I don’t see Jay Cutler as a bad comparison based on physical style of play.
Jay could have been a top 10 QB who took over the NFL if he actually cared about the game. He will go down as this generations Jeff George who had most of the tools but little motivation or passion for the game.
I’m not worried about Mahomes bc he cares deeply about football and will do anything to be successful which is true whether he succeeds or fails.
I also don’t give a shit about if he turns the ball over sometimes. Drew Brees has 9 seasons of at least 15 INT’s. Brett Favre has 14 years of that. Peyton Manning has 9 years of it.
Andrew Luck is viewed as the ****ing chosen one and people suck that guys cock with pleasure every time a QB prospect comes up and he has 68 INT’s in 70 games played.
Chiefs fans know this story better than anyone. We just saw what a pussy assed QB that never turns the ball over does for your football team and it was the definition of purgatory. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Quesadilla Joe:
Manning 14 years in Indy: 2 Super Bowl appearances, 1 win.
Manning 4 years in Denver: 2 Super Bowl appearances, 1 win
Manning's GM in Indy is in the HOF, by the way.
When are you going to wake up and realize that those Superfarce games were a sham. Cleveland would have had 2 Superfarce appearances had Manning signed there. The league gifted those Superbowls to Manning. It's so obvious. The first game, it was the playoffs that were rigged. They weren't fixing the Superbowl. Then Manning and the Donks embarrassed themselves and proved that they didn't belong there. So, when it became obvious that Manning was done, the league made sure to fix the whole thing to send him out on top in Michael Jordan fashion. They knew good and well that you dumbass Donk fans would swallow their lives e of bullshit hook, line, and sinker. Enjoy your delusion. [Reply]
Baker Mayfield's stats at Oklahoma were completely ridiculous, so it's no surprise that a stat-based projection system such as QBASE loves him with the heat of a thousand suns.
One of the stats included in QBASE is adjusted passing yards per attempt. This metric looks at yards per attempt, then adds 20 yards for each touchdown and subtracts 45 yards for each interception. Mayfield is the only quarterback in FBS history to top 12.0 APYA in a season, and he's done it twice: 12.3 APYA in 2016, and then 12.9 APYA in 2017. Mayfield also completed more than 70 percent of his passes as a senior, and Oklahoma's offense was No. 1 in Football Outsiders' passing S&P+ rating.
On top of this, the No. 1 predictor of NFL success for top quarterback draft picks is still how many years of starting experience they had in college. Mayfield is the only one of this year's top prospects with four years of starting experience. (Luke Falk, likely to be drafted later, started for three and a half seasons.)
As with Rosen, QBASE docks Mayfield a bit because he played with high-quality teammates. Both OT Orlando Brown and TE Mark Andrews are likely to be drafted in the first three rounds this year, and WR Marquise Brown and G Ben Powers are likely to go in the first three rounds of the 2019 draft. However, Mayfield does not get docked for playing an easy Big 12 schedule. Because of the Big 12 championship game, the Sooners had to play twice against TCU, which at No. 15 in S&P+ was the Big 12's best pass defense. Mayfield also had to face Ohio State (No. 12) and Georgia (No. 6), so the average pass defense he faced was ranked 52.8, the same as Rosen and better than any of this year's prospects other than Darnold.
Put all these elements together, and Mayfield has the fourth-highest QBASE projection of any prospect since 1997. The only players projected higher were Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb.
Josh Allen
Spoiler!
Projecting Allen
Mean Projection in Years 3-5: -83 DYAR
Bust (< 500 DYAR) 62.7%
Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 20.7%
Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 11.5%
Elite (>2500 DYAR) 5.2%
QBASE loathes Josh Allen (no surprise, his stats are garbage)
Mean Projection in Years 3-5: 656 DYAR
Bust (< 500 DYAR) 45.7%
Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 27.0%
Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 17.9%
Elite (>2500 DYAR) 9.4%
Mahomes has the highest QBASE projection in the class of 2017. He led all college quarterbacks last year in Expected Points Added on passing plays. He's only 21 years old, so he's got room to grow, but he also was a three-year starter at Texas Tech, so he has experience. And he put up huge numbers despite the fact that none of his receivers or offensive linemen are likely to be drafted either this year or in 2018.
Nonetheless, Mahomes' projection sets off alarm bells -- or more specifically, very loud Air Raid sirens. Every single prospect from an Air Raid offense has underperformed his QBASE projection in the NFL, although obviously you can't shut the book on Jared Goff after just one season. Playing in the Air Raid doesn't mean Mahomes' skills can't translate to the NFL, but it seems clear at this point that the scheme juices passing stats in a way that leads to QBASE overestimating these prospects. Any team that wants to draft Mahomes probably needs to discount his college performance and be very sure that his skills fit its offensive scheme.
Mahomes' QBASE is actually slightly higher than Darnold, Rosen, and Lamar Jacksons score, but they say Air Raid QB's seem to have inflated scores.
Originally Posted by King_Chief_Fan:
I love these remember when posts....obviously nothing to look forward to with the clown show that Denver has now:-)
Broncos will be fine, this is VJ’s prove it year, if the Broncos don’t make the playoffs it will be bye-bye VJ... [Reply]
Baker Mayfield's stats at Oklahoma were completely ridiculous, so it's no surprise that a stat-based projection system such as QBASE loves him with the heat of a thousand suns.
One of the stats included in QBASE is adjusted passing yards per attempt. This metric looks at yards per attempt, then adds 20 yards for each touchdown and subtracts 45 yards for each interception. Mayfield is the only quarterback in FBS history to top 12.0 APYA in a season, and he's done it twice: 12.3 APYA in 2016, and then 12.9 APYA in 2017. Mayfield also completed more than 70 percent of his passes as a senior, and Oklahoma's offense was No. 1 in Football Outsiders' passing S&P+ rating.
On top of this, the No. 1 predictor of NFL success for top quarterback draft picks is still how many years of starting experience they had in college. Mayfield is the only one of this year's top prospects with four years of starting experience. (Luke Falk, likely to be drafted later, started for three and a half seasons.)
As with Rosen, QBASE docks Mayfield a bit because he played with high-quality teammates. Both OT Orlando Brown and TE Mark Andrews are likely to be drafted in the first three rounds this year, and WR Marquise Brown and G Ben Powers are likely to go in the first three rounds of the 2019 draft. However, Mayfield does not get docked for playing an easy Big 12 schedule. Because of the Big 12 championship game, the Sooners had to play twice against TCU, which at No. 15 in S&P+ was the Big 12's best pass defense. Mayfield also had to face Ohio State (No. 12) and Georgia (No. 6), so the average pass defense he faced was ranked 52.8, the same as Rosen and better than any of this year's prospects other than Darnold.
Put all these elements together, and Mayfield has the fourth-highest QBASE projection of any prospect since 1997. The only players projected higher were Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb.
Josh Allen
Spoiler!
Projecting Allen
Mean Projection in Years 3-5: -83 DYAR
Bust (< 500 DYAR) 62.7%
Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 20.7%
Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 11.5%
Elite (>2500 DYAR) 5.2%
QBASE loathes Josh Allen (no surprise, his stats are garbage)
Mean Projection in Years 3-5: 656 DYAR
Bust (< 500 DYAR) 45.7%
Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 27.0%
Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 17.9%
Elite (>2500 DYAR) 9.4%
Mahomes has the highest QBASE projection in the class of 2017. He led all college quarterbacks last year in Expected Points Added on passing plays. He's only 21 years old, so he's got room to grow, but he also was a three-year starter at Texas Tech, so he has experience. And he put up huge numbers despite the fact that none of his receivers or offensive linemen are likely to be drafted either this year or in 2018.
Nonetheless, Mahomes' projection sets off alarm bells -- or more specifically, very loud Air Raid sirens. Every single prospect from an Air Raid offense has underperformed his QBASE projection in the NFL, although obviously you can't shut the book on Jared Goff after just one season. Playing in the Air Raid doesn't mean Mahomes' skills can't translate to the NFL, but it seems clear at this point that the scheme juices passing stats in a way that leads to QBASE overestimating these prospects. Any team that wants to draft Mahomes probably needs to discount his college performance and be very sure that his skills fit its offensive scheme.
Mahomes' QBASE is actually slightly higher than Darnold, Rosen, and Lamar Jacksons score, but they say Air Raid QB's seem to have inflated scores.
But...but...but... I thought Allen was your guy? But then a few stories surfaced about the LP Broncos being interested in Mayfield, so I get why you're pimping him now...
But what about Cousins? I thought Elway as "All IN" for him. Problem was Cousins was NEVER interested in LP Denver. He knows a dumpster fire when he sees one. :-)
Originally Posted by TEX:
I PRAY Elway drafts Mayfield. PLEASE!!! :-)
But...but...but... I thought Allen was your guy? But then a few stories surfaced about the LP Broncos being interested in Mayfield, so I get why you're pimping him now...
I have said plenty of times that I prefer Darnold, Mayfield, and Rosen over Allen. After drafting Paxton Lynch, I'm really not comfortable waiting on another project to develop. [Reply]
