2 days in a row the market is up


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Just means puts to hedge your long equity positions are even cheaper.
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Do you think the expected unemployment was at all priced into the initial crash?
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The initial drop was due to that wonderfully timed Saudi Arabian / Russian nuclear bomb to successfully destroy our oil industry.

Do I think the market has priced in 30% unemployment in 2020? Nope.
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Do you think there is going to be 30% unemployment?
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Just a matter of how long this drags out to me. If we think there's a good chance that at least some of society will open up in a month or two, 30% seems way too high. If this is a 6+ month situation, I don't think it's out of the question that it could go that high.
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6 months would be absurd. I dont think anyone would stand by and just watch the annihilation of our society.
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buy bitcoin. These hacks are trying to ruin us all.
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3 major crashes in the last 20 years. And people expect folks to save for retirement through the best possible facilitator (the market).

SS ain’t going anywhere
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Commercial RE defaults have to be coming down the pipe

The Cheesecake Factory tells landlords it will not be paying rents on April 1 https://t.co/AHjWusegPa pic.twitter.com/XlAevQxwWm

— Eater (@Eater) March 25, 2020

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TLDR

Summarize?
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Panglossian levels of buttfuckingly stupid optimism.

Don't waste your time.
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Money is coming to help people pay their bills BUT:

Government gives the tenants the right to put off paying rent without eviction.

They also give the landlords right to put off paying mortgages but ONLY IF YOUR MORTGAGE IS BACKED BY FREDDIE MAC OR FANNIE MAY.

Which mine are not.

Our local JOP has a sign up saying there will be no eviction hearings until further notice.


I hate the notion of asking my lender to convert to interest only loans for awhile.
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More downturn coming when unemployment numbers come out?
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