https://theathletic.com/669600/2018/...ustons-impact/
Seth Keysor
Originally Posted by :
Two things are absolutely true about Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ game against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night.
1. Mahomes played a critical role in the Chiefs losing the game with a pair of inexcusable mistakes.
2. Mahomes was, for most of the evening, absolutely brilliant and the main reason the Chiefs were able to come within a gnat’s hiccup of beating the Rams in their house.
In football, we generally tend to look for “either-or” solutions, but in this case it’s more of a “both-and” analysis. Mahomes played some of the best football he has played all year during significant stretches of Monday’s instant classic. He had to overcome the irresistible force that is Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald, the pressure to score literally every time the Chiefs touched the ball and a double-digit deficit (twice!). And almost every time, he came through. Almost.
The lingering image of this game will be the biggest mistake of his young career. With 1:28 remaining in the game, the Chiefs, down by three points, had a 1st and 10 on the Rams’ 48-yard-line following an incredible third-down conversion. The Chiefs had all three timeouts remaining and looked to be in a good position to win the game, or at least send it to overtime. Then this happened.
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The Chiefs dialed up a play call that really didn’t fit the situation, almost identical to the deep-shot touchdown to receiver Tyreek Hill in that every route was long-developing and deep, with Mahomes moving out of the pocket and away from Donald. It’s a strange call because the Chiefs had run the ball with success and had more than enough time to get down the field. However, it wasn’t the play call that ruined Kansas City’s comeback attempt, but rather Mahomes’ execution of it.
When Mahomes surveyed the field, there were no open receivers to be found, as the Rams had six defenders deep to cover three Chiefs. Tight end Travis Kelce stayed in and blocked, but he had a tough one-on-one matchup. Mahomes should have helped his blocker by moving to the outside and keeping Kelce’s body between him and the rusher. Instead, he did the opposite, moving left and creating a clear lane for the rusher.
At this point, the play is dead. Mahomes should throw the ball away and live to fight another down. Instead, he attempts to force a throw down the field into coverage with the rusher closing. His arm is predictably hit by the rusher, the ball falls well short of its intended location and into the arms of Rams cornerback Marcus Peters, and the Chiefs’ realistic chance at a comeback is essentially over.
Mahomes made a series of poor choices on this play. The best option would have been to move outside and pick up some easy yards with his legs; it would have been a minimum of five yards or so given the location of the defenders. After he failed to do that, he then compounded the mistake by forcing a throw that would have been a poor decision even if his arm didn’t get hit.
This one play, more than any other throughout the evening, was squarely on Mahomes. And it’s a shame, because he was undeniably brilliant most of the evening.
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If you are unfamiliar with the numbers we use to chart quarterbacks, click here for a primer and explanation. Basically, when separating Mahomes’ performance from the rest of the offense, he was almost unbelievably exceptional throughout the evening. He made difficult throw after difficult throw, often under duress. And any time he dropped back, he faced the threat of Donald reaching him unexpectedly from his blind side.
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Both of the fumbles Donald forced were difficult to anticipate, and in both cases they came when Mahomes correctly pulled the ball down and refused to throw to a covered receiver. Mahomes has been able to move right in order to buy time consistently this season, but with Donald’s ability to close freakishly quick once he has beaten his blocker, those windows were closed. Mahomes didn’t see him either time, which makes it all the more remarkable that he didn’t develop a case of happy feet the remainder of the game.
Mahomes consistently threw the ball accurately, and both times the offense came back on the field after a forced fumble, he led the Chiefs to touchdowns. The drive before the half in particular featured some throws that ranged between good and impossible.
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The Chiefs were playing from behind quite often, and every drive felt more critical throughout the course of the game. Mahomes’ first interception of the evening, a freakish play in which the ball hung up on his offensive lineman’s helmet due to poor placement, made things even more tight.
It would have made sense for a young quarterback to come unglued during a game like this, particularly with Donald’s pressure, the fumbles and having allowed a touchdown of his own through an interception. But Mahomes continued to throw darts all over the field, in particular on third down. He and Hill were unstoppable throughout the evening, as Mahomes consistently made throws that few other quarterbacks in the league can make with any consistency.
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It would be accurate to say that Mahomes played fantastic football the vast majority of his snaps. Unfortunately for him, and for Chiefs fans, how games end is what matters the most and gets remembered. The fact that Mahomes led the offense down the field to take the lead with just less than two minutes to go and the Rams out of timeouts becomes irrelevant when he was asked to do so again and failed. Is that fair? Perhaps not. But “fair” has very little to do with the expectations placed on a franchise quarterback.
Monday’s game will hopefully serve as a teaching moment for Mahomes. For the first time since the first half of the Patriots game (an agonizingly similar loss), Mahomes looked like he felt the need to force things and do everything himself on the Chiefs’ second-to-last drive. That kind of play will rarely work at the NFL level, even with a quarterback as brilliant as Mahomes. He has learned from every other lesson so far, and the fruits of this game may not show until the playoffs.
But until then, when someone asks if Mahomes is to blame for Monday’s loss or if he’s the reason the Chiefs were even in the game, the answer is “yes” to both.
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Clocking out
The Chiefs’ final touchdown drive contained a few very frustrating moments in terms of clock management and play-calling. With 3:12 left in the game, the Chiefs faced 2nd and 8 from the Rams’ 37-yard-line. Mahomes found an open Demarcus Robinson on an excellently designed play to the left side that left him lots of room to run. Then Robinson made a mystifying decision.
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Robinson has plenty of space to operate here, but rather than cut back into the middle of the field, he fakes inside and then runs out of bounds. This decision was bad on a few levels. First, he may well have been able to fight for an extra yard or two in bounds. Second, with plenty of time left on the clock and the Chiefs having all three timeouts, there was absolutely no reason to stop the clock and every reason to keep it running.
By going out of bounds, Robinson stopped the clock with 3:12 remaining. If he had cut it inside, which would have extended the play, Robinson could have bled at least 42 seconds off the clock. That would have left 2:30 left when the Chiefs next snapped the ball. Given the field position, the Chiefs could have run the ball with Kareem Hunt and removed the two-minute warning as a clock stoppage the very next play.
All this would have led to the Chiefs having the ball on 2nd down in or near the red zone with two minutes to go and the Rams out of timeouts. That’s a wild swing in time, and that’s assuming the Chiefs score the very next play.
Yet another clock stoppage occurred the very next play, with an iffy personal foul being called on the Rams on a play where tight end Demetrius Harris was tackled in bounds. The Chiefs would have been better served to decline the penalty and take 2nd and 7 at the 20-yard-line rather than let the clock stop yet again, despite the first down and extra 10 yards it provided.
Finally, after all this occurred, the Chiefs chose to throw the ball on 1st and 10 from the 10-yard-line despite there being 2:55 left on the clock. Choosing to go with at least 1 running play would have, once again, wiped away another 40 seconds off the clock and changes the entire dynamic of the Rams’ final drive. The risk of failing to score a touchdown was real, but the Chiefs had an easy field goal as their backup.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has largely overcome the clock-management issues that haunted him earlier in his career, and he coached a generally fantastic game against the Rams. However, that last touchdown drive should have been handled completely differently. It was, in a game with many “if only” moments, arguably the difference between winning and losing.
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Justin Houston is still the best outside linebacker in Kansas City
Outside linebacker Dee Ford has had a phenomenal season, easily the best of his career. However, Monday night served as a reminder that Houston remains the most consistent edge rusher the Chiefs have, and the one who is the least affected by elite competition.
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Houston faced an elite left tackle the majority of the game, and it didn’t prevent him from making the biggest defensive play of the night, sacking Jared Goff and knocking the ball free into the waiting arms of defensive end Allen Bailey.
However, calling Houston the superior player isn’t based on just one play. Throughout the evening, both Ford and Houston received plenty of extra attention from the Rams to keep them from affecting the game. Both also faced high-level competition in Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein. However, despite facing the better of the two tackles in Whitworth, Houston was significantly more disruptive throughout the night and won more individual matchups, helping pressure Goff into sacks by other players.
In addition to being the more effective rusher despite the tougher matchup, Houston was also essential in stopping multiple runs and screens to his side of the field, including on the Rams’ final drive.
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The reason this screen never gains any traction on third down is that Houston instantly recognizes it and uses Whitworth’s momentum against him, throwing the giant left tackle out of his way and making the stop.
Houston has struggled to stay healthy, but his ability to play at a high level despite elite competition is essential if the Chiefs want to make a Super Bowl run.
False starts weren’t as big a problem as people thought
At popular request, every snap in pass protection by Havenstein, the Rams’ right tackle, was reviewed for uncalled false starts. There were only two on the evening that were obvious. Of course, the problem is that the most blatant of the two came on one of the most important plays of the game, a 3rd and 7 deep in Chiefs territory.
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Havenstein is obviously moving well before the ball is snapped here, likely trying to get wide against Ford. Of course, he appears to hold Ford as well, but given that Ford seems to attempt an inside rip move, it’s not as easy to call.
The false start, though, is a real problem. Goff scored on this play, and rather than facing 3rd and 12 like they should have, the Rams took the lead by a touchdown. The referees are not the reason the Chiefs lost this game, but this was a highly frustrating miss on a night the officials seemed determine to catch all infractions.
Dorian O’Daniel made a difference vs. running back Todd Gurley
Gurley rolled his ankle early in the game but was on the field the vast majority of the game after missing one series. O’Daniel was asked to cover him multiple times throughout the game, and generally did a very good job. Gurley wasn’t able to gain separation against O’Daniel out of the backfield or when he lined up as a receiver.
Gurley’s longest catch of the night (19 yards) came on a play O’Daniel wasn’t on the field. On one of the two catches O’Daniel allowed to Gurley on the evening, O’Daniel flashed the range to keep the gain relatively low.
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O’Daniel appears to get fooled by Goff’s eyes here and acts more like a zone linebacker than one in man coverage, despite the fact that the rest of the defense utilized man coverage. However, he did recognize the mistake even before the throw was made and closed very quickly.
O’Daniel appears to still need to work out a few kinks, as the only other catch he gave up to Gurley all evening looked like another man/zone mixup, but he was definitely a factor in keeping the Rams from targeting Gurley throughout the evening. For fear of sounding like a broken record, his role should be increased on defense, particularly against elite passing teams.
Kelce made some crucial mistakes
It may seem odd to point out the “bad” in a player with 10 catches for 127 yards and a touchdown, and this is not an indictment of Kelce as an overall player. After all, he’s arguably the best tight end in the NFL.
However, Kelce made some crucial mistakes against the Rams, starting with a catastrophic missed block on 3rd and goal early in the game.
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The Chiefs were down, 16-7, at this point and were attempting to punch it in from the 1-yard-line. They dialed up one of their favorite short-yardage plays: a speed option. The linebacker played it relatively well but still was forced to give up the edge to Hunt, who had the angle to score given his burst and ability to absorb contact.
However, Kelce failed to slow down the safety despite having a clear angle. Instead, he glances inside at another Rams defender who is about to be picked up by left tackle Eric Fisher. The safety uses that opportunity to run past Kelce and blow up the play behind the line of scrimmage, and the Chiefs are forced to settle for a field goal. It was, quite literally, a four-point mistake by Kelce.
During the same drive, Kelce had slowed down against zone coverage and caused an incomplete pass to sail over his head.
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During the broadcast view, it appeared like Mahomes simply sailed the ball over his head. Watching the “all-22” film, however, it becomes clear that Kelce slows down at the 30-yard-line and continues to run at half speed while looking for the ball. This is a strange decision given that the Rams’ deep zone defenders are at least 15 yards behind him and there was plenty of space in the zone “window” to get depth. Mahomes released it to where Kelce should have been, and found air instead.
Finally, on a crucial fourth-quarter drive, the Chiefs faced 3rd and 3 from their own 32-yard-line with a little more than eight minutes remaining in the game. Mahomes found Kelce for what should be an easy pitch-and-catch first down.
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The announcers, for some reason, praised the coverage on this play by Peters. However, it’s clear that Kelce has separation and the ball hits him right in the hands. He simply drops it. The Chiefs’ defense was able to force a punt the ensuing Rams drive, but it’s impossible to know how continuing the drive here could have affected the dynamic of a close game.
Kelce looked a bit off much of the night, seeming a bit slower than normal. It didn’t affect his overall productivity, and it’s worth noting that he made several clutch catches in the game as well. However, much like Mahomes, Kelce’s brilliance Monday night came with an asterisk.
After reviewing the film, Kansas City’s loss to the Rams was even closer than it appeared during the broadcast or on the scoreboard. Had they not gotten in their own way, they would have walked out victorious. That’s both good news and bad news, but the Chiefs now have the bye week to work out the kinks and get healthy.
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