Originally Posted by eastsidedawg:
I think he has a better chance than the chiefs this year.... you ready for that superbowl hangover?
It would be against all odds to make 3 superbowls in a row let alone making it back after losing one... that's a double buzzkill for KC.
If we're going to determine odds based on history, you should probably just resign yourself to the fact that the Browns will never win anything. [Reply]
NFL execs rank AFC teams 1-16: Chiefs on top, Browns rise, Steelers fading
Originally Posted by :
It’s been a big offseason in the AFC.
The Kansas City Chiefs remade their offensive line. The Buffalo Bills signed quarterback Josh Allen to a $258 million extension. The Indianapolis Colts acquired Carson Wentz. The Tennessee Titans added Julio Jones. The New England Patriots drafted Mac Jones and made him their starting quarterback. The Jacksonville Jaguars drafted Trevor Lawrence first, the New York Jets selected Zach Wilson second, and the Houston Texans seemingly put themselves in position to select a quarterback first overall in 2022, depending upon what happens with Deshaun Watson.
To make sense of it all, I’ve enlisted five NFL front-office executives and had them rank all 16 teams in the conference heading into the 2021 season. I’ve stacked the teams below by average vote and then median vote, from the Chiefs at the top to the Texans at the bottom. And then the voters were given an opportunity to weigh in on their thinking. We’ll stack NFC teams Friday.
The first table below shows the 1-16 ranking. Average votes were used to break ties when median votes were the same.
1. Kansas City Chiefs(AFC West Champions)
Votes: 1-1-1-1-1 | Avg: 1.0 | Median: 1
The Chiefs lost the most recent Super Bowl and trailed in the previous one by 14 points in the fourth quarter mostly because their offensive line struggled against strong pass-rush teams. They’ll have five starters new from last season, including veterans Orlando Brown Jr. and Joe Thuney.
“Their line should be good, and if you have a good line, a great quarterback and the type of speed Kansas City has with Tyreek (Hill) and (Travis) Kelce, you’re going to score a ton of points,” one of the voters said.
One voter laughed at Patrick Mahomes’ stated offseason emphasis on remaining more patient in the pocket and stepping up to go through his reads.
“How did it look against Minnesota (in preseason)?” this voter asked. “Mahomes runs around the rush and side-arms a 28-yard gain. Then he’s got an RPO, outside the pocket, two pumps, first down. Then he’s got a completely free blitzer, he freezes him with a side-arm pump, hits the second option. They get in the tight red (zone), it’s sprint pass, he throws back to (Travis) Kelce, his fourth option, 12 inches off the ground and the guys falls in the end zone. There’s one other quarterback that can make that play.”
Mahomes being Mahomes works, too.
“Mahomes working on his pocket patience is asking Eddie Van Halen to slow his tempo in his guitar solos, maybe play some opera,” this voter added.
2. Buffalo Bills(AFC East Champions)
Votes: 2-3-2-2-2 | Avg: 2.2 | Median: 2
Setting aside Houston and Deshaun Watson, the Chiefs are the only AFC team with a quarterback who earned Tier 1 status from 50 coaches and evaluators this summer. The Bills’ Josh Allen was the next AFC quarterback in the rankings, atop Tier 2, which helped Buffalo rank second here.
“I’ll be shocked if Josh Allen doesn’t do it again,” a voter said. “He still has the best receiver in the NFL, a good defense, great head coach, same offensive coordinator. There is no reason they should not do it again. The line has settled down. Just the maturity.”
The Bills are back. Are they better?
“Buffalo meets expectations just enough across the board where you feel good about them, but there is no defining feature about them,” one voter said. “When you look at their division, New England is going to be better. There will be more balance in that division, which will make it tougher for Buffalo.”
3. Baltimore Ravens(AFC North Champions)
Votes: 3-4-3-7-3 | Avg: 4.0 | Median: 3
One voter anticipating a monster season from Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins knocked down Baltimore from second to fourth after Dobbins’ season-ending injury.
“The sky is falling because the back got hurt?” another voter said. “Dobbins was their No. 2 running back behind the quarterback anyway. All their offensive ills are cured by their strong culture of defense.”
A different voter thought the Ravens’ pass-rush would slip without Matthew Judon. Another thought newcomers Justin Houston and Odafe Oweh would provide sufficient rush for cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters to excel.
“The last time Baltimore had a bad defense, it was the Colts,” another voter said.
One voter raised concerns about the drop from starting quarterbacks to backups among AFC contenders whose starters remain unvaccinated. Baltimore, Buffalo and Indianapolis make that list.
“It’s a huge drop from (Lamar) Jackson to (Tyler) Huntley,” this voter said.
4. Cleveland Browns(AFC Wildcard)
Votes: 4-5-8-9-4 | Avg: 6.0 | Median: 5
No voters placed the Browns among the AFC’s top three. Two placed them outside the top seven.
“I feel like the AFC is much better than the NFC and more likely to be muddied up,” said the voter who had the Browns eighth. “I don’t think teams will take them as lightly this year.”
The Browns finished 11-5 last season and seem to have gotten better from a personnel standpoint, although their bets on defensive front-seven pieces Jadeveon Clowney and Takk McKinley are speculative.
“If you look across the board, they have a loaded roster,” another voter said. “If Baker (Mayfield) can put it together, then great. If he is better than we think and he turns out to be a top-10 quarterback, then they are going to be playing Kansas City in the championship game.”
The Browns could be candidates for regression after going 4-0 last season in games decided by three or fewer points (the Chiefs were 5-0 in those games, but their credentials are also more established).
“I don’t go all-in when I see first-year success for a quarterback or head coach,” one voter said. “There can be a shock value where it is the unexpected. That is how I see the Browns.”
5. Indianapolis Colts(AFC South Champions)
Votes: 6-7-6-5-5 | Avg: 5.8 | Median: 6
Two spots separate the highest and lowest votes for the Colts. Only the Chiefs, Bills and Texans have tighter voting ranges among AFC teams. That’s notable when considering how well and poorly quarterback Carson Wentz has produced in recent seasons.
“Indy’s floor and ceiling, their disparity is huge because they could be right there with Kansas City if Wentz reverts to that 2017 form, or they could be one of the worst teams in the league if Wentz is terrible,” a voter said.
Voters think Wentz has a better shot at succeeding in Indianapolis than elsewhere.
“They are going to be run-game oriented, and that is why Carson can be better,” a voter said. “He can be a guy they win with, not because of, same as it was for him in Philly in 2017. He can still make some of those ‘wow’ plays. If they overtake Tennessee in a weak division, yeah, they can be top four or five in the AFC, but they have a young roster that I don’t think is talented enough to be locked into the top three spots in the conference.”
6. Los Angeles Chargers(AFC Wildcard)
Votes: 10-6-11-4-6 | Avg: 7.4 | Median: 6
The Chargers found a promising successor to Philip Rivers. Have they solved the problems that prevented them from contending through much of Rivers’ career and also during Justin Herbert’s rookie season? Game management will almost surely improve. Could it get worse?
“That remains to be seen,” a voter said. “Their head coach and (three) coordinators have a combined three seasons of coordinating experience. Wade Phillips had more in like 1985, so the game-management stuff is not a lock.”
Another voter thought Herbert, a healthier roster and new ideas on the coaching staff could help the Chargers finish closer than expected to Kansas City in the AFC West.
“They are the same as San Francisco to me,” a voter said. “It is the caveat of, it’s a good team if they can stay healthy.”
The 49ers ranked first last season and the Chargers fourth in Weighted Approximate Value Lost to injuries, according to the injury tracking site Man-Games Lost. Those calculations use Pro Football Reference’s AV metric, weighted to reflect career quality of injured players. Derwin James, Mike Pouncey and Melvin Ingram were the Chargers’ most valuable players lost to injury in 2020. Of those three, only James remains.
The Chargers were also 32nd in expected points added (EPA) on special teams, according to TruMedia.
“They have some players, and when you look at some of the games they lost last year in terms of the game management, the special teams, if they are even average in those areas, that’s two or three games right there,” a voter said. “I think they’ll have more volume schematically on defense, which will help.”
7. Tennessee Titans(AFC Wildcard)
Votes: 7-2-5-10-7 | Avg: 6.2 | Median: 7
The Titans were the only team in either conference to get votes as high as second and as low as 10th. Did they upgrade their defense sufficiently? How much will offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s departure affect quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the offense?
“I discounted them because I don’t know about their coaching,” one voter said. “I love (Mike) Vrabel, but without Arthur Smith, that is concerning. If he were there with Tannehill, I’d probably give Tannehill a better mark, but I am not sold.”
The voter who ranked the Titans second in the AFC liked the defensive upgrades with veterans Janoris Jenkins, Bud Dupree and John Simon, plus drafted cornerbacks Caleb Farley and Elijah Molden.
“They have gotten their pass-rush better, and Simon should work in their favor after I thought Harold Landry wore down last season playing too many snaps,” this voter said. “Then I think Jeffery Simmons is one of the best young defensive linemen in the league that no one talks about.”
Tennessee gave up seven touchdown passes while collecting one interception in two games against Houston last season. That likely will not happen with Watson removed from the Texans’ lineup.
“Jonnu Smith is a big loss for them, they lose Arthur Smith, Corey Davis and you wonder at what point does the wear and tear catch up to the running back (Derrick Henry),” a voter who ranked Tennessee seventh said. “Their two big acquisitions defensively, Bud Dupree and the Virginia Tech kid (Farley) have the health questions, as does Julio Jones. This is probably the year where you see a little attrition.”
AFC Playoffs seeds:
1. Chiefs - Bye
2. Bills vs 7. Titans
3. Ravens vs 6. Chargers
4. Colts vs 5. Browns
Originally Posted by eastsidedawg:
I think he has a better chance than the chiefs this year.... you ready for that superbowl hangover?
It would be against all odds to make 3 superbowls in a row let alone making it back after losing one... that's a double buzzkill for KC.
Yeah...those teams didn't have Mahomes behind what is most likely the best OL of his career.
Not sure if you saw game 3...but PM had a perfect passer rating, wasn't touched and scored TDs on both drives.
You give him an extra second...and he's going to destroy teams. He does that anyways...and went 14-1 after Schwartz, Osemele and LDT were out for the season... he essentialy played behind a back-up line all year.
Baker is a very good QB...but that's it...very good. Mahomes is a Jordan-level talent. 50 TDs, 5000 yards, NFL MVP his first starting season.
Chiefs were some bogus Brady 4th quarter calls and a Dee Ford NZ infraction from already going to 3 straight.. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
In the past three seasons Mahomes is something like 44-10.
During the same timeframe Baker is 25-24.
This is where the Browns fans will now complain about Baker’s “lost year” and ignore the fact that half his games last year netted less than 200 yards passing.
yep...I can't understand why people can't see this.... [Reply]
No voters placed the Browns among the AFC’s top three. Two placed them outside the top seven.
“I feel like the AFC is much better than the NFC and more likely to be muddied up,” said the voter who had the Browns eighth. “I don’t think teams will take them as lightly this year.”
The Browns finished 11-5 last season and seem to have gotten better from a personnel standpoint, although their bets on defensive front-seven pieces Jadeveon Clowney and Takk McKinley are speculative.
“If you look across the board, they have a loaded roster,” another voter said. “If Baker (Mayfield) can put it together, then great. If he is better than we think and he turns out to be a top-10 quarterback, then they are going to be playing Kansas City in the championship game.”
The Browns could be candidates for regression after going 4-0 last season in games decided by three or fewer points (the Chiefs were 5-0 in those games, but their credentials are also more established).
“I don’t go all-in when I see first-year success for a quarterback or head coach,” one voter said. “There can be a shock value where it is the unexpected. That is how I see the Browns.”
Teams are going to try to drop 7 and play coverage. Last year, with a bunch of bums on the offensive line, we couldn't make them pay for that.
This year, Clyde will put up huge numbers if they try that shit, and we'll still score at will.
KC will force teams to play both run and pass and there will be no answer. If Cleveland comes out dropping 7, look for Clyde to go for 150 and a couple of TD's. KC rolls 30-17. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
Teams are going to try to drop 7 and play coverage. Last year, with a bunch of bums on the offensive line, we couldn't make them pay for that.
This year, Clyde will put up huge numbers if they try that shit, and we'll still score at will.
KC will force teams to play both run and pass and there will be no answer. If Cleveland comes out dropping 7, look for Clyde to go for 150 and a couple of TD's. KC rolls 30-17.
This all day.....exactly like the first Bills game last year, and that was post Osemele going out, as well as Schwatz playing about 7 plays and them he went out as well. That was truly the first game where our line became "our line" until Fish went out in the AFCCG.
And that line was nowhere close to what our new line looks like....It's going to be fantastic! [Reply]
Originally Posted by KChiefs1:
So Baker & Alex Smith are comparable but Alex Smith is the better QB. Makes sense.
I didn't remotely say anything like that....I personally think that they are the same guy....dink dunk, needs lots of help, and will win a bunch of regular season games
We all know Alex couldn't do squat in the playoffs, and I think that is what Baker is destined for as well.... [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
Teams are going to try to drop 7 and play coverage. Last year, with a bunch of bums on the offensive line, we couldn't make them pay for that.
This year, Clyde will put up huge numbers if they try that shit, and we'll still score at will.
KC will force teams to play both run and pass and there will be no answer. If Cleveland comes out dropping 7, look for Clyde to go for 150 and a couple of TD's. KC rolls 30-17.
This is how I see the game as well. Essentially a repeat of last years opener against the Texans. [Reply]
