Replay the tape at half-speed.


Broadly, Rice is inconsistent about his releases. Some of that is intentional; he isn't a Jerry Rice type of route-runner where every release is identical. He's more like, well DHop, where he mixes up his footwork on his releases. He just gets sloppy at times.

Quick example from the tape: In the first couple reps at the snap Rice's feet get wide, but he's not really going forward. Fundamentally, a WR wants to eat up the space between himself and the DB as rapidly as possible. Instead Rice gets wide immediately and allows the DB time and space to get ready when he finally gets going forward.

But then in the next few reps he seems to clean that up; his releases are much more vertical and attacking on the 45s to either side of the DB, consequently he gets the DB to open his hips and creates more space for the catch on those reps.

The last three reps he fails to get the DB to flip his hips, which is why there's no separation.

The concern is that Rice didn't seem to recognize that the DB hadn't flipped his hips. or if he did, he didn't know what to do about it. Considering Rice's speed/burst, if he doesn't get the DB to flip his hips in those types of situations, he will not be able to win the rep a lot of the time. He needs to improve his precision in those areas.

He runs pretty good stems as far as I can tell. he can physically hold his own if the DB gets handsy. example: He hand-battles well to hold his position up the numbers in the first rep, and then fades nicely to create space as the ball drops over his outside shoulder. He's not going to get bullied. Getting bullied was Christian Watson's problem for the first half of the season last year.

Rice tracks and catches with his hands well. He does let the ball get into his chest or shoulders too much.

The QB in this tape was late a couple of times, off-target at least twice.

So he sometimes runs good routes and sometimes he doesn't. He's got plenty of skills, just needs some coaching and polish.

Someone with more technical knowledge could get into the nitty-gritty, but fundamentally that's what i saw watching it twice.
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He doesn't seem to have a lot of suddenness to his breaks or movements when he tries to manipulate the defender. I think coaching will definitely help him with improving his route running.

At this point though, he just needs to learn the playbook , and if he can get to where he is supposed to be, then Mahomes will do the rest. And hopefully by the time camp starts, Skyy Moore will also have learned where he is supposed to be.
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He shows plenty of pop in some of his releases. So I'm pretty sure he's wasting some steps. When you don't have all-world speed every single step is critical and requires a lot of precision. Waste one or two and the DBs in the NFL will catch up most of the time. The great ones will throw a blanket over your head and beat you about the head and shoulders with their packages.

But when he gets it right he creates enough separation. He just needs to get a degree in route-running.
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I should also mention that the DB grabbed Rice several times in those reps. Would've been flagged for sure at least 4 times, I think. If he doesn't hold like that, Rice would've had a lot more sep on those reps.
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Literally each part.

Your comp is Jehu Chesson; but Rice is also a direct physical comp to Deandre Hopkins and Brandon Aiyuk. So why did you pick Chesson? Because you read a scouting report that doesn't like Rice and went with that. By the way, many of the same criticisms of Rice were also the criticisms people had for Hopkins and Aiyuk. Inconsistent route running, primarily. There's some slop there that he can get away with in college that he's going to need to clean up in the NFL. But you know, that's why he went #55 overall and not #5. It's not that he CAN'T run routes; he sometimes does, and he sometimes wastes steps on tape. His RAS explosion grades would indicate that with more discipline there he'll be fine.

When you watch, the drops are focus drops. He starts to run before he has the ball sometimes on easy ones. When you watch how he attacks the ball, he does not have bad hands.

Nobody in this class short of Smith-Nigba is close to flawless. But declaring Rice as an out of football in three years guy one day after the draft is asinine.

Moore struggled to get snaps as a rookie, but that was expected in Reid's offense and with 4 veteran WR's in front of him. I'm sure in year two he'll be fine. Rice will probably not get more targets as a rookie than Moore in year two. I have no idea who will ultimately have the better career, but using Moore as an example of a flop, and saying that Rice will be even worse is fucking stupid.

And I'm not going to argue anymore with you. Your football posts are nearly always negative, and almost always wrong, and you behave like Brett Veach has routinely built 7-9 teams and should be fired, because you clearly are so much better than he is.

You bitch after the fact, but have you ever popped into the draft forum and put your analysis on the line beforehand? Nope. Just complain afterwards and cherrypick scouting reports to be a jerk.

I like Rice, you don't. Fine.

You feel vindicated when a draft pick you didn't like didn't do much; I think that says it all right there.
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Christian Watson had horrible hands.

Until... he didn't. The second half of last year he looked pretty damn good and was Green Bay's most reliable receiving threat.

The "He doesn't have good hands!" stat is utter bullshit and should never be a dealbreaker if a WR has other great things going for him.
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But... production!

NUMBERS!!!!!!
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What round do you think Sky Moore would've went in this year's draft?
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2nd as well. This was a weaker WR class and in general.
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Cool thanks. I just curious to how him and Rice compared as prospects. As in terms of overall draft value rather than the difference in the players/styles themselves.
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So what's out expectations for Rice? Are we gonna do this whole song and dance again?
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Expectations?

If you're talking just from a non-stat point....I just want him to not look completely lost on the field.

Stat wise? I'd probably put him at around 400 yards and 4-5 TDs. People will bitch and moan that he wasn't out there putting up 1000 yard seasons or scoring 15 TDs. I think he'll have a better rookie year than Skyy Moore just because of his skillset.
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If he has 400 yards and 4 TD's I'd consider that a huge win.
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Moore's grasp of the system will be what determines how much production we get from Rice.

If Moore really did just have a 1st year 'red shirt' process where he needed to learn the system, he should be ahead of Rice and should be able to come in and get a lot of the reps/looks that JJSS left behind.

If Moore just doesn't have it, you'll see Rice get a lot of reps early and eventually take over that spot.

But with the addition of Toney to the room (vs. last August) as well as James coming in as a veteran receiver w/ experience in the system, Rice will have to force the issue to get reps. And the reps he gets between the 20s likely come at Moore's expense. If Moore is playing well - he won't get many.

I think at this point I'm more inclined to view Moore/Rice as a single entity and say that between the 2 I think we ought be able to get 1,000 yards. If that's 700 from Moore plus 300 from Rice - okay. That's fine. MVS, Toney and James can get 2,000 between the 3 of them, IMO and then Kelce gets his 1K+ w/ the RBs getting another 5-600.

This group can support another 5K yard passing season.
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I really think that they're splitting Juju's snaps into two spots. Rice is going to take all of those outside snaps and Moore is going to work from the slot. MVS will be the deep threat and Toney is who they'll move around a ton.
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