Hooo lawdy, this could become a Benny Hill level comedy romp in a hurry
Not sure what to think about Atlanta, they kinda look like a hot mess with some genuine talent sprinkled in, and a completely unproven OC thrust into the big chair
Did anyone else see the opening of Countdown? some big fat dude and Jason Kelce did a chest bump onstage and fatty limped off badly afterward :-) [Reply]
Originally Posted by wazu:
Absolutely agree with ALL of this! Analytics, if they work, have GOT to be team specific. Any idea that there is some all-purpose chart that answers the question is stupid. The play call also matters immensely.
They can't even be team specific.
They have to be DRIVE specific. Which is to say, they don't exist.
Analytics is an effort at using large numbers to make your decision. You can't do that on a drive by drive basis.
And on that specific drive, there was just no reason to believe we were getting that ball in. [Reply]
Originally Posted by ThyKingdomCome15:
Wow, Eagles are my Super Bowl pick for the NFC. I figured they'd rekindle their old magic but they can't even beat the Falcons lol.
OMG! They lost? :-)
I turned off the game when they got that last first down with 2 minutes to go. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I'll take winning the game over dogmatic adherence to theory in a sport that simply doesn't allow for it.
But your mileage may vary.
The odds of winning the game increase by letting Mahomes go for it at the 1 there. Shouldn’t need analytics to tell you that much either but he’s quite likely to get it (and even if he doesn’t you’ve pinned the Bengals at the 1 and will likely be in great field position to score on the following drive). [Reply]
Originally Posted by KC_Connection:
The odds of winning the game increase by letting Mahomes go for it at the 1 there. Shouldn’t need analytics to tell you that much either but he’s quite likely to get it (and even if he doesn’t you’ve pinned the Bengals at the 1 and will likely be in great field position to score on the following drive).
Yes - I know what the people on ESPN say.
I also know that we lost a playoff game with this 'logic'.
I know we saw the Eagles just lose a game because of it. And we've won multiple games by defying it the last several years.
No, nothing on that drive indicated we were 'quite likely' to get a score. Nor does pinning them mean much given that Mahomes threw the most boneheaded pick he's thrown in quite some time the next time he had the ball in his hands.
Again - you insist on operating in theory when we've seen what happens in practice over and over and over again on this very team. Context matters more than large numbers and the context is that even WITH Mahomes, we struggled like hell to move the ball all day. We've struggled in short yardage situations for a fairly long time.
You can't just say "Because Mahomes" and ignore what's happening on the field, no matter how badly you'd like to do so. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Pasta Little Brioni:
Ken pom boy will never understand
There's gonna be a time I'm going to want to go for it in a really similar situation.
And it's gonna look inconsistent. But it won't be.
The Bengals and Lou Anarumo just make things really hard for us. Have for several years. And Rankins actually played quite well (made a couple of really nice plays, one of them saved a TD, IMO).
Additionally, we struggled to involve our TEs, Worthy hasn't proven himself in the red-zone, Perine hasn't quite found his footing in the offense yet and we don't have Hollywood. We were so confident in our ability to just line up and gain a yard that we resorted to Tackle Eligible plays in the 3rd quarter to punch it in.
This just wasn't a situation that dictated going for it on 4th down. It was WAY too early to start chasing points and we'd just gotten our lunches stolen by the Bengals interior DL.
To say nothing of the fact that Reid simply doesn't like exposing Mahomes on those sorts of plays. If you're going to give Mahomes a 'Run or pass' scenario, it's going to be a one-read play where he's going to tuck it if he doesn't like the look and we've seen that Reid simply doesn't love doing that unless we're late-season or the playoffs.
There are a ton of reasons why the FG made more sense and they're all context specific.
"But ESPN says..." ain't.
Slavish adherence to 'what the statistics say' is like claiming The Big Bang Theory is funny. It's something dumb people do to make themselves feel smart. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Yes - I know what the people on ESPN say.
I also know that we lost a playoff game with this 'logic'.
I know we saw the Eagles just lose a game because of it. And we've won multiple games by defying it the last several years.
No, nothing on that drive indicated we were 'quite likely' to get a score. Nor does pinning them mean much given that Mahomes threw the most boneheaded pick he's thrown in quite some time the next time he had the ball in his hands.
Again - you insist on operating in theory when we've seen what happens in practice over and over and over again on this very team. Context matters more than large numbers and the context is that even WITH Mahomes, we struggled like hell to move the ball all day. We've struggled in short yardage situations for a fairly long time.
You can't just say "Because Mahomes" and ignore what's happening on the field, no matter how badly you'd like to do so.
I don't watch ESPN. We don't even get it here.
Still doesn't change the fact that kicking a FG on the 1 in the first quarter of a 3 point game is the wrong move and no amount of pleading about "context" will change that. The conversion rate on such plays is 65% and even if you account for the fact that they were struggling with Anarumo again, it's still better than a coin flip.
Again, not scoring there is a perfectly acceptable outcome at that stage of the game even if they they don't get it given the field position advantage. And odds are, they probably would have. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KC_Connection:
I don't watch ESPN. We don't even get it here.
Still doesn't change the fact that kicking a FG on the 1 in the first quarter of a 3 point game is the wrong move and no amount of pleading about "context" will change that. The conversion rate on such plays is 65% and even if you account for the fact that they were struggling with Anarumo again, it's still better than a coin flip.
Again, not scoring there is a perfectly acceptable outcome at that stage of the game even if they they don't get it given the field position advantage. And odds are, they probably would have.
It was a 'coin flip' three times and we didn't get it on any of them. We really didn't get particularly close.
But keep telling yourself that odds control in those situations. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KC_Connection:
Flipping a coin on tails three times in a row doesn't make it any more likely that the 4th will also be tails.
Not if you're flipping a coin, no.
But the gamblers fallacy only applies in true random chance.
Getting your interior line stoved in 3 times in a row ain't 'random change' fella.
That's where you continue getting this wrong. Acting like it simple math and chance. It's not - these are actual plays that are needing to be made or not made.
3 times we didn't make them. You can sit here and pretend like it was mere happenstance if we got it a 4th time but that's just lunacy. [Reply]
