I've been looking into this some more and I've heard so many points made on this and honestly I think there's some merit in all of the arguments as to what's happening right now.
Obviously everyone is going to put to the 2 high shell coverage that everyone is employing. Yes that is a pretty large reason but it's more that it is highlighting a bunch of other issues the league has, but it isn't a new phenomenon. In 2018, the highest amount of two-high looks faced by any quarterback in the league was 42%. Eight weeks into the 2021 NFL season, only five teams had faced two-high safeties less than 40%. It’s been happening for quite some time.
Of course someone might say well this is a scheme that was popular a long time ago and the league moved away from it..well yes but the defenders back then were not nearly as athletic as the defenders today. By and large defenses are faster and more athletic than they've ever been before.
Now of course you can come up with the old school approach to beating this and simply say, run them out of that look. Well in 2004 you could do that, the league has changed since then. The vast majority of teams are not setup to just pound the rock. Starting at the fact that OL's are just not as good anymore, pretty much from high school-college-NFL they're all playing in spread offenses where the ball comes out incredibly fast and they are run blocking occasionally. When you are sitting in shotgun 85% of a game you aren't even lined up to run the ball to get someone out of 2 high. On top of that you are spreading the field and your TE is most likely just a big WR who is a marginal blocker. Everything you have built for and drafted for is to throw the ball and every level of development has been built that way since these guys were 14.
Your outside WR is basically being taken away by the scheme, you're ability to just run the ball isn't great because of where the game is today..so what do you do? Well...then it becomes a short passing/YAC game. I think this style of defense is why we've seen a pretty massive comeback of the career of Alvin Kamara, he's the perfect player to destroy the current NFL. It also makes someone like say DeVon Achane super valuable. A RB that has catching skills with the ability to make plays in the open field has massive value right now, Jamaal Charles would look even better if he played today.
Also as has been talked about, offenses just playing boring, taking their 4 -7 yards each play to march down the field to score..well that leads to low scoring games when the vast majority of teams are to sloppy to not commit penalties or turnovers.
Also this style of offense is going to relate back to what I heard Tom Brady say about development. Sure the transfer portal is great for the excitement of college football but it's terrible for development. The NFL has basically had to adjust to essentially using the spread offense because most guys come in with no concept of actually running a pro style offense. How many guys are drafted today that can actually do a 3,5 and 7 step drop and be on time in the offense? How many offensive linemen come into the NFL with experience doing anything other than lining up for shotgun snaps?
Also the "rookie QB window" is ruining development. Expecting a dude who honestly has less development that most QB's had 15 years ago to just come in and be the man right away is kind of insane. Baker Mayfield looks like a good NFL QB, he was thought to be washed at 1 point. But because of contracts etc, no team is going to just say "We'll he needs to sit for a year or 2 and then we'll bring him a long slowly"
Something else I think is affecting scoring that is weird as fuck in my view is field position and kicking. The kicking in the NFL is at a stupid high level, higher than ever. In Week 1 this year kickers went 21-23 on kicks over 50 yards a 91.3 rate. 5 years ago If you started at the 20 you needed to get to the opponents 30 for a realistic FG try, 50 yards. Now you start at the 30 and only need to reach the opponents 40 for a realistic FG try. I think this leads to far more conservative play calling.
It's almost like a perfect storm of offensive suppression. [Reply]
Originally Posted by ThrobProng:
Kiper is an oaf, but such a move by the NFL wouldn't surprise me at all.
Yeah, I don’t like it either and I’m not sure how you’d it would work, possibly the safeties have to be within 10-15 yards of the LOS at the snap. [Reply]
Originally Posted by louie aguiar:
Yeah, I don’t like it either and I’m not sure how you’d it would work, possibly the safeties have to be within 10-15 yards of the LOS at the snap.
I think that's exactly what they'd do. "Illegal formation on the defense" will become a thing. [Reply]
Originally Posted by louie aguiar:
Yeah, I don’t like it either and I’m not sure how you’d it would work, possibly the safeties have to be within 10-15 yards of the LOS at the snap.
I mean I get it, the league isn't as exciting as it once was.
He's also missing the point though back in the day those deep shots were there because if you played 2 high you'd give up 200 yards rushing. Now teams are more than willing to let you run because they either A don't think you'll be patient enough to keep doing it or B you'll get a penalty or get stuck in the red zone.
There was a time that if a team was goal to go and handed off 3 times they were getting in you couldn't stop it, now it's the opposite. [Reply]
The thing that actually surprises me is there was a time that you could get a team to stop playing a certain defense. "They have now run the ball for this many yards" so eventually team is like fuck we can't lose like this change it up.
Now teams are so patient, 'Run the ball for 300 yards we dare you" [Reply]
And I am afraid the chargers, maybe ahead of the curve on the new way to win (run the ball). And they also have a very talented QB.
I think everybody is underestimating how much of a threat they will be to us.
Can’t wait for that game. Hopefully the Chiefs put my fears to rest. And maybe hunt and steals will give us what we need to run more. And that should be a strength for Kingsley compared to his still learning at past blocking. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
The thing that actually surprises me is there was a time that you could get a team to stop playing a certain defense. "They have now run the ball for this many yards" so eventually team is like **** we can't lose like this change it up.
Now teams are so patient, 'Run the ball for 300 yards we dare you"
Andy will never do this and that’s the problem. He was better last week but it feels like he needs to surprise teams with a full on rushing attack.
Remember the AFCCG vs the Patriots in 2018? We played cover 2 and 3 and Bill said “fine we’ll run you over”. They ran the back 46 times. First half was 25 runs to 17 passes. The first 2 drives Tom only threw the ball like 6 times total. [Reply]
