Several key players could be set for final seasons with Chiefs
When coach Andy Reid and general manager John Dorsey joined the Kansas City Chiefs in 2013, they used a collection of talented players from previous regimes as the foundation for what became a quick revitalization effort.
They also acquired talent to help early in their run, and many Chiefs have been part of the team’s effort throughout this successful stretch that has established the franchise as one of the NFL’s most consistent. Subsequent offseasons further augmented Kansas City’s balanced roster, one that continued to progress in the AFC hierarchy.
But January may have left the Chiefs at a crossroads.
Is Kansas City’s ceiling, as presently constructed, just a very good team that won’t be a threat to reach a Super Bowl as long as Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger are still going strong? Because it’s hard to say the events of this offseason put the Chiefs in a better position to compete with the New England Patriots or Pittsburgh Steelers this season.
If anything, this offseason looked to be more about solidifying pieces for the future than loading up for another run this season. And if that’s the case, the Chiefs have a notable throng of players who might be gearing up for their last seasons in western Missouri.
Quarterback Alex Smith‘s potential 2018 exit is tied directly to Patrick Mahomes’ readiness, but several other mainstays would make sense in joining him on the way out if Reid and new GM Brett Veach do jettison the starting QB. Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali and Allen Bailey came aboard as part of previous regimes’ investments, but they’ve been starters throughout this succession of playoff berths. Johnson and Hali are two of the best defenders in franchise history.
Cutting each of those players becomes much easier next year, as the dead money on their respective deals decreases. Given either these performers’ current career arcs, and the talent that resides behind them, it’s easy to see why Kansas City would look to make those cuts. The Chiefs, per the usual, are up against the projected cap come next year. They’re actually projected to be over the 2018 salary cap.
Removing Smith’s 2018 salary from the payroll would save the franchise $17 million. This is not a given, considering how raw Mahomes could be, but it’s hard to imagine Smith could hold down this job for two more full seasons if the tantalizing prospect is close to ready. The gap between these passers would have to be sizable if Kansas City were to keep Smith around on a $20.6M cap number next season.
Johnson is coming off another severe Achilles injury, and although K.C. needs him to come through this season, the Chiefs could use some of the money created from these prospective cuts to install a younger player here next season.
Probably the best Chiefs traditional linebacker since Willie Lanier and Bobby Bell retired, Johnson will be 35 in November. He already accepted a pay cut this year, and removing his $10.25M cap figure off the books would save the Chiefs $8M come March.
A Hali release saves $7M in 2018. And with Dee Ford’s contract ballooning to nearly $9M next season because of the fifth-year option the Chiefs exercised, it’s hard to believe they would keep a 34-year-old Hali around without a significant salary reduction.
Of course, Johnson and Hali could have seen their K.C. tenures end after the 2015 season. But Johnson’s Pro Bowl re-emergence in ’15 and the injury to Justin Houston gave the Chiefs good reasons to offer these cornerstones third contracts.
Bailey’s been a starter for the past three seasons. However, the former 2011 third-round pick is coming off a season where he played just five games. And Kansas City selected freak athlete Tanoh Kpassagnon in the second round. With Chris Jones already entrenched at one defensive end position, Kpassagnon could have a year to develop behind Bailey before becoming the starter. The Chiefs stand to save $6M by cutting the veteran end next year.
These transactions would open up nearly $40M in cap space for a team that is not accustomed to carrying much flexibility in March. If the Chiefs are serious about retooling around Eric Berry and a host of younger core components, they would be able to move in this direction after this season.
But every player who looms as a cut candidate in 2018 has a key role this season, making for an interesting overlap of eras.
Kansas City obviously needs Smith to spearhead this year’s team, one that didn’t do him any favors cutting wide receiver Jeremy Maclin at a time when comparable replacement talent wasn’t available. The Chiefs prioritized Bailey over Jaye Howard, whom they cut in April, as the better bet to return from injury. In coming out of Division I-FCS Villanova, the 6-foot-7 Kpassagnon may not be as ready-made for rookie-season success as Jones was.
Hali is vital insurance in case of another Houston injury, and he could be better utilized in a part-time pass-rushing role as he enters his mid-30s. In Year 13, Johnson is still the best inside linebacker the Chiefs have. Ramik Wilson’s nice 2016 season notwithstanding, the depth is not great here. And Le’Veon Bell showed how vulnerable the Chiefs can be without Johnson.
It might be frustrating that this year’s version appears less equipped to challenge for an AFC title, but the likes of Berry, Travis Kelce, Marcus Peters, Tyreek Hill and an offensive line that’s likely the best group K.C.’s had since the Willie Roaf/Will Shields glory days will still have prime years ahead come 2018.
Of course, there’s that whole “Will Mahomes be viable?” issue, but the franchise compiling a fresher roster to challenge older versions of Brady and Roethlisberger makes sense.
Making tough decisions before the ’18 league year starts will set the Chiefs up with a rare spending opportunity to reload with younger supplementary talent. The Chiefs don’t have any notable expiring contracts after this season, either, opening the door for some outside help.
This being a bridge season would go against the progression of the past four years, but the Chiefs have drafted well consistently and may have enough young talent to pull it off. Coming off an AFC West title, such a step would qualify as borderline radical. But if the recent playoff forays and current construction of the conference are any indication, it might be the prudent move to look at this through a longer-term lens.
