Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
With as long as he spent in Memphis last year, they might still have 6.
He had 149 days of service time coming into 2024, according to fangraphs. Its 172 days for a full year, so he needs 23 days this year to break a full year. Cardinals opened on April 4 and sent him down on the 24th. So he still needs 3 days, if I'm not missing something.
I have to imagine he'll be traded long before he reaches 6 years of service time, probably before he even reaches 1 year. If he continues to suck in AAA he's going to start the year there next year and thats going to trigger his final option. Then his trade value will plummet, because if he still doesnt get it he'll have to either be on the MLB roster or waived and you arent going to waive a prospect with that potential before you trade him. We aren't talking about Estevan Florial here. [Reply]
Originally Posted by jd1020:
He had 149 days of service time coming into 2024, according to fangraphs. Its 172 days for a full year, so he needs 23 days this year to break a full year. Cardinals opened on April 4 and sent him down on the 24th. So he still needs 3 days, if I'm not missing something.
I have to imagine he'll be traded long before he reaches 6 years of service time, probably before he even reaches 1 year. If he continues to suck in AAA he's going to start the year there next year and thats going to trigger his final option. Then his trade value will plummet, because if he still doesnt get it he'll have to either be on the MLB roster or waived and you arent going to waive a prospect with that potential before you trade him. We aren't talking about Estevan Florial here.
That's by fair and away the biggest mistake the organization made in bringing him north in 2023 - they started burning through his option years.
It was just so dumb. But developmentally, it shouldn't STILL matter. Because again - he got to even footing by the last half of the season last year. He'd found some form to build on.
And instead regressed. Badly. To the point that he's not even really an asset in AAA right now. And the organization isn't rewarding that with a call-up (and are only getting criticized for it).
They'll probably end up forcing him into the lineup sometime in 2025 and into 2026 to either sink or swim. And ultimately that's going to be after more than 2 seasons worth of ABs in AAA to establish who he is.
So the options thing will likely sort itself out to some extent. But he needs to start developing. [Reply]
One thing that baffles me about Jordan Walker is they have exit velo readings at Memphis and I swear I always see people post about how hard he's hitting the ball. He still has a lot of supporters in his camp. And then I'm flabbergasted when I see his .244/.313/.376 slash line. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Ocotillo:
One thing that baffles me about Jordan Walker is they have exit velo readings at Memphis and I swear I always see people post about how hard he's hitting the ball. He still has a lot of supporters in his camp. And then I'm flabbergasted when I see his .244/.313/.376 slash line.
Because he doesn't hit the ball in the air. You can smash a ground ball 110mph and its still an out or a single at best.
Just get the ball in the air. That's it. You dont even have to hit it hard. Look at Isaac Paredes. The guy is the finesse pitcher version of a hitter and he's consistently 130+ wRC+ because he gets the ball in the air. [Reply]
— Cardinals Player Development (@CardsPlayerDev) July 13, 2024
Dunno much about him. Seems to be a fast riser; similar to Tink Hence in that he came from nowhere to explode up the prospect ranks.
Looks to me like the results are better than the stuff. Guessing he's a lefty that hides the ball really well. We won't know much about him until he gets to AAA. Or at least gets around 75 innings under his belt in AA. I just wanna see how his stuff works against more advanced hitters.
In the low minors, deception will get you a long way. By the time you get to AA and AAA, you have to actually be able to beat these guys to get those kinds of results. I just don't think you can scout stat lines in the low minors (at least not with pitchers; I think it works a little better for hitters). I mean he punched a guy out on a hung breaker in that clip and then threw an okay fastball to get the next guy but a big leaguer's going to spit on that pitch 9 times out of 10 (it wasn't a very competitive pitch; looked like a waste pitch that the guy swung at).
I like the delivery, though. Linear, fairly quiet, good finish. Maybe a little violent but nothing extreme. Looks like a nice foundation. I mean the guys getting outs and performing and there's nothing not to like about that. I just caution against putting too much stock in his numbers just yet. [Reply]
Originally Posted by jd1020:
Because he doesn't hit the ball in the air. You can smash a ground ball 110mph and its still an out or a single at best.
Just get the ball in the air. That's it. You dont even have to hit it hard. Look at Isaac Paredes. The guy is the finesse pitcher version of a hitter and he's consistently 130+ wRC+ because he gets the ball in the air.
Exactly.
A 110 mph grounder is still a nothingburger but it'll help those exit velocity figures a lot.
With his hands as quick as they are and the insane raw power he has, if he'd just work on using his hips it would take him a long way. For right now he needs to focus on opening up and destroying anything on the inner-half. Make guys inside-conscious. Then they'll start pitching you away and you can use that incredible reach and raw power to start driving balls into RC field. And with that raw power, plenty of those will go out.
He has so much offensive potential and he's just not using any of it. Reminds me so much of Heyward. Heyward was his own worst enemy his whole career. Everything he did seemed to be with the intent of cutting down strikouts and destroying his natural power. He did all this weird shit to shorten his swing and make himself an inside out hitter that it just gutted all his tools.
Walker's doing the same thing. G'damn man, let the bat eat. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
He has so much offensive potential and he's just not using any of it. Reminds me so much of Heyward. Heyward was his own worst enemy his whole career. Everything he did seemed to be with the intent of cutting down strikouts and destroying his natural power. He did all this weird shit to shorten his swing and make himself an inside out hitter that it just gutted all his tools.
Heyward had a .393 OBP at age 20. His most similar batter by age on Baseball Reference was Willie Mays at 20 LOL
The rest of his career was a lot of frustration and meh. [Reply]
In the low minors, deception will get you a long way. By the time you get to AA and AAA, you have to actually be able to beat these guys to get those kinds of results.
That's a great point. College arms typically have their way with the lower minors. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Ocotillo:
Heyward had a .393 OBP at age 20. His most similar batter by age on Baseball Reference was Willie Mays at 20 LOL
The rest of his career was a lot of frustration and meh.
I've never leaned harder into the idea that "once you demonstrate a skill, you own it until age or injury takes it from you..."
Heyward was the most obvious candidate in the world for that axiom. After his age 22 season, the sky was the limit for him. He showed power and patience and everything you'd want from a perpetual 30/30 candidate who should be getting MVP votes annually. He was a 22 year old superstar in waiting.
And then...wasn't. He got hit by that pitch (broke his jaw, right?) and was just never the same. The argument would be, I guess, that 'injury' took it away from him by making him tentative. But damn man, he was 23 when that happened; I just don't buy it 2 or 3 years later.
From a pure technique standpoint, he was getting in his own way. He just wouldn't open up his shoulders/hips and drive the damn ball. He was so closed off trying to reduce his K-Rate that he jammed himself on anything from the middle in.
The only pitches he drove were pitches down and away that FORCED him to extend his arms. He ruined himself. Age didn't do it, injury didn't do it. He did to himself. I can't think of many guys like it. [Reply]