking at YPC isn't cherry picking, it's using the most useful data. Teams didn't run all the time because A) KC wasn't terrible against the run, simply middle of the pack; B) While the offense wasn't racking up yards, KC was pretty adept at putting points on the board, and other teams likely felt that they needed to pass to keep up.
Also, I'd say the Bucs and Jags were better than KC at run defense in 2015. Using Pro Football Reference's Expected Points Added (which looks at the down, distance, and field position of each play), they both added more value to their teams' seasons than KC's run defense (40.60 and 39.17 points vs KC's 34.08). Both of their defenses were vastly worse than KC's against the pass, of course. [Reply]
Originally Posted by MagicHef:
Looking at YPC isn't cherry picking, it's using the most useful data. Teams didn't run all the time because A) KC wasn't terrible against the run, simply middle of the pack; B) While the offense wasn't racking up yards, KC was pretty adept at putting points on the board, and other teams likely felt that they needed to pass to keep up.
Also, I'd say the Bucs and Jags were better than KC at run defense in 2015. Using Pro Football Reference's Expected Points Added (which looks at the down, distance, and field position of each play), they both added more value to their teams' seasons than KC's run defense (40.60 and 39.17 points vs KC's 34.08). Both of their defenses were vastly worse than KC's against the pass, of course.
It's cherry picking because the difference between the 10th best YPC team and the Chiefs at 18 is .1. That's ridiculous. [Reply]
The Titans, Jaguars, and Bucs were all top 10 in YPC. They all play in shit divisions. You don't to The a Titans and Jags #'s look better than they are when they faces the Colts, Texans, and each other 6 times? Every team in their divisions running game is shit. The Bucs also played all of those teams last year.
When trying to rank run defenses, it just doesn't work. I mean sure, you can see a team like the Bengals that's in the top 10 with 4.3 YPC and say they're probably a fluke. [Reply]
