Originally Posted by MahiMike:
I disagree. Regulation is needed before it can be traded on real exchanges. Once this happens, derivatives, mutual funds and ETF'S are right behind. Before you know it, your gramma is buying it and your 401k owns some too.
The price will skyrocket.
No matter what it's not going away the cat is out of the crypto bag. [Reply]
Originally Posted by MahiMike:
I disagree. Regulation is needed before it can be traded on real exchanges. Once this happens, derivatives, mutual funds and ETF'S are right behind. Before you know it, your gramma is buying it and your 401k owns some too.
The price will skyrocket.
Yeah the right regulation would be fantastic. The wrong regulation could be horrible, though. This is possible Cryptocurrency Fairness in Taxation Act (CFTA) is interesting
Originally Posted by MahiMike:
I disagree. Regulation is needed before it can be traded on real exchanges. Once this happens, derivatives, mutual funds and ETF'S are right behind. Before you know it, your gramma is buying it and your 401k owns some too.
The price will skyrocket.
The thing that freaks me out about bitcoin is that there is only about 300,000 people who hold $5,000 or more of bitcoin. That is an incredibly small market. At the current market cap of ~$58.7B, that is an average holding of just under $200K/bitcoin holder.
Another way of looking at it is that each bitcoin holder is trading an average of just 1.5 bitcoins each day (based on daily volume)--and that is creating both some pretty wild swings and rather remarkable "valuations."
To put in perspective, Bitcoin has a higher market cap than either GM or Ford, yet it really doesn't have any "direct" employees and it really doesn't "produce" anything.
How can you justify the current valuation of bitcoin when it has a higher market cap than even some oil companies like Occidental Petroleum or Phillips 66?
Based on current market cap it is the 88th most valuable "company" in the S&P 500. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Demonpenz:
I don't buy that fud in the new york times, people are salty because now people found out about the band you were listening to before it is cool.
Of course they're salty. Doesn't mean they're not right.
A buddy of mine worked for Amazon in customer service in 1997 or so. He got fired for a couple of bone-headed screwups - mainly making fun of a woman in internal emails for expecting free shipping to Japan and complaining when she couldn't get it. The cult is strong.
Anyway turns out a year or so later he'd have been worth $1 million on paper, just for answering the phones saying "Hi thank you for calling Amazon, how can I help you." He would only be able to sell 1/4 of his stock per year, and most of those were after the crash, so ultimately he'd have been able to cash out for $400k or so. Funniest part was his girlfriend at the time stayed on, dumped him, cashed out and bought a nice condo on Capitol Hill.
So yeah, he was bitter. He became one of the biggest dotcom bears on The Motley Fool in the late 90s (Rimpinths). He was fucking hilarious. It was easy for someone not emotionally invested like to me see that his and the other bears' arguments were grounded in numbers and reason. While the starry eyed believers arguments always amount to "yeah but my stock is going up, so your point is invalid."
Two of my other friends were investing in shit like AOL and JDSU and sending us these cheesy articles about how old methods of valuing stock (P/E) don't matter in the internet age, and basically saying we could all IPO ourselves someday. Sounds a lot like some of the crazy stuff coming out now - like how blockchain, the ultimate design by committee - is gonna somehow make better decisions than a smart human leader with a solid vision. Imagine the Chiefs run by blockchain. They'd have released Alex Smith after the self-sack vs. NE, then fired Reid before halftime.
Anyway, turns out my dotcom bear friend was dead right on everything. Even Amazon which eventualy recovered but only because it hit a grand slam home run on everything it was trying to do. You could have always sold AMZN at the height of the bubble and bought back in later and saved a ton. Almost every other internet darling never recovered. The Nasdaq took what 17 years to recover? After the '29 crash the S&P took 25 years to recover.
But because of my friend, and reading about past historical bubbles and how they end, I KNEW when the NASDAQ dropped 1000 points for no reason in April 2000, that that was it. Bubbles almost always end on some insignificant thing that causes a panic - because ultimately the music has stopped.
I planned my career in computer programming (at the time) around that, and it worked out well. I got a job at a startup while they still had their funding. Then got a job at a giant healthcare company and weathered the storm of 2001-2002
I also knew when the shit hit the fan with Meredith Whitney's downgrade of Citibank - to get out of the market. And actually I had pulled my 401k out before that because I knew housing was in some kind of bubble and things would get bad. Although obviously I did not know that derivatives and MBSes were driving it. I just knew something was out of whack.
And I see all the same signs here. I also got really lucky and got back into the market almost at the bottom, which is documented here. But then I got stupid and frittered a lot of my gains away with ETFs. Biggest lesson learned there - don't try to time the market and I probably don't know anything - except maybe I can spot a bubble.
Although - I will grant you that none of the crypto people so far have resorted to "well yeah but my BTC keeps going up to ppppptttthhh!". So again, we may not be anywhere near peak bubble. Which was my point earlier - early dotcom bears thought that was at peak bubble, then it went up 10x when my uncles put a big chunk of their life savings into Munder Net Net. Actually a really good sign of a bubble close to popping is when the bears capitulate. So if Mr. Doge Coin ever writes an article that he was wrong - might be a good time to take some a cash breather for a bit.
I guess the only thing I'd bet my entire net worth on is that at some point the crypto bubble is going to crash, and it's going to be bad. But that could take 5 years and it could 10x (or more?) from here. Tulipmania lasted generations. But you have to figure things moved slower back then. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Fat Elvis:
The thing that freaks me out about bitcoin is that there is only about 300,000 people who hold $5,000 or more of bitcoin. That is an incredibly small market. At the current market cap of ~$58.7B, that is an average holding of just under $200K/bitcoin holder.
Another way of looking at it is that each bitcoin holder is trading an average of just 1.5 bitcoins each day (based on daily volume)--and that is creating both some pretty wild swings and rather remarkable "valuations."
To put in perspective, Bitcoin has a higher market cap than either GM or Ford, yet it really doesn't have any "direct" employees and it really doesn't "produce" anything.
How can you justify the current valuation of bitcoin when it has a higher market cap than even some oil companies like Occidental Petroleum or Phillips 66?
Based on current market cap it is the 88th most valuable "company" in the S&P 500.
The thing that freaks me out about bitcoin is that there is only about 300,000 people who hold $5,000 or more of bitcoin.
Is this really true? That is really surprising that it is that low. If you were in the top 300,000 ppl who held USD you would be super elite rich...and bitcpin obv encompasses the world. [Reply]
Great read above about the computer science breakthrough that Bitcoin provided: Triple Entry Accounting
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That is probably the least impressive defense of Bitcoin's value I have read so far. First of all, the author conflates Bitcoin's value with the utility of blockchains; I don't think anyone doesn't think that blockchain is the future, but Bitcoin isn't the sum total of blockchain technology. Most blockchain applications and utility haven't even been discovered yet--we've barely scratched the surface. That, in and of itself, should give anyone pause about how Bitcoin is valued. In this sense, Bitcoin should probably be valued like AOL or Netscape; early adopters will make a lot of money from pioneering technology--but ultimately, better tech as the sector matures, it may very well wind up as a passage in the annals of history books rather than a valuable asset class.
Secondly, the author tries to justify Bitcoin's valuation by claiming that *nothing* has any intrisnic value so it is OK that we say that Bitcoin is valued at what it is:
Originally Posted by :
Nothing has any inherent value except the value we put in it.
Fine. But that doesn't mean that Bitcoin is going to always go up--even in the long term. He tries to justify this position by pointing out the value of the value of the Dow in 1929 vs today; this actually reinforces the first point--not a single company that comprised the Dow Jones Composite in 1929 is part of the Dow Jones today.
Thirdly, the author rails against fiat currencies, and yet at the same time, proposes that Bitcoin is valued in terms of those fiat currencies.
Look, I'm not saying that Bitcoin has *no* value--my contention is that we have absolutely no idea of how to properly value it. As far as I am concerned, Bitcoin isn't an investment--it is a gamble. I think people misjudge the value of Bitcoin because there is a finite number of Bitcoins so there is an artificial sense of supply and demand. However, since blockchaining is still in its infancy, while there is a finite amount of Bitcoin, there is potentially an infinite amount of block-chained cryptocurrencies. Should any other cryptocurrency become "fashionable" the net value of Bitcoin could, potentially, drop to zero (just like any other currency). The fact that there are currently only ~300,000 bitcoin adoptors makes this all the more likely.
Just my 2 coppers. Like I said earlier--congrats to those of you who've made a nice little bank from Bitcoin. This is definitely a sector to keep an eye on. [Reply]
Chinese media is reporting executives of crypto exchanges have been ordered to not leave the country with a very rough translation stating:
“A number of informed sources say the executives of special currency trading platforms are not allowed to leave Beijing to cooperate with the investigation. In accordance with regulatory requirements, trading platform shareholders, the actual controller, executives and financial executives need to fully cooperate with the relevant work in the clean-up period in Beijing.”
Australia’s Financial Review (AFR) says the above has been confirmed with them by “a source close to one of the biggest exchanges, Huobi,” which told them its founder, Li Lin, was required to “report to the authorities and cooperate with their work at any time.”
The draconian measure is undertaken following a decision by China’s Communist Party to close down all crypto exchanges, with trading volumes in the country dropping considerably.
Chinese trading volumes now account for only around 5% – 10% of bitcoin’s or ethereum’s global trading volumes. With price there significantly lower. Leading CoinMarketCap to exclude them from calculations of average prices.
What do we think about the probable fork to Bitcoin Gold coming up? Will it be as big of a hit to Bitcoin's marketcap as bitcoin cash was? Or will it be a smaller fork? [Reply]
Also, if anyone on here is an bitcoin expert and can help me out let me know. I'll even give you a commission fee once I can receive a small amount of ethereum I am having difficulty with.
I withdrew 1.5 ethereum from Yobit exchange wallet about 3 weeks ago, and it hasn't hit my wallet. I ran an ether blockchain scan that shows it went through, but I did not receive it. It's probably Yobit just being shady as ****, but I don't know how to prove it. Yobit says it was sent successfully. I've contacted the wallet it went to but they cannot see any record of it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Also, if anyone on here is an bitcoin expert and can help me out let me know. I'll even give you a commission fee once I can receive a small amount of ethereum I am having difficulty with.
I withdrew 1.5 ethereum from Yobit exchange wallet about 3 weeks ago, and it hasn't hit my wallet. I ran an ether blockchain scan that shows it went through, but I did not receive it. It's probably Yobit just being shady as ****, but I don't know how to prove it. Yobit says it was sent successfully. I've contacted the wallet it went to but they cannot see any record of it.
I would say your best bets are with any sort of available customer support with Yobit and/or the wallet you're using. BTW - what type of wallet are you using? [Reply]