Because of all the interest in this thread, I've place all of the video content of Patrick Mahomes II's college career, and draft day goodness into a single post that can be found here. Enjoy! [Reply]
Tom Brady won a championship in 2018 with Trent Brown, a cast-off RT who was forced to start at LT after their presumed starter was injured and lost for the season in camp. He had Marcus Cannon, past his prime and never very good to begin with, at RT. His IOL was Andrews, Mason and Thuney -- a good IOL, but not great. He was throwing to a washed Edelman, Gronk on his way out of the league and Josh Gordon. None of them had more than 850 yards receiving.
In 2015 he threw for 4700 yards and a 36/7 TD/INT ratio with Sebastian Volmer and a pile of scraps at LT along with 3 rookies on his interior line and that very same pretty average Marcus Cannon at RT. He was throwing to Gronk, Edelman (who missed about half the season) Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell.
I've spent decades watching Brady, Manning and Montana MAKE their offensive linemen. And they never did that by running around with their hair on fire -- they did it by running the offense on time. All too often, Mahomes doesn't. That's when he gets in trouble. He was at his best THIS season when he was just working the offense and getting the ball out on time.
I can be critical of Mahomes but I really can’t fuck with this comparison. Mahomes just led us to two Super Bowl wins himself. The first one was with a LT who is no longer in the league, a 7th round rookie RB, and a WR collection of Juju, MVS, Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore. The second one was similar, a LT who is no longer in the league and a WR collection of Rashee Rice, MVS, Justin Watson and Mecole Hardman.
And that’s not to mention the 2019 Super Bowl with a weak interior OL.
Mahomes has definitely elevated the play of the guys around him and he’s done it pretty consistently throughout his career. We lost one game and it’s a bummer, but let’s not get too crazy. [Reply]
Originally Posted by ThaVirus:
I can be critical of Mahomes but I really can’t **** with this comparison. Mahomes just led us to two Super Bowl wins himself. The first one was with a LT who is no longer in the league, a 7th round rookie RB, and a WR collection of Juju, MVS, Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore. The second one was similar, a LT who is no longer in the league and a WR collection of Rashee Rice, MVS, Justin Watson and Mecole Hardman.
And that’s not to mention the 2019 Super Bowl with a weak interior OL.
Mahomes has definitely elevated the play of the guys around him and he’s done it pretty consistently throughout his career. We lost one game and it’s a bummer, but let’s not get too crazy.
We could have lost all 3 super bowls and Mahomes won it for us. It was up to Veach and Andy to protect him this time around and they failed miserably. Last year should have been eye opening. GOod SF's pass rush last year wasn't as dominant as Philly's - yeah they have some good players along their D-line but not enough elite speed rushers. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Sassy Squatch:
Kind of why I'm coming around to a RB early. Because there were a handful of games this season where we leaned heavily on it while Mahomes was a bit lost in his own sauce. It's not an ideal game plan but sometimes you just need to take the air out of it and slow him down when it's clear he's got the yips.
I have been banging this drum for a few years. Get Pat a stud RB and you unlock an unstoppable offense as long as the Oline is decent or better. [Reply]
Originally Posted by ThaVirus:
I can be critical of Mahomes but I really can’t fuck with this comparison. Mahomes just led us to two Super Bowl wins himself. The first one was with a LT who is no longer in the league, a 7th round rookie RB, and a WR collection of Juju, MVS, Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore. The second one was similar, a LT who is no longer in the league and a WR collection of Rashee Rice, MVS, Justin Watson and Mecole Hardman.
And that’s not to mention the 2019 Super Bowl with a weak interior OL.
Mahomes has definitely elevated the play of the guys around him and he’s done it pretty consistently throughout his career. We lost one game and it’s a bummer, but let’s not get too crazy.
My main thing is looking at other teams around the league. Chiefs had the weakest blind side OL of any team in the Playoffs. They had a Left Guard playing Left Tackle, and a backup dude at Left Guard. VERY fortunate to make it past Houston & Buffalo in this situation.
Other contending teams had much stronger LT & LG situations and got knocked out of the Playoffs much earlier. I'm looking at Detroit, Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston, the Chargers, Tampa, and Green Bay in particular. If you gave Mahomes the LT & LG combo of any of those teams, the Super Bowl probably would have been a lot more competitive. Maybe they still lose, but I think it would have been a better game. [Reply]
Patrick Mahomes was one of the worst Super Bowl QBs of all time, and the analytics prove it
Patrick Mahomes was atrocious in Super Bowl LIX. It doesn’t take an advanced understanding of football to know that. For the bulk of the game Mahomes was either running for his life, making ill-advised throws, or simply so flustered that he couldn’t complete passes he’s done a thousand times before.
It wasn’t until garbage time that Mahomes did anything, and at that point the Eagles were already celebrating on the sideline and pouring their Gatorade. It served to make the box score appear a little closer than it was, when in reality Super Bowl LIX was one of the biggest beatdowns in the modern era
That’s all anecdotal evidence. The “eye test” of player evaluation. When we dive into the analytics of the game we see how Mahomes wasn’t just bad, he was historically bad.
The only player who was worse than Mahomes since 2000 was Rich Gannon in Super Bowl XXXVII, when he threw five interceptions (including three pick sixes) in the Raiders’ horrific 48-21 loss to the Buccaneers.
If we look at the last seven years of the Super Bowl and filter out garbage time performance here’s how the QB ranks in EPA per dropback.
Patrick Mahomes (2022): 0.559
Tom Brady (2020): 0.546
Jalen Hurts (2024): 0.325
Jalen Hurts (2022): 0.232
Brock Purdy (2023): 0.191
Patrick Mahomes (2019): 0.187
Matthew Stafford (2021): 0.184
Patrick Mahomes (2023): 0.157
Jimmy Garoppolo (2019) 0.038
Joe Burrow (2021): -0.141
Tom Brady (2018): -0.002
Patrick Mahomes (2020): -0.277
Jared Goff (2018): -0.302
Patrick Mahomes (2024): -1.248
Not only was Mahomes the worst QB of this timeframe, but he was over FOUR TIMES worse than the next worst QB. EPA measured expected points added, with negative ratings being quite rare for Super Bowl quarterbacks. Achieving over a -1.0 is damn-near unheard of — seriously.
Think of the worst quarterbacks you can in the past several years. Absolutely worthless players. None of them come remotely close to how bad Mahomes was in the Super Bowl.
Zach Wilson? -0.213
Deshaun Watson with the Browns? -0.175
Fundamentally costing your team over one point every play you’re on the field for is unheard of. Meanwhile, the performance was so bad that it pushed Mahomes’ overall standing over this era and turned him into a middling Super Bowl QB, which we know is ridiculous.
We can certainly appreciate the brilliance of Patrick Mahomes in totality, while also discussing how atrocious he was in Super Bowl LIX. Other factors were involved like a porous offensive line, and bad receiver separation — but it doesn’t change the fact that the single biggest reason the Chiefs lost to the Eagles was that Mahomes was ineffective under center, regardless of the reason why.
How he lives in infamy as having one of the worst Super Bowl games of all time by a quarterback. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DRM08:
My main thing is looking at other teams around the league. Chiefs had the weakest blind side OL of any team in the Playoffs. They had a Left Guard playing Left Tackle, and a backup dude at Left Guard. VERY fortunate to make it past Houston & Buffalo in this situation.
Other contending teams had much stronger LT & LG situations and got knocked out of the Playoffs much earlier. I'm looking at Detroit, Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston, the Chargers, Tampa, and Green Bay in particular. If you gave Mahomes the LT & LG combo of any of those teams, the Super Bowl probably would have been a lot more competitive. Maybe they still lose, but I think it would have been a better game.
If the offense/OL was even as good as it was against Houston, I think we win. That's also assuming Pat doesn't still turn it over. We completely shut the run game down, we just couldn't capitalize on it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
I have been banging this drum for a few years. Get Pat a stud RB and you unlock an unstoppable offense as long as the Oline is decent or better.
We could have Barry Sanders and Andy Reid would totally ignore doing anything other than running up the ass on first down. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
This is going to make KCC really, really mad.
Why would stating the obvious do that? He clearly played a bad game. That goes hand in hand with his line getting absolutely annihilated, but that is no excuse for some of those throws he made. Doesn't make it a reflection on his season or the kind of player he is going forward.
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
I have been banging this drum for a few years. Get Pat a stud RB and you unlock an unstoppable offense as long as the Oline is decent or better.
Coaches gotta use the RB in the right way as well. I like what Buffalo has been doing with James Cook. Similar to Jet McKinnon, but more explosive than McKinnon. There have been several plays the last couple seasons where Josh Allen will throw a little horizontal pass and James Cook takes it 50-60 yards downfield in the blink of an eye. Josh probably loves that stuff, easiest big play yardage of his career. [Reply]
I get that it's an article about how Sunday was the worst performance in a recent Super Bowl but notice who had the BEST performance on that list? [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
If we look at the last seven years of the Super Bowl and filter out garbage time performance here’s how the QB ranks in EPA per dropback.
Patrick Mahomes (2022): 0.559
Tom Brady (2020): 0.546
Jalen Hurts (2024): 0.325
Jalen Hurts (2022): 0.232
Brock Purdy (2023): 0.191
Patrick Mahomes (2019): 0.187
Matthew Stafford (2021): 0.184
Patrick Mahomes (2023): 0.157
Jimmy Garoppolo (2019) 0.038
Joe Burrow (2021): -0.141
Tom Brady (2018): -0.002
Patrick Mahomes (2020): -0.277
Jared Goff (2018): -0.302
Patrick Mahomes (2024): -1.248
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
I get that it's an article about how Sunday was the worst performance in a recent Super Bowl but notice who had the BEST performance on that list?
Funny enough, people claim Jalen Hurts outplayed Mahomes in THAT game too...even though the advanced stats (and Jalen's fumble TD) would strongly suggest the opposite. Jalen played very well in that game two years ago, but you can't have a fumble TD in a game you lose by 3 points. It was the deciding factor in the game. Mahomes had zero turnover worthy plays in that game by comparison.
Mahomes needed another flawless performance like that in the rematch, but he just didn't have it this time around. Gotta find a way to be more careful with the ball, even when the OL is getting killed on most plays. Take the sacks, throw the ball in the dirt for intentional grounding, throw it out of bounds...just don't put it up for grabs to let the other team get 14 cheap points. [Reply]
