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Whether Travis Kelce decides to play in 2025, the Kansas City Chiefs must come to the same conclusion: They have to move onto their next phase.
No, they don’t have to release Kelce, although doing so would save $17.2 million in cap space. Kelce, 35, is too valuable and too important in the locker room to make such a choice, even with those savings.
However, the Chiefs must understand that to move forward, to attempt to reach a fourth consecutive Super Bowl (and sixth in seven years), the offense has to change. It has to go through receivers Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice, with Kelce being nothing more than a component.
Over the past two seasons, Kansas City has enjoyed immense success. The Chiefs have reached both Super Bowls and won one, to say nothing about winning it all in 2022 as well. All of this came after the team traded All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, but the metamorphosis from explosive to egregiously slow didn’t happen right away.
In fact, the slowdown began in 2021. After ranking sixth, 10th and 13th, respectively, from ’18 to ’20 in average depth of target (ADOT), Patrick Mahomes checked in at 24th in Hill’s last campaign with the club as opponents began to play more shell coverages.
In 2022, the first year without Hill, Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards and earned MVP honors. However, his ADOT was still 23rd in the league. The following year, it took a nosedive to 30th as Kansas City relied heavily on poor wideouts, including Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney.
This past season? Mahomes failed to throw for 4,000 yards for the first time in his career while ranking 41st in ADOT, only ahead of Gardner Minshew II and Tua Tagovailoa. Part of the reason was losing Rice and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown early on to injuries, but another problem was the overreliance on Kelce.
Over the past two years, Kelce has been targeted 254 times. Rice is second on the team over that span with 131 targets despite playing just four games this season. Nobody else cracked 100. Despite that, Kelce hasn’t made either All-Pro team or gained 1,000 receiving yards after seven straight seasons of doing both before 2023.
Of course, the dependence on Kelce is also due to a factor that should keep general manager Brett Veach awake at night … the issues at left and right tackle.
And for Veach, that’s where the offseason focus must be.
For Mahomes to get back to his fire-breathing ways, the Chiefs have to fix their issues at left tackle. While Jawaan Taylor is financially locked in for one more year (before Kansas City almost certainly releases him to save $20 million prior to 2026), the other side has options.
The Chiefs, who have approximately $11.5 million in cap space, can open up another $50 million to $60 million with an extension for All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, a restructure of Mahomes’s mega-deal and adding a void year to Kelce’s pact. With that money, Veach could re-sign Pro Bowl right guard Trey Smith and then shop for a left tackle in free agency as Alaric Jackson, Ronnie Stanley and Cam Robinson are all available.
Veach could also go another direction. He could use the third-round pick acquired from the Tennessee Titans in the L’Jarius Sneed trade last offseason (No. 66) to move up in the first round for an answer on the blindside. By saving tens of millions by drafting a left tackle instead of signing one, perhaps Veach could get in the receiver business.
With Worthy and Rice on cheaper rookie deals for a few more years, would Veach entertain trying to add another big name on the outside? There are a host of free-agent receivers worth discussing at One Arrowhead Drive, ranging from Tee Higgins and Chris Godwin to Stefon Diggs.
For Kansas City, the offensive ethos must change. For years, the Chiefs struck fear into defenses. Mahomes could go over the top at any moment. Most importantly, every throw was on the board. Now, the Chiefs are throwing shorter than any team in football, and the result was the 17th-ranked scoring offense and a unit that led the league in plays per drive.
Efficiency is good. Explosiveness is better.
And that doesn’t only go for the receivers. If the line is improved, the running backs should also be overhauled. While Isiah Pacheco is a quality player, he’s also missed 13 games over the past two years and is hitting free agency in 2026. Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine are both free agents now.
For Veach, the draft class presents a cornucopia of options in the backfield, with running back being one of the strongest positions of this rookie crop. Kansas City would be wise to take someone on Day 2, giving the Chiefs speed in a way they haven’t enjoyed at tailback since the days of Jamaal Charles.
Ultimately, Kansas City needs to get faster across the board, and it needs to rediscover the ability to play aggressively. For years, the Chiefs and Mahomes have eschewed the intermediate and deep routes for smaller, surer gains. It’s hard to argue with most of the results, but Super Bowl LIX also showed that without a better line and some weapons to back defenses off, disaster is always looming against a quality opponent.
Kelce might play in 2025. His decision hasn’t been made. Fair enough.
But if the Chiefs want to taste glory once more and keep their dynasty rolling, Kelce’s choice pales in comparison to the other tasks at hand.
If you look at the deep routes our WRs were running on Sunday it seems that the game plan was to be explosive and get huge chunk plays. Can't do that when your QB is getting pressured on every play and there's 7 defenders in the backfield though! [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
Being explosive on offense has been talked about forever, about 75% of it not being explosive this year is injuries though so it's not like they need completely new personnel.
Personnel upgrades at LT and RB, yes.
Injuries to WR obviously impacted that part of the explosiveness equation… although would the Chiefs have been able to maximize the potential of their WR group even if Rice and Hollywood were healthy for the duration of the season?
I love Andy Reid, he has brought winning football to KC in a way that was almost unimaginable 15 years ago, however his gameplans have become stale and these razor thin margins of victory are not sustainable. He needs to rebuild the offensive gameplan and we need utilize the run more, play action, and down the field throws. The side to side stuff has a place definitely and is a winning system, but it has become TOO west coast dink and dunk and defenses with their speed are all over it. With Mahomes PPG should always be 30+ until his tires fall off due to age. [Reply]
Like I said in the draft forum -- if there's a TE and a WR of similar pedigree/potential on the board, I'm taking the WR.
The comparison I made was Colston Loveland vs. Emeka Egbuka. Presuming for the sake of argument that you find both guys to be similarly 'graded' prospects, if I had my choice of either, I'm taking the WR.
Reid's entire career he has shown the ability to get yardage out of his TE. If Kelce walks, we'll still get 800+ yards out of the TE position as a whole.
In the meantime, I'd like to see us move more towards a WR oriented offense with a RB that's more capable of breaking longer runs and/or doing more damage in the screen/passing game.
I agree completely with the thesis of the article. Ultimately we've gotten the job done with plodding weapons and minimizing mistakes, but we're underutilizing our most valuable (and expensive) asset in so doing. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Womble:
If you look at the deep routes our WRs were running on Sunday it seems that the game plan was to be explosive and get huge chunk plays. Can't do that you when your QB is getting pressured on every play and there's 7 defenders in the backfield though!
Yeah offensive line is a major concern, basically every position except Thuney when he moves back to LG, and Creed, and Thuney IS getting older. RT, RG, and definitely LT all need to be addressed in some way. Trey Smith had a a terrible year, and Jawaan Taylor is below average. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Like I said in the draft forum -- if there's a TE and a WR of similar pedigree/potential on the board, I'm taking the WR.
The comparison I made was Colston Loveland vs. Emeka Egbuka. Presuming for the sake of argument that you find both guys to be similarly 'graded' prospects, if I had my choice of either, I'm taking the WR.
Reid's entire career he has shown the ability to get yardage out of his TE. If Kelce walks, we'll still get 800+ yards out of the TE position as a whole.
In the meantime, I'd like to see us move more towards a WR oriented offense with a RB that's more capable of breaking longer runs and/or doing more damage in the screen/passing game.
I agree completely with the thesis of the article. Ultimately we've gotten the job done with plodding weapons and minimizing mistakes, but we're underutilizing our most valuable (and expensive) asset in so doing.
That asset needs to have guys he can "trust" or whatever that means. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
The Chiefs were #1 in offense in 2022 and weren't particularly explosive.
That’s why the article on referenced the last 2 years. It’s a shit narrative. We need better LT play. Improve the Oline and anything is possible. Sports media since the Super Bowl has acted like the Chiefs run is over because of 1 bad game. It’s stupid. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
When you have defenses coming out and saying "we wanted to keep the QB in the pocket and make him play QB".....well......
Because they know the Oline won’t hold up if Mahomes is contained in the pocket. If you’re insinuating anything else then that’s on you for not paying attention to Mahomes’s play since day 1. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
That also doesn't factor 2 of the guys with lots of touches Kelce and Hunt aren't explosive in this stage of their careers.
Yeah but interchange kelce and rice, because when rice was there he was a target monster and kelce wasn’t touching the ball (all the more reason I feel like kelces negative impact is a little overstated. If rice is on the field, kelce becomes more of a role player).
Rice is very explosive. But we’ve mostly used him as an efficient target monster with explosiveness after the catch. We haven’t unlocked nearly enough the explosiveness before the catch. So even with rashee in place of kelce and Pacheco in place of hunt, our mentality didn’t really change. [Reply]