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Whether Travis Kelce decides to play in 2025, the Kansas City Chiefs must come to the same conclusion: They have to move onto their next phase.
No, they don’t have to release Kelce, although doing so would save $17.2 million in cap space. Kelce, 35, is too valuable and too important in the locker room to make such a choice, even with those savings.
However, the Chiefs must understand that to move forward, to attempt to reach a fourth consecutive Super Bowl (and sixth in seven years), the offense has to change. It has to go through receivers Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice, with Kelce being nothing more than a component.
Over the past two seasons, Kansas City has enjoyed immense success. The Chiefs have reached both Super Bowls and won one, to say nothing about winning it all in 2022 as well. All of this came after the team traded All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, but the metamorphosis from explosive to egregiously slow didn’t happen right away.
In fact, the slowdown began in 2021. After ranking sixth, 10th and 13th, respectively, from ’18 to ’20 in average depth of target (ADOT), Patrick Mahomes checked in at 24th in Hill’s last campaign with the club as opponents began to play more shell coverages.
In 2022, the first year without Hill, Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards and earned MVP honors. However, his ADOT was still 23rd in the league. The following year, it took a nosedive to 30th as Kansas City relied heavily on poor wideouts, including Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney.
This past season? Mahomes failed to throw for 4,000 yards for the first time in his career while ranking 41st in ADOT, only ahead of Gardner Minshew II and Tua Tagovailoa. Part of the reason was losing Rice and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown early on to injuries, but another problem was the overreliance on Kelce.
Over the past two years, Kelce has been targeted 254 times. Rice is second on the team over that span with 131 targets despite playing just four games this season. Nobody else cracked 100. Despite that, Kelce hasn’t made either All-Pro team or gained 1,000 receiving yards after seven straight seasons of doing both before 2023.
Of course, the dependence on Kelce is also due to a factor that should keep general manager Brett Veach awake at night … the issues at left and right tackle.
And for Veach, that’s where the offseason focus must be.
For Mahomes to get back to his fire-breathing ways, the Chiefs have to fix their issues at left tackle. While Jawaan Taylor is financially locked in for one more year (before Kansas City almost certainly releases him to save $20 million prior to 2026), the other side has options.
The Chiefs, who have approximately $11.5 million in cap space, can open up another $50 million to $60 million with an extension for All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, a restructure of Mahomes’s mega-deal and adding a void year to Kelce’s pact. With that money, Veach could re-sign Pro Bowl right guard Trey Smith and then shop for a left tackle in free agency as Alaric Jackson, Ronnie Stanley and Cam Robinson are all available.
Veach could also go another direction. He could use the third-round pick acquired from the Tennessee Titans in the L’Jarius Sneed trade last offseason (No. 66) to move up in the first round for an answer on the blindside. By saving tens of millions by drafting a left tackle instead of signing one, perhaps Veach could get in the receiver business.
With Worthy and Rice on cheaper rookie deals for a few more years, would Veach entertain trying to add another big name on the outside? There are a host of free-agent receivers worth discussing at One Arrowhead Drive, ranging from Tee Higgins and Chris Godwin to Stefon Diggs.
For Kansas City, the offensive ethos must change. For years, the Chiefs struck fear into defenses. Mahomes could go over the top at any moment. Most importantly, every throw was on the board. Now, the Chiefs are throwing shorter than any team in football, and the result was the 17th-ranked scoring offense and a unit that led the league in plays per drive.
Efficiency is good. Explosiveness is better.
And that doesn’t only go for the receivers. If the line is improved, the running backs should also be overhauled. While Isiah Pacheco is a quality player, he’s also missed 13 games over the past two years and is hitting free agency in 2026. Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine are both free agents now.
For Veach, the draft class presents a cornucopia of options in the backfield, with running back being one of the strongest positions of this rookie crop. Kansas City would be wise to take someone on Day 2, giving the Chiefs speed in a way they haven’t enjoyed at tailback since the days of Jamaal Charles.
Ultimately, Kansas City needs to get faster across the board, and it needs to rediscover the ability to play aggressively. For years, the Chiefs and Mahomes have eschewed the intermediate and deep routes for smaller, surer gains. It’s hard to argue with most of the results, but Super Bowl LIX also showed that without a better line and some weapons to back defenses off, disaster is always looming against a quality opponent.
Kelce might play in 2025. His decision hasn’t been made. Fair enough.
But if the Chiefs want to taste glory once more and keep their dynasty rolling, Kelce’s choice pales in comparison to the other tasks at hand.
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
2022 he had better OL, better Kelce. We also had schematic advantage.
Teams had screwed with Mahomes/Reid by taking away our vertical game we relied on in 2021.
Reid came back in 2022 with a vengeance. Problem was there was no counter-punch after teams realized we were happy to dink and dunk.
Yeah, but we now have a deep WR in Worthy and a physical possession WR in Rice. That's a good start to diversify the offensive attack.
However, there's question marks going forward at TE, RB, and LT. Maybe a better RB and LT softens the blow felt after Kelce's eventual retirement. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Gary Cooper:
Yeah, but we now have a deep WR in Worthy and a physical possession WR in Rice. That's a good start to diversify the offensive attack.
However, there's question marks going forward at TE, RB, and LT. Maybe a better RB and LT softens the blow felt after Kelce's eventual retirement.
I am confident they will find a young explosive RB. This draft is stacked with RB talent.
It's the left tackle and offensive coaching that worries me. [Reply]
Originally Posted by FloridaMan88:
Yeah, if it’s a “daily terror” to have the privilege of coaching a QB like Mahomes… then time to find a new line of work.
It's the offensive mentality now.
Play not to lose, manage the game for the defense.
I would prefer to attack and win with Mahomes but that's just me. [Reply]
Getting back to an explosive offense might require more than one offseason of retooling. Mahomes had to go to short efficiency b/c his tackles couldn't hold up. In 2024, he wouldn't have time for "WASP," which took a ton of time to develop. He doesn't have Schwartz and Fisher as bookends.
I think Worthy showed he does threaten defenses deep, but the line didn't let Mahomes fully exploit that ability. Thus, they used him underneath. i think the move is to restructure contracts to get an LT. THe problem becomes: is any of the available solutions someone who can solidify the blindside long-term?
If not, we can't solve the problem until that guy becomes available. Perhaps that's not a problem we can solve this offseason, which means we won't win a SB.
If that solution isn't available, we need to focus on the problems we can fix. Perhaps running back, another corner with elite upside, a run stuffing DT, perhaps linebacker to replace Bolton, or another TE candidate if Wiley isn't the guy.
Just because we want to win next season doesn't mean that the pieces are there to obtain. [Reply]
Getting back to an explosive offense might require more than one offseason of retooling. Mahomes had to go to short efficiency b/c his tackles couldn't hold up. In 2024, he wouldn't have time for "WASP," which took a ton of time to develop. He doesn't have Schwartz and Fisher as bookends.
I think Worthy showed he does threaten defenses deep, but the line didn't let Mahomes fully exploit that ability. Thus, they used him underneath. i think the move is to restructure contracts to get an LT. THe problem becomes: is any of the available solutions someone who can solidify the blindside long-term?
If not, we can't solve the problem until that guy becomes available. Perhaps that's not a problem we can solve this offseason, which means we won't win a SB.
If that solution isn't available, we need to focus on the problems we can fix. Perhaps running back, another corner with elite upside, a run stuffing DT, perhaps linebacker to replace Bolton, or another TE candidate if Wiley isn't the guy.
Just because we want to win next season doesn't mean that the pieces are there to obtain.
I really hope they use the resources necessary to get Mahomes going again. 3 years with Mahomes in his prime not being in the MVP conversation is mismanagement of the offense. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Like I said in the draft forum -- if there's a TE and a WR of similar pedigree/potential on the board, I'm taking the WR.
The comparison I made was Colston Loveland vs. Emeka Egbuka. Presuming for the sake of argument that you find both guys to be similarly 'graded' prospects, if I had my choice of either, I'm taking the WR.
Reid's entire career he has shown the ability to get yardage out of his TE. If Kelce walks, we'll still get 800+ yards out of the TE position as a whole.
In the meantime, I'd like to see us move more towards a WR oriented offense with a RB that's more capable of breaking longer runs and/or doing more damage in the screen/passing game.
I agree completely with the thesis of the article. Ultimately we've gotten the job done with plodding weapons and minimizing mistakes, but we're underutilizing our most valuable (and expensive) asset in so doing.
If Loveland and Egbuka are the options, I might take the 3rd option: Treveyon Henderson.
If I have learned anything this year, it’s that damn good RB is key to this era of football. Josh Allen had shit at WR and James Cook helped that offense immensely. Saquon changed everything about the Eagles offense.
Spags had no choice but to run single high A LOT in the SB bc of his respect for their running game and it opened up the 1v1 matchup on their first TD. Conversely, Fangio played cover 2 and cover 4 among the highest %.
Aside from LT, RB might be the most beneficial addition you can give Patrick. A RB that can go 50 yards on any carry is gonna make teams pay for playing cover 2 so much. A RB that can make a defender miss in the open field and get 15 is gonna make teams pay for playing cover 2.
They’ve already got Rashee and Worthy. Would also imagine Hollywood comes back too. If they get a vet LT like I think they will, RB might be the biggest option to help Patrick [Reply]
Originally Posted by RunKC:
If if Loveland and Egbuka are the options, I might take the 3rd option: Treveyon Henderson.
If I have learned anything this year, it’s that damn good RB is key to this era of football. Josh Allen had shit at WR and James Cook helped that offense immensely. Saquon changed everything about the Eagles offense.
Spags had no choice but to run single high A LOT in the SB bc of his respect for their running game and it opened up the 1v1 matchup on their first TD. Conversely, Fangio played cover 2 and cover 4 among the highest %.
Aside from LT, RB might be the most beneficial addition you can give Patrick. A RB that can go 50 yards on any carry is gonna make teams pay for playing cover 2 so much. A RB that can make a defender miss in the open field and get 15 is gonna make teams pay for playing cover 2.
They’ve already got Rashee and Worthy. Would also imagine Hollywood comes back too. If they get a vet LT like I think they will, RB might be the biggest option to help Patrick
Anyone in the draft that plays a bit like Alvin Kamara?
Explosive offense isn't just the deep ball, although they need to be better at it. It can also be medium length plays that guys can bust open.
Don't kid yourself the second this offense gets back to being explosive teams are going to sell the house to take it away. There was a time there where teams would have let us run for 250 over giving up a deep ball. [Reply]
