Saw this on Reddit. Thought it was a better talking point than trading McDuffie, or trading resources for a LT. Also hoping I can get a better understanding from some of you guys who understand it more than me.
[OC] Assessing how aggressively teams are using future cap space - the Eagles effectively spent 399 million on their 2024 roster, 32% more than the average team and the most in the league
In recent years, teams have become more aggressive in structuring backloaded contracts to take advantage of the fact that the cap increases every year. Howie has taken this further than any GM in the league.
To assess this, I used APY, which is the average yearly cap hit of a contract. For example, if a player has a cap hit of $5 million this year and $25 million next year, their APY is $15 million.
The average team is effectively spending $303 million on their roster, much higher than the current salary cap of $260 million. While this shows most teams are pushing some of their player's cap hits to the future, none are close to the Eagles. There are multiple reasons the Eagle's value is so high
1. Howie has signed many core players to long term, backloaded contracts
1. Howie aggressively uses void years to push money owed later for even short term contracts. For example, CJGJ has a cap hit of 14.5 million for the Eagles in 2027, even though his three year deal ends in 2026
1. Howie already been employing this strategy, meaning the Eagles had $61 million in dead cap in 2024.
You can see other teams like the Niners and Lions leaning into this strategy, giving long extensions to core players that push their cap hits into the future. Notable, the Chiefs have not, meaning they have the option to start spending more aggressively if they adopt this practice.
The most interesting question is if this practice is sustainable. Howie seems to plan to continually kick the can down the road, always paying the current roster with future cap. The advantage of this is clear, having a larger effective salary cap allows you to assemble/keep a talented roster. But there is a downside, it limits flexibility and can make it hard for a team to reset in a down year. Whether the Eagles will run into this problem, and whether adopts this practice across the board remains to be seen. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chargem:
I don't see how it's against parity or competitive balance if all teams have access to it.
Should we ban trading draft picks just in case some teams are too good at valuing picks and end up finding a competitive edge from it?
Some teams have access to more money than others. Baseball has a salary cap and a penalty for teams that violate it. However, there are a number of teams that make so much more in revenue that it doesn't matter.
Being better at evaluating players and making deals isn't really bypassing anything so I don't really see your argument as comparable. It's not our fault that Buffalo let the Chiefs grab Mahomes and Worthy. The Bills got fair compensation for the trade.
It seems the kicking the can down the road is worthwhile unless your team really screws things up and then, like what happened with too big to fail, the people making the rules simply change them. Not turning it into a political discussion, just noting how people with money always seem to escape accountability. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Coach:
I don't know if this would fit, so correct me if I am wrong. I am just throwing this one out as an example from my perspective.
When Tyreek was about up to get paid in 2022, the Chiefs had a dilemma to either:
A) Make Tyreek the most expensive WR in the league (due to his speed) on a 4 year / $120 million. Not going to go all technical/specifics/backloading/frontloading, etc., we will just use the "average" of $30 million a year. That takes up a big chunk of the cap one way or another, especially if you need to consider Pat Mahomes contract and Chris Jones will need to get paid eventually (which Jones did in 2023 "renegotiation" and a new deal in 2024).
or
B) Trade the player while his value is still high to get similar or better value in return. The old saying is that it is better to trade an asset while its value is high, even if it stays high in the following year or two, because eventually, it will depreciate.
The Chiefs went option B, traded Hill to Miami who he signed a 4 year / $120 million. The Chiefs received a first-round pick, a second-round pick, two fourth-round picks, and a sixth-round pick. The Chiefs used this no. 29 pick and Miami's 2022 4th-round pick to trade up for cornerback Trent McDuffie, which was a hit.
The bad of course was the Chiefs traded the Dolphins' second-round pick to the Patriots, receiving picks No. 54 and No. 158. They used pick No. 54 to draft WR Skyy Moore and used No. 158 to trade up in the fifth round for OT Darian Kinnard. Unfortunately, this didn't pan out, especially on Moore's case.
But the wild-card here is when the Chiefs traded Miami's 2023 fourth-round pick as part of a package to move up from No. 63 to No. 55 to select WR Rashee Rice. Rice does show flashes of greatness, but the injury and off-field issue remains to be seen.
Finally, that 6th round pack was traded to Dallas for the 5th pick in 2024, which was a lineman Hunter Nourzad, OL, Penn State.
Looking back, should we have paid Tyreek? Basically comes down to Tyreek in his prime vs McDuffie and Rice. Both are very good, Rice has and will miss significant time. Hmmmm? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Couch-Potato:
Looking back, should we have paid Tyreek? Basically comes down to Tyreek in his prime vs McDuffie and Rice. Both are very good, Rice has and will miss significant time. Hmmmm?
No, teams adjusted to the Chiefs offense and Tyreek was expendable. [Reply]
Originally Posted by crayzkirk:
No, teams adjusted to the Chiefs offense and Tyreek was expendable.
The NFL is a copycat league. I anticipate the opponents the Chiefs play in 2025 may consider copying whatever scheme / talent the Eagles did to use against them in 2025.
The other side is also true where the Chiefs will need to seriously upgrade their O-Line, specifically the tackles. This run on "bargain bin" tackles isn't sustainable, so they're going to have to figure this out, and fast. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Coach:
The NFL is a copycat league. I anticipate the opponents the Chiefs play in 2025 may consider copying whatever scheme / talent the Eagles did to use against them in 2025.
The other side is also true where the Chiefs will need to seriously upgrade their O-Line, specifically the tackles. This run on "bargain bin" tackles isn't sustainable, so they're going to have to figure this out, and fast.
The Eagles are about the only team with the talent to do it and I believe that Patrick was concussed early in the game. He played like the second half of the Cincinatti AFCCG where he was making uncharacteristic mistakes and missing plays. He took a big whiplash hit on that early scramble. [Reply]
So maybe at any given time the NFL will have 3 to 5 QBs that might really carry their teams and then another half dozen that could certainly win a SB if the rest of the team was elite.
So comparing KC to whichever team happened to do the greatest job drafting and saying why can't KC draft like that? While ignoring all the teams that didn't draft like that...
It's equivalent to all the teams that keep asking, team X has an elite QB (elite LT), why don't we? [Reply]
Imagine the Chiefs still paying Frank Clark dead money this year bc of void years?
Imagine paying Jawaan Taylor dead money in 2027 when he’s been off the team bc we utilized void years?
Imagine paying Justin Reid dead money in 2025 and 2026 when he’s off the team?
This board would melt down if we did that. It’s infinitely better to simply pay them higher cap hits so that you can get them off the books clean/minimal damage rather than paying guys to not play for you.
Anyone who thinks dead money doesn’t matter look at the Broncos. Richest owners in the league by far and they couldn’t spend on FA’s this year bc of Russell Wilson’s enormous dead money. [Reply]
I just posted on this in the draft forum the other day so I won't dive balls-deep into it here but the reality is exactly what's been expressed already, "the bill does come due."
Void years work when you want to buy a guy now and pay for it later but you will. The thing about voids is that while they spread over a contract length of up to 5 years, they do accelerate onto the cap in the year the void activates. So you can buy a guy for $20m on a 1-year deal with 4 void years. That spreads the hit evenly over 5 years so that you pay $4m now, but you are paying $16m next year when the voids accelerate. This is the same premise as a June 1 cut. The only way to avoid accelerating the voids is to actually re-sign that player.
Accelerated voids will cost the Eagles about $30.7m this offseason. Added to the $29m they already owe from other contracts like Kelce, they'll have $60m tied up in dead money to nobody this offseason. This is not perpetually sustainable unless the cap keeps growing at a near-equivalent amount.
The Saints are the bar for playing this game for too long without paying the Piper. They are paying said Piper now. They are sitting $54m over the cap with a shit roster and 35/36-year-old players they can't really cut. They can do some June 1 cuts and kick some more down the road but they are still a year or two away from righting that ship. It's a mess that is nearly impossible to get out of once you're balls-deep in it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Couch-Potato:
Looking back, should we have paid Tyreek? Basically comes down to Tyreek in his prime vs McDuffie and Rice. Both are very good, Rice has and will miss significant time. Hmmmm?
The post you quoted is also not counting the cash that was freed up by trading Tyreek. Not only did you get young great talent like Rice and McDuffie, but you also had 30m APY to spend on other players (minus the rookie deal costs of the young players).
It's a slam dunk that trading him was the right move. [Reply]
I have not been able to read the entire thread so my apologies if this has been asked.
As for the Chiefs using back loaded contracts, you have to have the right type of players to do it. Right? We kinda do it with Mahomes. Which makes me wonder if Veach gets creative with guys like McDuffie, George, and some future FAs at expensive positions. [Reply]