Originally Posted by mililo4cpa:
These are good points for sure, and no disagreement from my end. But I see these situations as apples v. oranges
I think the human emotion involved in 9/11 was just as big as factor as the real liability related to it. You rightly point out that people didn't want to fly back then. That, to me, is what drove a lag in recovery.
In this case, I don't any raw fear of flying....once things are copasetic, I expect everything to return to normal. People are clamoring to get out, and once it's announced it's OK to travel, people will do so. The fear factor is minute in this situation (this is all my opinion, right or wrong)
In the meantime, there are 8 billion reasons (right now) as to why I don't think airlines will go under, and with the prices where they are at, why not make a speculative buy if you can afford to do so?
Basically, going long on airlines is betting on "business as usual" within this calendar year.
That ain't happening.
You're burning cash on that assumption. It's your money, but if I were managing it, I wouldn't touch airlines. [Reply]
Originally Posted by ghak99:
I'm not ready to bet on an airline, but would you have told me the same on disney and tesla?
Here's why I'd be hesitant to long Disney at this present moment in one picture courtesy of the Fool:
Tesla is a meme company. Nothing about their valuation makese sense. Their merger with SolarCity a few years ago borders on criminal malfeasance.
If you've got enough money to buy a share and it's not going to hamper your overall goals then why not. Otherwise nope. I don't believe in a con man like Elon Musk. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
Basically, going long on airlines is betting on "business as usual" within this calendar year.
That ain't happening.
You're burning cash on that assumption. It's your money, but if I were managing it, I wouldn't touch airlines.
So, your position is that people will not resume normal travel for at least another 8 months? I suppose this is possible, but I'd say not probable.
By the way, you can buy a plane ticket to Wuhan starting on April 26th....it's expensive as hell, and who knows between now and then if they actually fly or not, but apparently somebody expects to be back in business flying to the epicenter by then.... [Reply]
Originally Posted by mililo4cpa:
So, your position is that people will not resume normal travel for at least another 8 months? I suppose this is possible, but I'd say not probable.
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
Try two years.
Don't know how true this is or not, but the number I've seen is that 1.1M Americans travel for work (normally) every day....and this doesn't include the casual traveler, nor non-business related trips.
The U.S. is dead if it takes 2 years for normal travel to resume....no way, no how, not happening.... [Reply]
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
Here's why I'd be hesitant to long Disney at this present moment in one picture courtesy of the Fool:
Tesla is a meme company. Nothing about their valuation makese sense. Their merger with SolarCity a few years ago borders on criminal malfeasance.
If you've got enough money to buy a share and it's not going to hamper your overall goals then why not. Otherwise nope. I don't believe in a con man like Elon Musk.
Couldn't agree more on Tesla....doesn't make sense to me at all and agree that Musk is a con man. Does your Disney projections take into account the recent roll outs of Disney+ International markets? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
Try two years.
I agree.
Even if stuff starts opening up, concerns about the virus aren't going away over the next year and likely won't until there's a vaccine. There's going to be a large segment of the population that won't be going out to restaurants, won't be taking trips, won't be making large discretionary purchases, etc. Airlines are right in the crosshairs of that. [Reply]
Originally Posted by mililo4cpa:
In this case, I don't any raw fear of flying....once things are copasetic, I expect everything to return to normal. People are clamoring to get out, and once it's announced it's OK to travel, people will do so. The fear factor is minute in this situation (this is all my opinion, right or wrong)
Here's how I'd think about it:
There is no denying that the economic cost of the shutdown is devastating and almost certainly magnitudes moreso than the health-related costs of the virus itself. In a simplistic world, if there were no economic cost to the shutdown, one would assume the authorities would keep things on lockdown until they had fully stamped out the virus or developed a vaccine which no doubt would take over a year. So, if and when restrictions are eventually lifted and things are deemed 'copacetic' in the next several months, one can pretty logically conclude that it's not because there's an all-clear on the virus itself. But rather, the cost/benefit of keeping the economy shut down versus the risks of the virus have become slightly more balanced. But for people like myself who have a wife with a weak immune system, a newborn, and a mother with severe respiratory issues, am I going to resume my normal day-to-day interactions with others? Not a chance. Are there going to be lingering waves of re-infections? Absolutely. Is this going to act as an overhang on our economy? For sure.
I 100% agree that when the restrictions are lifted a lot of people will want to get out and resume their normal life, but I think that will at best come in bits and pieces. And airline travel is about the last thing that they're going to want to do at that point. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
Here's why I'd be hesitant to long Disney at this present moment in one picture courtesy of the Fool:
Tesla is a meme company. Nothing about their valuation makese sense. Their merger with SolarCity a few years ago borders on criminal malfeasance.
If you've got enough money to buy a share and it's not going to hamper your overall goals then why not. Otherwise nope. I don't believe in a con man like Elon Musk.
We seem to have vasty differing thought processes, but I do appreciate reading the differing perspective.
I'm way more than a share deep in tesla and don't even like Musk or the company in general. If I'm honest with myself, the companies I like and believe in are currently my worst performers, by far. I believe that belief is actually a hinderance of my being able to see them more objectively and in the past it cost me when other opportunities presented themselves. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TwistedChief:
Here's how I'd think about it:
There is no denying that the economic cost of the shutdown is devastating and almost certainly magnitudes moreso than the health-related costs of the virus itself. In a simplistic world, if there were no economic cost to the shutdown, one would assume the authorities would keep things on lockdown until they had fully stamped out the virus or developed a vaccine which no doubt would take over a year. So, if and when restrictions are eventually lifted and things are deemed 'copacetic' in the next several months, one can pretty logically conclude that it's not because there's an all-clear on the virus itself. But rather, the cost/benefit of keeping the economy shut down versus the risks of the virus have become slightly more balanced. But for people like myself who have a wife with a weak immune system, a newborn, and a mother with severe respiratory issues, am I going to resume my normal day-to-day interactions with others? Not a chance. Are there going to be lingering waves of re-infections? Absolutely. Is this going to act as an overhang on our economy? For sure.
I 100% agree that when the restrictions are lifted a lot of people will want to get out and resume their normal life, but I think that will at best come in bits and pieces. And airline travel is about the last thing that they're going to want to do at that point.
From a micro-standpoint, there are lots of examples of people that will not, or should not, risk travel (your specific situation included). My belief is that, if the announcement was made tomorrow that it's "all clear and safe to travel", the 1.1M Americans that fly for business each day, and vast majority of casual flyers will do the same. So, it's not a matter of "if", but "when" the all clear is given. I believe that April, May, and June are going to be the 3 months of hell, and from there, things will start to open up. and when it doesn't, people will be more than itching to get back to business. For there to be a 2 year recovery, I'd think there would have to be at least another 12 months of restriction, and I just cannot see that happening.... [Reply]
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
Here's why I'd be hesitant to long Disney at this present moment in one picture courtesy of the Fool:
Tesla is a meme company. Nothing about their valuation makese sense. Their merger with SolarCity a few years ago borders on criminal malfeasance.
If you've got enough money to buy a share and it's not going to hamper your overall goals then why not. Otherwise nope. I don't believe in a con man like Elon Musk.
This company will hit $2k per share easy. Wait till the base model y hits next year.
Do you all even realize a $40k car was the 8th highest selling car? It's in the top 25 when adding in SUVs. I guarantee the model Y will be top 10. Take it to the bank.
Edit: To add even more perspective, the entire Auto Industry is eating a shit sandwich right now, except for Tesla. They are expected to outpace the industry by 25% for growth. Rich people have money and buy cool cars like Tesla even during shaky economic times. It's the middle class and below who can no longer afford to splurge on mainstream vehicles.
This company will hit $2k per share easy. Wait till the base model y hits next year.
Do you all even realize a $40k car was the 8th highest selling car? It's in the top 25 when adding in SUVs. I guarantee the model Y will be top 10. Take it to the bank.
Edit: To add even more perspective, the entire Auto Industry is eating a shit sandwich right now, except for Tesla. They are expected to outpace the industry by 25% for growth. Rich people have money and buy cool cars like Tesla even during shaky economic times. It's the middle class and below who can no longer afford to splurge on mainstream vehicles.
