Anyone who’s watched him over the years has to anticipate him much more likely to play than not at this stage. But at a certain point, especially considering the chaotic left tackle situation, shrewdness is the better part of valor rather than having Mahomes play while compromised Saturday.

It’s one thing for him to be able to function even if slowed a bit.

It’s another to put himself in “harm’s way,” as he put it, or even be affected enough to “limit the game plan.”

So there’s something of a dilemma attached to this:

It’s hard to imagine that the health of the ankle won’t benefit more overall by Mahomes sitting out this shortened week … and maybe even at Pittsburgh four days later. And it’s equally hard to imagine that the health of the Chiefs’ ambitions to make history won’t suffer if he sits out.

The mere fact that Mahomes acknowledged concerns is a great start on coming to the right solution.

But it’s going to be imperative that Reid and Mahomes be absolutely candid with each other as decision time approaches.

On Tuesday in their first media briefings since the game on Sunday, Reid said he can count on Mahomes to be honest with him about whether he’s right enough to play. After all, he said with a smile, the decision won’t be made “during the game, (when Mahomes’) juices are going.”

The key to that equation is whether the rugged superstar can be honest with himself if he’s medically cleared.

When I asked him about that notion, Mahomes pointed out the Chiefs’ stature (13-1 with a two-game lead over the 11-3 Bills, who own the tiebreaker) and said “I wouldn’t say it was dire that I played.”

It’s not like this is the AFC Championship Game, he added, with the Super Bowl on the line.

At least not explicitly.

But with the Bills now looking like a juggernaut, clinching the top seed seems much more like a necessity than a luxury, doesn’t it?

So the next two games, and potentially the finale at Denver, effectively are part of the playoff scheme if not exactly playoff games in their own right.

And even if Mahomes made a point of saying this game isn’t dire, he is ultra-aware of the benefits of winning the next two — including the prospect of getting more than three weeks off since he wouldn’t play at Denver if the Chiefs beat Houston and Pittsburgh.

“Just as important as it is to get healthy,” he said, “it is to get that number one seed.”

So Mahomes, who could be seen grimacing early in the practice Tuesday in which he was listed as a full participant, will have every incentive to play Saturday.

And assuming medical approval that he’s physically able to go, barring setbacks along the way and embracing precedent, there’s ample reason to reckon that’s just what will happen.

Certainly, that belief is reflected by oddsmakers.

The Chiefs went from 4 1/2-point favorite to a narrow underdog when Mahomes’ injury became known, but were restored to three-point favorites by Tuesday afternoon.

Just the same, there’s much that Reid and Mahomes must consider in both the short and long term as game day closes in.

“You don’t want him so limited,” Reid said, “he can’t get out of the way of things.”

While Reid didn’t say this part, it hovered in the air:

That’s particularly true given that Mahomes has had a hard time getting out of the way of things all season because of the left tackle flux.

So this is all a lot to process than might seem obvious.

Both in terms of the personal aspect of Mahomes’ overall health and the best practices to further the quest to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls.

For what it’s worth at this stage, Mahomes said this ankle injury isn’t as severe as the one that left him being helped off the field at the end of the first half against Jacksonville in the 2022 postseason and returning for the second half — and the rest of the postseason that culminated with beating the Eagles in the Super Bowl.

That one, he said, “was pretty significant” vs. whatever we are supposed to think of this one.

Which “didn’t feel good by any means,” he added, but has “responded better, quicker.”

Starting with therapy on the plane back from Cleveland and for about 12 hours on Monday, all signs point to Mahomes having a fine chance to play Saturday.

No matter what Las Vegas or any of us think, though, only he’ll know whether he should just because he could.

“I want to be able to move; I want to be able to get out of the way …” he said. “So it’s about me finding that balance and seeing where I’m at.”

Here’s hoping he feels truly right and good to go, because, well, who wants Mahomes ever to miss a game?

Most of all, though, here’s hoping he has the discretion to know the difference — and the restraint to accept the reality if he’s going to make himself vulnerable.

(from the red star)