I do think his INTs will go up a little.

But the whole 'He had 10 dropped picks' thing is just such horseshit. Everyone gets dropped picks. Yeah, he got a little bit lucky on those but just plain ol' luck yields maybe 5 more picks. And yeah, 17 interceptions is probably a bit more than you'd like to see.

But let's also remember that 3 of his interceptions were just 'no fucks given' heaves. They were glorified arm punts. They didn't really matter but you're gonna see that with a guy who has his arm because even if it gets picked, who gives a rip? He's one of a select few guys who can flip the field on an interception even better than a punter could.

I think we're probably looking at 14-16 interceptions this year. He'll see a slight uptick. But I think the idea that we should just concede that the rest of his numbers will regress significantly is silly.

There is just so little in the way of historical analogues here. I mean FFS, citing Kaepernick makes no sense. In Kaepernick's breakout 3rd year he had a nice season where he didn't make the Pro Bowl, he didn't win the MVP, he was never a Player of the Week, he was wasn't among the league leaders in any major offensive categories and in several he was downright poor.

Anyone calling Colin Kaepernick a superstar at that time was just DUMB.

Meanwhile Mahomes in his 2nd year in the league, 2 years younger than Kaepernick, was an All-Pro, an MVP, a 2 time player of the week and won a player of the month and either led the league or came in 2nd in every major offensive category. This isn't any kind of sensible comparison and saying "Well people thought Kaepernick would be great!!!" is an indictment of those !@#$ing morons.

There is ONE historical analogue for Patrick Mahomes. One and one only. It's Dan Marino. And even Marino didn't win the MVP in his first year as a starter like Mahomes did. If you're looking for that, you have Kurt Warner I can't think of anyone else.

Dan Marino and Kurt Warner isn't bad company to keep, Mr. Parker. But your argument turns to ash if you have to go with "Well yeah, but what happens if all he becomes is Dan Marino or Kurt Warner?"

The kid's not normal so trying to view him in light of what is 'inevitable' is just stupid.
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why will his picks go up?

he is going to have even bigger windows to throw the ball into because of all our speed, and the fact defenses are going to give cushions

that combined with the defense putting less pressure on him....i bet he doesnt throw 10 picks
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Because of his natural inclination to attack.

To the man with a hammer, the world looks like a nail. You give Mahomes even more speed to work with and I think he's going to see even more opportunities to be aggressive. On balance that will likely be a good thing.

But it's going to yield a few more turnovers, IMO. The other guys are on scholarship as well, gents. Some of them will flat make a good play on the ball. Tips happen, dropped passes happen. Shit just happens and it happens more often when you have a quarterback that's always going for the throat.

It isn't indicative of a regression in his overall performance, I think it's just a likely side-effect of some of the new toys he has to work with.
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that's actually a great analysis

kind of like kurt warner

a lot of people think that 01 Rams team was better - Warner threw 22 picks - didn't stop them from scoring more and winning more

also, it's possible we didn't see the true nature of mahomes aggressiveness last season - he was probably dialed back a bit as a first time starter
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I really hope that when Mahomes "self-scouted" his performance last season...that games like the first half of the AFCCG dont happen again.

If teams want to bracket Hill, exploit that deficiency elsewhere. Take the easy underneath stuff until it forces them to adjust.

I think when he is disciplined enough to just take what the defense gives him...he's going to be nearly unbeatable.

He left a lot of drives on the field...and easy first downs.
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Right on point. If Mahomes goes 10 games without an INT he isn't being aggressive enough.
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Yeah, but they were 3-8 against the spread their last 11. Sure, KC was averaging 36ppg over those games, but clearly the league was starting to figure Mahomes out...
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Dropped picks is such horseshit bc it happens to every QB. Hell look at this one. Rodgers gets all the headlines in the opener last year for winning a comeback game with a hurt leg...when he should have lost the game


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The league figured Mahomes out? Like the league has figured Brady out? Or how it figured Manning out, or Rogers, or Brees?
Congrats to them, they figured out how to allow an average of 36ppg from a first year starter.... "hey we ALMOST figured out that rookie" lol
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Why will he throw more picks?

Most of his real and dropped INTs came from underthrows and overthrows.

Mahomes is more experienced, smarter, and has better mechanics and footwork. I expect his INT to go down, maybe even to single digits
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I walked into a store that had ESPN on (I know, I know). They had their fantasy projection numbers scrolling, and they have Mahomes at 34 TDs for the year.

ESPN must be thinking that now the league has some tape on him, he's going to take a big step back this year. Or something.
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His picks will go down. probably single digits this year. and there will be more dropped picks. call it luck if you want to but defensive players arent used to catching passes with so much mustard on them.
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34 is still alot of touchdowns
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Sure it is. But a 16 TD pass dropoff? Call me skeptical. Will he 50 again? Kinda doubt it, but 34?

And they had his INTs up by 2 or 3, too. Again, all that tape on him.
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