Patrick Mahomes has a 6-0 record in regular season overtime games.
His only two overtime losses (out of 9) were against the Patriots in the 2019 AFCCG and Bengals in the 2022 AFCCG.
The NFL changed the overtime possession rule because of him. Mahomes then used it to beat the 49ers in the 2024 SuperBowl.
Now the NFL has changed the overtime rule back to "TD on first possession wins the game."
Never give the Chiefs these odds.
I'll say it again: Never go into overtime against the Chiefs.
Bucks should've gone for two.
Going for two is like tying the game, winning the toss, going all the way to the Chiefs' 2 yard line with one more play to punch it in.
That's a great head start against Mahomes and these Chiefs. I'd take those chances any day versus the alternative in overtime, in which one of the following outcomes is likely:
(A) If you lose the toss, Chiefs march down field and score a TD. You lose.
(B) If you win the toss, Spags end-of-game defense shuts you down, chiefs get the ball and see (A) above. You lose.
(C) If you win the toss and score a field goal, Chiefs get a chance to match or beat it and will either score a TD or get to your 45 yard line to let Butker kick it to tie and/or extend the game. You lose or at very best tie.
(D) If you win the toss and don't score, Chiefs only have to get to your 45 yard line to let Butker kick a 62 yard field goal and win the game. You lose.
Never go into overtime against these Chiefs.
This team is so awesome. I think one of the reasons we are undefeated is, while we get every opponent's best effort each week, those teams are also doing things out of character to try to win.
One case is Mahomes scrambling and tossing it to Perine. He's done this twice now. Teams over-pursue to stop his scramble, it opens up the toss. We give teams the yips. They take chances against us. Less than half of them pay off. [Reply]
January 24, 2021 (Super Bowl LV) – Chiefs 31, 49ers 20 Result: Win (Note: Super Bowl not technically overtime, but relevant to Chiefs postseason run.)
October 6, 2021 (Monday Night Football) – Chiefs 37, Buffalo Bills 30 (OT) Result: Win
January 23, 2022 (AFC Divisional Playoffs) – Chiefs 42, Bills 36 (OT) Result: Win
(One of the most famous overtime games, known for Patrick Mahomes’ clutch plays.)
The permutations on this are interesting to think about.
2 point plays are about a 50% success rate.
But:
You don't win with a 2 point conversion, the Chiefs would have the 40 seconds and 2-3 time outs to go ~35 yards to try a field goal to win.
You don't lose with a failed 2 point conversion. The onside kick recovery rate is somewhere around 4%? recovering an onside kick is practically in field goal range.
Similar for just tying the game, you both risk that the Chiefs could win the game in regulation and also risk losing the game in OT without a chance to possess.
I still would have just gone for 2, but the exact situation here is interesting [Reply]
Originally Posted by displacedinMN:
That OT drive was a heads down, dont **** around, we are going to win this no matter what,and end it kind of drive.
Yeah but I'm sure they were in that mode when they got the ball up by 7 with three minutes to go. All they had to do was get a first down. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TinyEvel:
Yeah but I'm sure they were in that mode when they got the ball up by 7 with three minutes to go. All they had to do was get a first down.
I didn't understand that two-minute strategy at all. I guess they thought they could get a first down with that plan? Because I was watching it happen and thinking, "Hey, Andy. You have to get a first down to end this game, and it looks like you're tanking the drive." They killed, what, 20 seconds on that drive? I was pretty frustrated watching it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bearcat:
One really strange stat from last night, unless I heard incorrectly... they said Mahomes had never thrown a 4th quarter touchdown in a tied game until last night?
I'm sure that sample size is relatively small and then you have all the times they're tied and just kick a FG, but still.
Here's every possession of Mahomes' career when the game is tied in the 4th quarter and the Chiefs had at least one possession.
Chargers show up 3 times, Bengals & Bills twice.
2018:
Ravens, tied at 17, punted twice. Tied at 24, missed FG
2019:
Never tied in the 4th quarter of a game.
2020:
Falcons: Tied at 7 entering the 4th, kicked a FG to break the tie.
2021:
Chargers: Tied at 24, Mahomes interception. :-)
Giants: Tied at 17, kicked a FG
Bengals: Tied at 21, punted twice
2022:
Chargers: Tied the game at 17 in the 4th, then a pick 6 to take the lead (hey, a touchdown of some sort! :-))
Bills: Tied at 17, kicked a FG
Titans: Tied at 17, kicked a FG
Texans: Tied at 24, missed FG
Bengals: Tied at 20, punt and made a FG
Eagles: Tied at 35, kicked a FG
2023:
Jets: Tied at 20, made a FG
Bills: Tied at 17, punt
2024:
Chargers: Tied at 10, punt and a 2 yard Perine TD
Bucs, Tied at 17, P.Mahomes pass short left to D.Hopkins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bearcat:
Here's every possession of Mahomes' career when the game is tied in the 4th quarter and the Chiefs had at least one possession.
Chargers show up 3 times, Bengals & Bills twice.
2018:
Ravens, tied at 17, punted twice. Tied at 24, missed FG
2019:
Never tied in the 4th quarter of a game.
2020:
Falcons: Tied at 7 entering the 4th, kicked a FG to break the tie.
2021:
Chargers: Tied at 24, Mahomes interception. :-)
Giants: Tied at 17, kicked a FG
Bengals: Tied at 21, punted twice
2022:
Chargers: Tied the game at 17 in the 4th, then a pick 6 to take the lead (hey, a touchdown of some sort! :-))
Bills: Tied at 17, kicked a FG
Titans: Tied at 17, kicked a FG
Texans: Tied at 24, missed FG
Bengals: Tied at 20, punt and made a FG
Eagles: Tied at 35, kicked a FG
2023:
Jets: Tied at 20, made a FG
Bills: Tied at 17, punt
2024:
Chargers: Tied at 10, punt and a 2 yard Perine TD
Bucs, Tied at 17, P.Mahomes pass short left to D.Hopkins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN
That looks like a much larger sample size than Burrow has never thrown a 4th qtr TD in a playoff game (7 games) that i keep hearing about over and over and over and over, etc etc. [Reply]
