Originally Posted by Rain Man:
What do we think about the four companies in this article? https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/...-rich-in-2021/
I'm particularly intrigued by SE. I actually picked up a little bit of 3 of these stocks. (Screw pinterest - you mess up my searches.)
I own 3 of them but one is Pinterest. I'll make a couple of posts
NextEraEnergy (NEE)
I've held this for years and it's been a good business to own. It pays a pretty piddly dividend for a utility but a lot of it is it's stock price has appreciated quickly for a utility. It's raised the dividend by 10% or more every year it seems like.
It's original business (and prior name) is Florida Power & Light. It serves about half of Florida. The new name isn't bullshit though they are a huge renewable energy producer. I'm pretty sure they're the largest renewable energy producing utility in the world. Though there are some other big companies that aren't utilities like Vestas.
If you want to look at it, their "drop down company" is publicly listed as NEP. I think it was a MLP so I noped the fuck out but it pays more dividend. I've not reallly paid attention to how it's performed. My tax guy (me) does not do MLP's but I think you own a business so your taxes maybe a pain already.
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Sea Limited
This was up 4-500% last year so it may pull back a lot on anything really. It has a ton of debt and doesn't make money so it's very speculative. Tencent has a large stake in this company
Shopee Ecommerce - Runs mostly in SE Asia but trying in Latin America a bit. It's Amazon-style not Ebay. Logistics, shipping, Ecommerce-as-a-service for other businesses, selling those businesses data, etc. It's probably more social media-ized than what we're used to. It's #1 or 2 in most of the countries. There are some local competitors and then Lazada. Lazada was backed by Alibaba and they finally took controlling interest
Digital Payment/wallet - Ecommerce and digital payments have been my favorite place to put money for years. They have SeaPay, people use it to interact with them but I feel like it's the Kohl's card. They don't break it out in the numbers. Feels like a throw away though the category sounds enticing. Hard part about not regularly using the product.
Gaming - This is their largest revenue source. Garena is a gaming platform like Steam, I guess, but more social media elements and eSports. They create some games and publish some as well. Free Fire has been a big hit in parts of the world. This is where the Tencent link really pays off. Tencent is the largest game publisher in the world. Sea has an exclusive deal to host their games on the Garena platform.
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Originally Posted by Rain Man:
I'm reading this post like a New Guinea villager reading a smartphone manual.
There isn't a ton of high level shit in there, just farm dork stuff.
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
Yeah, yesterday was something in the grains huh?
Unfortunately I'm sold out of 2020 production, and have some hedges on for 21, so all I get is on call :-)
I grow corn. So as long as I don't have production problems, I'm inherently long corn. I hedge it on the futures market (CME). So corn has been on a tear. I sold all the corn I grew in 2020 before the latest leg of the rally, so I don't get to make money off the latest rally.
I do have some hedges on for 2021 production, meaning I have short contracts on the board. Bought with leverage, so when the 2021 futures market goes up past the value of my account, I'm on call. I get a call from my broker saying I have to ACH money by the end of day or I don't get to play. Being on call blows.
My unhedged expected production (provided I grow it) is increasing in price, so net positive (in my case). But being on call BLOWS.
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
I can't grow beans, which is driving the boat, but in the corn, I was really thinking the move was over. It rallied hard, then stopped and had a couple lower lows, and I chickened out. Plus it had closed some of the negative carry. I don't have any on farm storage, and at $.045/bu/month, it doesn't take long to eat a rally up. So I suck.
The fundamentals on beans are tight, which is driving the soybean market higher, corn is following because at some point corn has to be high enough to get acres (where it matters). If beans are making money and corn isn't, farmers will plant beans instead (where it matters)
If you look at a quote chart, the difference between the front month (In the case of corn, March) and the delivery month (In the case of corn, December) is the carry. When I sell corn out of the field it will be on the December contract. Typically the delivery month is higher. That indicates a positive carry. Currently the carry is negative, meaning march is higher than December....in this case by a huge margin. Broad strokes that means the end users are really bidding it up because they need it now.
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
I guess the good and bad (good for my hedge account, bad for my production) is that the Dec is lagging pretty hard. I mean it's rallying, but nothing like the front months have done. There is now a $.73 negative carry. That is just damned insane.
December isn't going up as fast as March (widening the carry) so my margin calls aren't as big, but my unhedged expected production isn't appreciating in price as much, so net negative.
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
Oh wow, I just looked at the negative carry on beans. I'll shut up now....:-)
Beans have a ginormous negative carry. It's nutty.
Watch your email. I owe you one on real estate.
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