Because of all the interest in this thread, I've place all of the video content of Patrick Mahomes II's college career, and draft day goodness into a single post that can be found here. Enjoy! [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
six of one, half a dozen of the other
Six in one hand: "Mahomes will throw it to you if you're in the right spot ergo Rice clearly isn't in the right spot because Mahomes isn't throwing it to him..."
Half dozen in the other: "Mahomes isn't throwing it, right spot or not..."
No, these aren't equivalent statements.
Mahomes biggest problem is Mahomes. And I don't even fault him for it - EVERY QB has a 'down' season on their resume where things just never really lock all the way in for whatever reason. Then they start to play tight and this is the end result. Sometimes the entire year just becomes a struggle and an off-season re-set is needed. It happens to the greatest to have ever done it.
It seems to be happening to our boy this season. At this point the only thing that will meaningfully change things is him getting out of his own head and trusting in the offense. That's why he looked so good on the first drive - he wasn't tentative. They'd rehearsed the shit out of those plays so he was just smiling and dialing out there. He was confident and assertive.
And once we got into the rest of the game, it vanished. The WRs didn't stop playing at that level. The OL didn't get orders of magnitude better or worse. He just doesn't have the confidence in the offense he needs to have to be at his best. And we know this HAS to be the case because you can see it when he DOES have that confidence on plays he likes and when drives get rolling.
He's holding the bat too tight out there... [Reply]
Originally Posted by AdolfOliverBush:
I agree, and it's so weird. We don't know what it's like to be an NFL QB, but I would think at this point Mahomes would be beyond any tentativeness or self-doubt. He has to know he's King Shit of **** Mountain. If it wasn't Mahomes, I would think he's either got a nagging injury, or some personal shit going on behind the scenes.
I wonder if the picks haven't bothered him a bit, beginning on Opening Night when it wasn't his fault. I assume he'll begin to let it rip again and let the chips fall where they may.
QBs throw to covered guys all the time (See: Wilson's catch for a TD against KC last week), including Pat. Once that tentativeness subsides a bit, I think we'll be good to go. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla:
I wonder if the picks haven't bothered him a bit, beginning on Opening Night when it wasn't his fault. I assume he'll begin to let it rip again and let the chips fall where they may.
QBs throw to covered guys all the time (See: Wilson's catch for a TD against KC last week), including Pat. Once that tentativeness subsides a bit, I think we'll be good to go.
Where I think the "Man his WRs suck" crowd may get a little traction is that the Mahomes I'm seeing this year reminds me a little bit of the 2021 version of him but this version doesn't have Hill to just feed 10 targets/gm for an easy 75+ yards.
He looked like this at times in 2021. Tentative to the point of really only looking at 2 guys, Kelce and Hill. Now without Hill it's just Kelce.
But what I don't understand is the regression from 2022 when he simply didn't give a shit what number the guy was wearing. If he liked the look he got, he was letting it rip. Clay seems to think it's the absence of JJSS but I'm not sure how that impacts stuff like the throw he wasn't willing to make to Watson on Sunday that turned into a fumble. Or the various times he's looked at MVS and pulled it down.
What I thought 2022 demonstrated was that PM had moved beyond needing a wubbie out there to throw the ball to. And I think he's fallen into some bad habits - perhaps because of how varied he was in his targets against Detroit and how poorly that game went. But man, he's gotta get over that.
Do what you do, bud. Go be the guy you were last year because we KNOW its in there and yes, you have the weapons and protection you need to be that guy. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chiefspants:
Juju’s route tree was more advanced and it’s likely his timing was considerably more consistent than where Rice is at the moment.
I’m a big Rice guy, I think he’ll get there, I don’t think he’s there yet.
DJ disagrees with my take on this, but our O had the second highest 3rd down conversion rate last year and Juju was responsible for converting nearly 20% of all of our O’s third downs (despite only starting 14 games). While that doesn’t seem like a super high number, to me that’s the difference between a drive stalling at midfield or settling for 3 (as we’ve done a lot this year), and a grind it out, 15 play drive that ends in 6.
FWIW, I think Patrick has taken a step back, too. However I don’t think we can waive off Juju’s absence by saying Rice is better or even that he’s already at the level Juju was last season.
I thought this was interesting - a short and simple analysis of 1ds/target.
JJSS had 47 on 101 targets; 47% of his targets were 1st downs.
So let's set aside Kelce and JJSS for the purposes of the analysis here -- 147 1st downs on 331 targets for the rest of 'em. 45%
Vs 47% for JJSS?
And when you throw Kelce back in the mix with the non-JuJu guys you get 225 1st downs on 483 targests -- 47%; same rate as JJSS.
Fellas, JuJu wasn't some spectacular chain mover. He moved the chains at EXACTLY the same rate as the rest of the targets. And there's not even a huge standard deviation among those guys -- give him Moore's rate and he's at 40 first downs over a season instead of the 47 he got; a half a first down/gm better by 'rate' than Moore got.
The only difference is that Mahomes threw him the ball. But when he did, he wasn't appreciably more successful than when Mahomes threw it to anyone else on the field. The success rate was essentially identical.
He doesn't NEED JJSS. He didn't need him last season - he doesn't need him this season. This shit is in his head.
Unless your position is that the lack of JJSS has vapor-locked Mahomes, I don't see how you can argue that it's mattered. Because the ABILITY that JJSS had simply didn't manifest itself into any level of production that outpaced anyone else on that team on a rate basis. It was, at best, marginally better in some areas.
Losing JJSS isn't the problem unless Mahomes has convinced himself that it is. In which case, he just needs to get past that. JJSS didn't bring anything to this team that doesn't exist in its present version. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
Literally no one on this team is making back-shoulder catches anymore, and I just got done explaining to you how the RPO slant game has disappeared.
Yes, JuJu brought something that is missing.
If you're telling me Mahomes is just not throwing these balls and Rice is waiting to be the next Hopkins, I'll disagree.
Literally Mahomes isnt throwing them. Literally Mahomes almost never throws them in the history of Mahomes. Literally, you should just shut up and listen. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
Literally Mahomes isnt throwing them. Literally Mahomes almost never throws them in the history of Mahomes. Literally, you should just shut up and listen.
He threw them to JuJu. In limited doses, he threw them to MVS last year.
This year it has dried up. Because we don't have JuJu. And MVS has had a shit year.
YOU should shut up and listen because this is all on video. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
Literally no one on this team is making back-shoulder catches anymore, and I just got done explaining to you how the RPO slant game has disappeared.
Yes, JuJu brought something that is missing.
If you're telling me Mahomes is just not throwing these balls and Rice is waiting to be the next Hopkins, I'll disagree.
Rashee Rice had the best body control of any receiver in the draft.
If you're telling me that we aren't throwing back-shoulder balls to Rice because Rice can't go get them and JJSS could, I truly have no idea what you're watching.
Rice is PERFECTLY equipped for those balls. Mahomes simply isn't throwing them to him.
And we've been getting away from the RPO for years as the league caught onto them. And of course we don't have Hill to run them - but JuJu has nothing special in his bag to make him better equipped to catch those than Rice is. Hell, that's not even a 'find a hole in the zone' play - it's read, snap, fire - it's nothing BUT hitting a guy at his break and Rice has absolutely demonstrated that he's outstanding in that regard. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Rashee Rice had the best body control of any receiver in the draft.
If you're telling me that we aren't throwing back-shoulder balls to Rice because Rice can't go get them and JJSS could, I truly have no idea what you're watching.
Rice is PERFECTLY equipped for those balls. Mahomes simply isn't throwing them to him.
And we've been getting away from the RPO for years as the league caught onto them. And of course we don't have Hill to run them - but JuJu has nothing special in his bag to make him better equipped to catch those than Rice is. Hell, that's not even a 'find a hole in the zone' play - it's read, snap, fire - it's nothing BUT hitting a guy at his break and Rice has absolutely demonstrated that he's outstanding in that regard.
If you want to believe Rice can make those plays despite zero evidence of it at this level, more power to ya.
Literally betting on a rookie being less of a problem than Mahomes here. OK!
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
For all the Mahomes has to be better can you point out an example of a QB doing more with less than what KC is rolling out now?
Just one QB that is doing well this year?
Not this year but the Patriots on a few occasions including 2018. Literally had a RB with the most receiving TD's.
That's why some of us compared this team to them. Elite QB, elite HC, elite TE, good OL, elite defense and WR corps that isn't that strong.
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
Literally Mahomes isnt throwing them. Literally Mahomes almost never throws them in the history of Mahomes. Literally, you should just shut up and listen.
LOL, if anything it isn't Patrick it' WR talent considering what he's done and is in his prime . 3rd down is where the WR corps shits themselves Mahomes throws it to Moore/MVS/Toney/Watson it hits their hands/bobbles it for an incompletion. Then they cut to Patrick cussing because his WRs can't catch during critical junctures. [Reply]
Pat is some way down on his magical best this year yet is still the marginal favourite to be MVP which just shows how exceptional he is that even his B+ game might take out the MVP award. [Reply]
