Because of all the interest in this thread, I've place all of the video content of Patrick Mahomes II's college career, and draft day goodness into a single post that can be found here. Enjoy! [Reply]
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
Points is what matters. The Saints made the Rams punt thoroughly in the 1st half and the Rams still put up 35.
But the Saints still won - and that's what I'm looking for.
I have no doubt we can put up 45 against the Rams. I do have doubts that we can hold them to 45 with our defense in its present state. We have to be able to put up a better performance than we did against the Pats. That's my only real barometer. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
The Chargers are playing as well any offense in the league right now. There's not a chance in hell the Chiefs hold them to 21-24 range. I would not expect that at all.
Aside from the Patriots, the Chargers might be the biggest threat to our superbowl hopes.
The Chargers are a 13-3/12-4 football team with a QB who's thrown 19td's to 3 ints, they have 3 legit receiving targets that are a matchup nightmare for our small corners, and they've discovered a running game.
Seahawks held them to 25. Titans to 20.
Granted, the Titans used their offense to make that happen and they have a better defense than we do, but that was also a home game for LAC.
I'm not saying anything above 24 is a failure - for me that's the 30 point line. At Arrowhead with the division on the line, I don't think that's an unfair bar to clear for a defense that HAS talent and appears to be coming together. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Seahawks held them to 25. Titans to 20.
Granted, the Titans used their offense to make that happen and they have a better defense than we do, but that was also a home game for LAC.
I'm not saying anything above 24 is a failure - for me that's the 30 point line. At Arrowhead with the division on the line, I don't think that's an unfair bar to clear for a defense that HAS talent and appears to be coming together.
If you watched the Seahawks game the Chargers were in complete control. That's a situation where the final score doesn't represent the game as a whole. Their kicker left 5-6 points on the field from a missed FG, two missed XP's and their lack of faith in him caused them to go for 2 which they failed on.
And the Titans game was in London, so not exactly a "home game". [Reply]
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
If you watched the Seahawks game the Chargers were in complete control. That's a situation where the final score doesn't represent the game as a whole. Their kicker left 5-6 points on the field from a missed FG, two missed XP's and their lack of faith in him caused them to go for 2 which they failed on.
And the Titans game was in London, so not exactly a "home game".
I didn't watch the Seahawks game and your point regarding London is a fair one.
But at home in London is a far cry from on the road at Arrowhead, no? It's less about the defense being charged up than it is the offenses's ability to operate/audible easily. That's just a damn hard thing in KC.
So what's your metric there? Are you of the mind we throw that game out as well? If so, then you're really punting on games against NE, Pitt, STL, SD and NO. Maybe Carolina as well. I think at some point you have to see improvement against elite offenses.
Yards mean dick, but if the Chiefs can play the 1st half against the Patriots the way they played the 2nd (forcing the Patriots to kick 4 FGs) they'll win a shitload of games. Stiffening in the red zone against premier offenses is a reasonable ask. That would bring a 40+ point game down into the high 20s/low 30s and represent improvement.
You're in the realm of firmly mediocre at that point. But if an offense does to the Chiefs what the Patriots did in that first half, well that's just a bad damn defense right there. [Reply]
The Chargers are always good for 1-2 punts per game due to Rivers misfiring or their WRs being brain dead.
Lynn has definitely become a much better coach from his 1st to 2nd year, but even I question if he has the balls to run run run Melvin Gordon down our throats all day. Because that's how you would beat us, but you have to stay consistent with it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chiefspants:
But the Saints still won - and that's what I'm looking for.
I have no doubt we can put up 45 against the Rams. I do have doubts that we can hold them to 45 with our defense in its present state. We have to be able to put up a better performance than we did against the Pats. That's my only real barometer.
Run defense is a big problem right now. The run game is key for the Rams and it makes the game a lot easier on Goff at QB. Chiefs offense is gonna have to put 50+ on the board to have a good chance. [Reply]
So what's your metric there? Are you of the mind we throw that game out as well? If so, then you're really punting on games against NE, Pitt, STL, SD and NO. Maybe Carolina as well. I think at some point you have to see improvement against elite offenses.
I'm not sure that we do see improvement against elite offenses, that doesn't mean that the D hasn't improved. Maybe just not enough to matter against an elite offense. They look like an NFL caliber defense against non-elite O's.
But the rules are so slanted, defenses haven't caught up to these schemes yet, and QB's are completing passes at such a high rate that i have a hard time seeing any defense keeping up if said O is rolling.
I just checked, and even Philip Rivers is completing almost 68% of his passes. Matt Ryan is completing 70% of his passes. The success that QB's are seeing right now is off the charts. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RealSNR:
The Chargers are always good for 1-2 punts per game due to Rivers misfiring or their WRs being brain dead.
Lynn has definitely become a much better coach from his 1st to 2nd year, but even I question if he has the balls to run run run Melvin Gordon down our throats all day. Because that's how you would beat us, but you have to stay consistent with it.
The short turnaround time always favors the better coach and we have that.
But your point is an interesting one. With the short rest period and no real ability to install a complicated package for a Thursday game, maybe he just goes to the run by default.
And are we sure Melvin Gordon is good now? I mean...I guess I can't argue it because the stats sure seem to suggest it, but I dunno. He was really damn average for 3 years before this one. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I was thinking about the long-term window of Mahomes in relation to someone like Rodgers and I realized that, like, nobody else on this team...matters.
Okay, that's overstating it, but think about the duration of Aaron Rodgers career. When he was a first year starter, his top 2 WRs were Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. He had a good young RB by the name of Ryan Grant. And Jennings and Grant were young.
Rodgers was still in his prime when Jennings, Driver and Grant were done. His rookie developmental guy that year - Jordy Nelson - was washed up when Rodgers was smack in the middle of his prime.
The Patrick Mahomes throughput is going to be a thing to behold. There are going to be 3 different windows of skill position players in this guy's career. All these guys he's going to go out there over the next 3-4 seasons kicking ass and taking names with will be a memory for him by the time he's 30. And the guys he's leaning on from 30-34 will be completely different than the guys he's looking for when he's 35 and beyond. All these parts are going to move around him for years and years to come.
What a weird damn thing that is. Very surreal to think about.
I think we're also going to have to be very patient/trusting with Veach throughout these Mahomes years as well. That will be difficult for me, because I was (perhaps) overly critical of his first draft this year.
That means when we've got Hunt, Hill, and Kelce, and he drafts some midget speed WR dude in the 2nd round when we really need defense, we've gotta at least see how this plays out. We won't be able to replicate what we've got in terms of Mahomes weapons, and if we don't make investments in offensive positions where we have an embarrassment of riches, we're going to go from best in the league to "somebody get that QB some goddamn help for crying out loud" quicker than we think.
We're going to be seeing way more drafts where we pass on players at positions of need (particularly if it's defense) in the upper rounds. Just like this past year. We're going to have to get used to it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DRM08:
Run defense is a big problem right now. The run game is key for the Rams and it makes the game a lot easier on Goff at QB. Chiefs offense is gonna have to put 50+ on the board to have a good chance.
If the Rams are running the ball, I don't think we'll have time to put up 50 points. Unless we get a kick return or defensive score. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
Offensive DVOA right now:
1. Chiefs 2. Rams 3. Chargers.
That offense is rolling right now. They'll throw it all over the yard on us. It's going to be another 35+ point effort from the offense to win that.
We have to difficult games left: Chargers and Rams. Both will be shootouts.
Chargers have to travel to KC on two days practice...it's a Thursday night game in December. Chiefs have a home game against the Ravens the Sunday before...so no travel for them.
Chiefs will be used to playing in the cold....
It's really the only game on the 2018 schedule that was favorable for KC.
Chargers still have to play at Pittsburgh...and some other decent opponents. They wont win the west...
They play @Steelers, Bengals @KC on Thurs, Ravens and then @Denver. That's a brutal final 5 games... [Reply]
Originally Posted by RealSNR:
If the Rams are running the ball, I don't think we'll have time to put up 50 points. Unless we get a kick return or defensive score.
I don’t know if the Rams will run a ton of clock. Run the ball a few times in a row, then go for play action over the top. [Reply]
KC will have Berry, Houston, Morse and Sorensen back by then...and we beat LA without either of our starting safeties already. Berry Sorensen and Lucas are a good set of safeties and we should have a pass rush rotation that will keep Rivers on his backside.
I don’t think we blow them out, but I see us winning comfortably in that one.
TBH I’m not sure we don’t beat BOTH LA teams by a TD each. [Reply]
I'm already hearing on NFL net about how the Chargers are more well rounded than the CHiefs.
LT said it was because the CHiefs rely so much on the pass now and don't run the ball like they used to. Then I looked and saw Kareem is 3rd in the league in rushing and realized he's just hot taking it.
Seriously, they talked for years about how the Chiefs offense with Alex wasn't explosive enough, but now it's too explosive. [Reply]