Originally Posted by TEX:
Dude, you're so predictable it's laughable. I could give a horses ass what you think. Check back in 15 years and see who has accomplished more. My money is on #15. You can resort to comparing the preset to the past. I really can't blame you there. It's all you have. :-)
Originally Posted by Mile High Mania:
Well, here we go... the Broncos are interviewing Klint Kubiak for the OC position. Klint is the QB coach in MIN, has been coaching for just over a decade and spent some time up through 2018 in Denver as an offensive assistant.
If they hire Klint as the OC and knowing that Paton also came from MIN... with our new HC having spent time in that division... the Broncos will make a trade for Kirk Cousins.
If they hire Klint... that's the move, bank on it.
It's easy to say that Cousins would be better than any QB since Manning retired, it's a low bar. Cousins is a 10 year vet and 33 years old. Not exactly the option I would like, but I would be ok with it for the right price.
Believe he has 1 year left with a whopping $45M in dead cap money, so they would have to restructure/sign and trade... however that works best.
57 games in WAS, he had 99 TDs and 55 INTs - record of 26/30/1
63 games in MIN, he had 124 TDS and 36 INTs - record of 33/29/1
Stats - greatly improved, W/L - not so much really.
1-3 overall in the playoffs, only made it once in MIN (2019) and his stats were lackluster.
Again, I'm not advocating for him by making this post... just saying, if Klint is the guy they hire, then watch... Cousins will be the play. I truly do not think they will have the stomach for a price to lure Rodgers at his age. I would hope they look at Wilson if he's really available, but who knows.
Ok, fire away.
It boggles my mind that he can have nearly 4 times as many TDs as INTs and still be barely above .500 in MIN. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
You might run the numbers again to reduce your boggledness.
So Cousins has 3.44 times as many TDs as INTs in his time at MIN. I wanted to see which seasons Denver had QB play resulting in a higher ratio since Elway retired, that list is:
Peyton Manning in 2013
That’s it. Brian Griese was higher in 2000, but he only started 10 games, and Gus Frerotte dragged the total ratio down. [Reply]
Originally Posted by MagicHef:
So Cousins has 3.44 times as many TDs as INTs in his time at MIN. I wanted to see which seasons Denver had QB play resulting in a higher ratio since Elway retired, that list is:
Peyton Manning in 2013
That’s it. Brian Griese was higher in 2000, but he only started 10 games, and Gus Frerotte dragged the total ratio down.
I didn’t expect it to, but I was actually surprised at how high his ratio was in some of those later years, because I knew he threw a lot of interceptions. [Reply]
The Athletic recently wrote an article on the Cousins conundrum:
Originally Posted by :
Cousins’ elite statistical record is well established, too. Since he became a regular starter in 2015, only seven quarterbacks have maintained a passer rating above 100, with Cousins slotting just above Tom Brady at sixth. Cousins also ranks sixth in adjusted net yards per attempt over that time and fourth in completion rate over expected, a measure that accounts for the difficulty of throws downfield and to the sidelines.
As we add context to some of these statistics, however, Cousins falls a bit relative to his peers. He sits 10th in that group in PFF grade over that time and 13th in garbage-time adjusted EPA/play. This is among a group of 42 quarterbacks, so it’s not a bad ranking, per se. But it begins to paint a picture.
On top of that, we have to look at how quarterbacks play in high-leverage situations. After all, one of the ways quarterbacks express their importance is how they perform on third-and-long and when forced to pass down multiple scores late in the game.
On that second point, Cousins hasn’t been particularly effective. Ben Baldwin, a football analytics researcher and contributor to The Athletic, has looked extensively at quarterbacks when playing from behind (within a two-score margin) with less than 10 minutes left. Below is a chart of how often a drive has succeeded after adjusting for field position and time remaining. (Cousins is there at No. 75.)
Here is a giant table with zero explanation that I made awhile ago and never bothered to do anything with
Cousins’ teams have been well below average in this respect, too, and we can attribute a lot of that to the passing game. When looking at expected points gained (EPA) on passing plays in those situations, Cousins turns out to be lackluster. His average of minus-0.028 EPA per play ranks 30th in the NFL.
That holds true on third-and-long as well, where there isn’t much threat of a run and the yardage gained is secondary to the ability to convert a new set of downs — 5 yards on third-and-7 is typically a bad play outside of very specific circumstances. His average of 0.033 expected points per passing attempt in that situation sits 25th in the league.
Third-down play is fairly volatile year-to-year, so players with fewer attempts in those situations are likely to regress to their standard-down EPA, but that’s not a good explanation for why Cousins ranks so poorly relative to his normal EPA given the sheer number of attempts he’s had in this scenario. He ranks 13th of those 42 quarterbacks on standard downs (defined as first and second downs, before final 10 minutes), but 25th in clutch situations (third-and-long, trailing or leading with 10 minutes left).
We can crudely combine this, EPA when leading late in the game by two or fewer scores (Cousins ranks 24th among his cohorts) and EPA when trailing late in the game by two or fewer scores to create a rough “clutchness” index, which we can then compare to all-purpose play throughout the rest of the game. When looking at the difference between that and play on standard downs before the final 10 minutes of the game, we can then figure out which quarterbacks are most stymied by situational football.
That final calculation doesn’t tell us which quarterbacks are “best” in the clutch — the second one does a much better job of that — but rather which quarterbacks are better or worse than they usually play when it comes to situational football. They are simply being compared to themselves, which might help us reveal a weakness or strength in their games. The final number is essentially an estimated percent difference in performance dropoff in clutch situations versus standard ones.
It’s relevant that it is easier to get better in small samples (like “clutch” situations) when standard play is so poor — and vice versa — but Cousins’ play dropping off in the most important situations in a football game is a good explanation for why his teams don’t win despite his generally high level of play even after a sizable sample of play. As somewhere between the seventh and 10th best quarterback in the league, we’d expect an above-average win rate. Given that Cousins has usually had an excellent supporting cast, we might expect even higher.
How has Cousins created this gulf between his every-down play and his play in high-leverage situations? It goes back to what makes him tick.
Security, structure and making good decisions
Cousins’ NFL career has been driven by security. Security with the ball, security in making the right decisions and security in the eyes of the organization that employs him.
