This might be the most confusing one yet.
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guess I am a year too late. To ask if Lions players get bailing wire tattoos
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It’s silly to just hand wave away a worst case scenario 3rd and 4 vs 3rd and 9. That’s a huge difference in what you call and even maybe even going for it on fourth. You pretty much have to pass on 3rd and 9. 3rd and 4 is far easier, especially for such a good running QB. It’s very possibly a first down but more likely worst case 3rd and 2. From there you simply do the one thing that is basically impossible to stop which is Allen running for three yards.

Again if Allen is determined to make that throw he has to actually make it. It was out of timeout so they obviously specifically wanted this play. He knew where he was going with it. But he rushed his throw instead of stepping ever so slightly to the obvious pressure that was coming. He made it way more difficult than it should have been with terrible pocket awareness. Again, the entire drive he was making mistakes and definitely not dialed in. This was just the last big one.
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Easy first if he checks down
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Despite the shit I'll give Allen lovers he's the one QB that consistently ups his game in the playoffs to match Mahomes. The Bills are able to consistently sustain long drives and score pts vs. what was most likely the best D in the NFL last year. Allen seems to have a very Elway-like career path with the misfortune of having his Joe Montana in the same conference.
Allen, in the playoffs, rises to the occasion. It's no insult that he can't get it done vs. the greatest QB to ever play.
And frankly it just gives us better games and brighter moments. At no point during the Ravens game was I worried we might lose. We clearly were in their heads. The last few Bills games have gone back and forth and back and forth right up 'till the end.
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I agree with everything you said, except I disagree with you where you implied that we're not in the Bills' heads. I think we are, but it just works differently.
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Without question he’s the second best QB right now and is the only one with a prayer of keeping up with Mahomes when he’s on his A game.
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Tranquil is a plus athlete. Looks to me like Drue is maintaining depth, keeping eyes on the QB until the ball is thrown. An athlete like Tranquil can eat up 5 yards very quickly once he notices the QB start his throwing motion.

You can see that Diggs would immediately be hemmed in by Bolton out there defending Kincaid on the out route as well. I mean, I don’t believe Diggs is going to cover the 6 yards necessary after making that catch with Bolton and Tranquil lurking there. It’s definitely possible but I think it’s unlikely.

Especially for Diggs. Diggs had 8 targets for 3 catches this game. He was basically worthless. He’s basically always worthless for them in the postseason. For a guy his size, he’s never truly been a plus athlete anyway. He ran a 4.47 like 10 years ago. He’s probably more of a 4.5 guy now and at 190 or whatever he’s likely playing at, the dude is far from a burner. He’s not really dangerous after the catch.

If anything, with the full power of retrospect, Kincaid looks to be the optimal target there. He’s wide open by NFL standards and he certainly would have had enough yardage to gain the 1st down.

Your mindset is a little confusing. You’re talking about how it was too risky for Allen to try to throw a wide open TD pass in the same breath that you’re arguing they should have considered going for it if they found themselves in a 4th and short situation? You’d advocate going for a 4th and 2ish in field goal range, down 3 with less than 2 minutes remaining but don’t advocate trying to throw the go-ahead TD in the same situation? That logic doesn't make sense to me.

I’ll agree that his biggest mistake was not taking a step to the right before unloading. He had a ton of real estate to do so.. but at this point I just cannot agree that it wasn’t the right choice in that moment. I’ve seen and heard nothing that would change my mind and firmly believe that if we had Mahomes, Kelce and Reid on this forum right now, they would all agree with me.

For the record, I don’t think him missing this throw is any indication that he wasn’t “dialed in” or broader proof of processing issues or whatever. Our defense was potentially the best in the league last year. It was extremely good. The other 11 guys get paid too and sometimes they’ll win. That’s what I chalk this one up to. Just Chris Jones dropping trou and making the impact play he’s been known for in huge moments like this for nearly half a decade now.

Also, also, you are being unnecessarily critical of Allen on a couple missed throws/reads. No one will say anything because we ended up winning in the end, but Mahomes missed throws and reads this game too. Hell, he overthrew two of the easiest TDs he’d ever have on back-to-back plays on our second drive. I’m not going to go back and rewatch the game to prove that point, but I’m sure he missed some other plays as well.
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Allen doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt like Mahomes as he hasn’t earned it so that’s a pointless comparison. And it wasn’t just one play that he lost focus and composure. It was basically that whole drive he was all over the place, forcing throws, and twice making really dumb plays that were inches away from being turnovers.

And regarding the 2nd and 9, I didn’t say it was a risky play. I said it he made it a risky play with poor pocket awareness and choosing a long throw while potentially getting bumped.

As for the 4th and short comparison, I am pretty confident Allen is converting that at a MUCH higher rate than he is a 30 yard pass. So I don’t see that nearly as much of a challenging play given his skill set.
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I feel ya. I don't think we are likely to agree at this point so it’s prob best to end it.

Fun debate, though. Thank you.
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I felt the same about the Ravens game. Their team thought because we were in their house they could bully us. Our defense was bullying them all game, and their players got mad and wanted to fight instead of focus on the game.
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That level of arrogance from the team was something else.

You expect it from idiot fans who have watched their team win Super Bowls with Trent Dilfer and Joe Flacco.... but you'd think maybe someone would remind them they aren't playing a fucking dude named Kerry this time.

The meltdown was epic and for the Chiefs it's such an understated advantage of experience and composure, even as the personnel changes around Mahomes.
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Baltimore wins by bullying other teams. One team they can’t bully is KC. I remember Jackson saying before the game that he doesn’t like competing against Mahomes. Being the leader of that team and saying that is pretty telling. KC is in a place where they do the bullying and force teams to play how KC wants them to play vs doing what works. Buffalo last year in the divisional round was an exception to that.
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Lamar is in a trademark conflict over the use of the number 8 with Troy Aikman. He will be content to ride that MVP for 2-3 years
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The Bills suck.
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