Originally Posted by :
Whether Travis Kelce decides to play in 2025, the Kansas City Chiefs must come to the same conclusion: They have to move onto their next phase.
No, they don’t have to release Kelce, although doing so would save $17.2 million in cap space. Kelce, 35, is too valuable and too important in the locker room to make such a choice, even with those savings.
However, the Chiefs must understand that to move forward, to attempt to reach a fourth consecutive Super Bowl (and sixth in seven years), the offense has to change. It has to go through receivers Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice, with Kelce being nothing more than a component.
Over the past two seasons, Kansas City has enjoyed immense success. The Chiefs have reached both Super Bowls and won one, to say nothing about winning it all in 2022 as well. All of this came after the team traded All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, but the metamorphosis from explosive to egregiously slow didn’t happen right away.
In fact, the slowdown began in 2021. After ranking sixth, 10th and 13th, respectively, from ’18 to ’20 in average depth of target (ADOT), Patrick Mahomes checked in at 24th in Hill’s last campaign with the club as opponents began to play more shell coverages.
In 2022, the first year without Hill, Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards and earned MVP honors. However, his ADOT was still 23rd in the league. The following year, it took a nosedive to 30th as Kansas City relied heavily on poor wideouts, including Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney.
This past season? Mahomes failed to throw for 4,000 yards for the first time in his career while ranking 41st in ADOT, only ahead of Gardner Minshew II and Tua Tagovailoa. Part of the reason was losing Rice and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown early on to injuries, but another problem was the overreliance on Kelce.
Over the past two years, Kelce has been targeted 254 times. Rice is second on the team over that span with 131 targets despite playing just four games this season. Nobody else cracked 100. Despite that, Kelce hasn’t made either All-Pro team or gained 1,000 receiving yards after seven straight seasons of doing both before 2023.
Of course, the dependence on Kelce is also due to a factor that should keep general manager Brett Veach awake at night … the issues at left and right tackle.
And for Veach, that’s where the offseason focus must be.
For Mahomes to get back to his fire-breathing ways, the Chiefs have to fix their issues at left tackle. While Jawaan Taylor is financially locked in for one more year (before Kansas City almost certainly releases him to save $20 million prior to 2026), the other side has options.
The Chiefs, who have approximately $11.5 million in cap space, can open up another $50 million to $60 million with an extension for All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, a restructure of Mahomes’s mega-deal and adding a void year to Kelce’s pact. With that money, Veach could re-sign Pro Bowl right guard Trey Smith and then shop for a left tackle in free agency as Alaric Jackson, Ronnie Stanley and Cam Robinson are all available.
Veach could also go another direction. He could use the third-round pick acquired from the Tennessee Titans in the L’Jarius Sneed trade last offseason (No. 66) to move up in the first round for an answer on the blindside. By saving tens of millions by drafting a left tackle instead of signing one, perhaps Veach could get in the receiver business.
With Worthy and Rice on cheaper rookie deals for a few more years, would Veach entertain trying to add another big name on the outside? There are a host of free-agent receivers worth discussing at One Arrowhead Drive, ranging from Tee Higgins and Chris Godwin to Stefon Diggs.
For Kansas City, the offensive ethos must change. For years, the Chiefs struck fear into defenses. Mahomes could go over the top at any moment. Most importantly, every throw was on the board. Now, the Chiefs are throwing shorter than any team in football, and the result was the 17th-ranked scoring offense and a unit that led the league in plays per drive.
Efficiency is good. Explosiveness is better.
And that doesn’t only go for the receivers. If the line is improved, the running backs should also be overhauled. While Isiah Pacheco is a quality player, he’s also missed 13 games over the past two years and is hitting free agency in 2026. Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine are both free agents now.
For Veach, the draft class presents a cornucopia of options in the backfield, with running back being one of the strongest positions of this rookie crop. Kansas City would be wise to take someone on Day 2, giving the Chiefs speed in a way they haven’t enjoyed at tailback since the days of Jamaal Charles.
Ultimately, Kansas City needs to get faster across the board, and it needs to rediscover the ability to play aggressively. For years, the Chiefs and Mahomes have eschewed the intermediate and deep routes for smaller, surer gains. It’s hard to argue with most of the results, but Super Bowl LIX also showed that without a better line and some weapons to back defenses off, disaster is always looming against a quality opponent.
Kelce might play in 2025. His decision hasn’t been made. Fair enough.
But if the Chiefs want to taste glory once more and keep their dynasty rolling, Kelce’s choice pales in comparison to the other tasks at hand.
Originally Posted by YontsRBake:
Not going to write off our 25 year old RB who was averaging a career 4.7 YPC going into the season over 1 injury filled season
Longest run of the season was 34 yards… for the entire team. [Reply]
Originally Posted by LongSufferingToady:
Well, Andy turned Pat into Alex Smith. I am so pissed.
You’ve won 2 Super Bowls and a conference title the last few years with this strategy. Alex Smith & Andy Reid didn’t go anywhere in the Playoffs together even with Eric Fisher, Mitch Schwartz, Tyreek Hill, and a much younger Travis Kelce. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DRM08:
You’ve won 2 Super Bowls and a conference title the last few years with this strategy. Alex Smith & Andy Reid didn’t go anywhere in the Playoffs together even with Eric Fisher, Mitch Schwartz, Tyreek Hill, and a much younger Travis Kelce.
It just looks to me like Reid adjusts his offense to fit his targets.
Look at Vick, for example, in Philly. In his time as a starter his ADOT was about 9.4.
With Mahomes in 18, 19 and 20 he went 9.7/8.5/8.5
When Alex Smith had Hill as a starter in 2017 his ADOT was 7.8 - up almost a full yard from the season before when Hill was a rookie and part-time receiver.
Reid does what you'd want a coach to do -- tailors the offense to the personnel. He'll continue to do so. This idea that he's neutering Mahomes for shits and giggles is just bizarre. Why would he do that? What possible purpose would it serve?
When we have the weapons to push the ball, we do so. When we don't, we don't. In 2022, probably PMs best year of his career, his ADOT was 7.5 -- he was pristine that season despite dealing with mediocre weapons. Andy made it work with what he had.
So keep stacking weapons. It's not THAT complicated. You want a wide-open and aggressive offense, you have to have the pieces to do it. If you don't have those pieces...well you make due with what you have.
And over the last 3 years, despite not having those weapons, we've won 2 championships and appeared in all 3 SBs. I'd say it worked out okay. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
It just looks to me like Reid adjusts his offense to fit his targets.
Look at Vick, for example, in Philly. In his time as a starter his ADOT was about 9.4.
With Mahomes in 18, 19 and 20 he went 9.7/8.5/8.5
When Alex Smith had Hill as a starter in 2017 his ADOT was 7.8 - up almost a full yard from the season before when Hill was a rookie and part-time receiver.
Reid does what you'd want a coach to do -- tailors the offense to the personnel. He'll continue to do so. This idea that he's neutering Mahomes for shits and giggles is just bizarre. Why would he do that? What possible purpose would it serve?
When we have the weapons to push the ball, we do so. When we don't, we don't. In 2022, probably PMs best year of his career, his ADOT was 7.5 -- he was pristine that season despite dealing with mediocre weapons. Andy made it work with what he had.
So keep stacking weapons. It's not THAT complicated. You want a wide-open and aggressive offense, you have to have the pieces to do it. If you don't have those pieces...well you make due with what you have.
And over the last 3 years, despite not having those weapons, we've won 2 championships and appeared in all 3 SBs. I'd say it worked out okay.
And on top of that, they had a very good defense 2 years ago, an elite defense last year, and a very good defense this year... of course you lean into that when you don't have Tyreek and that kind of offense.
And they've still been highly efficient in the playoffs, outside of last weekend... this scrubs narrative that was listerally created Sunday night is retarded as shit. [Reply]
Games are won in the trenches. Our offensive line woes is a dead horse I’m tired of beating. The defensive line needs revamped too. We don’t put any pressure on the QB using just our front 4. We have to blitz and blitz a lot just to pressure the QB. Chris Jones always gets doubled yet the remaining three rushers still can’t put pressure on the QB. FAU is a bust. Karlaftis is a JAG and the rest of the D-Line can be cut for all I care. [Reply]
If I’m being too simplistic feel free to call me out on it, I just think it’s as simple as this guys
If the Chiefs crush the draft this year, they’ll be winning the Super Bowl again next February. If they don’t, they won’t.
LT, no LT, whatever they do there I think will be good enough. But if they add another 3-4 really quality pieces in the draft that start, and let’s say two at least that have a major positive impact, they won’t be caught. [Reply]
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
If ADOT is just a function of weapons how is Mahomes 42nd out of 44 QB's graded?
Were the Chiefs weapons bottom of the league again?
Would you argue that they weren't?
I mean Rice went down awfully early. Kelce was...lets just say 'conserving himself' for the sake of diplomacy. Brown was hurt all season and Worthy was a rookie who really developed nicely but still took time.
And frankly, when Mahomes DID go deep to him, he missed. Sometimes due to PM, sometimes due to Worthy. But it wasn't working so they shelved it while trying to find other ways to involve him.
I mean for 1/3 of the season or so we were running Justin Watson out there as our WR2 with Worthy at WR1.
So...I mean...yeah, I think it's fair to say our weapons were pretty piss poor.
If it's NOT weapons, is it your assertion that Reid just hates throwing it downfield now? Guy's been building passing offenses for 25 years now and since he finally has one of the best to ever do it he's decided "eh, fuck it - just throw slants..." for poops and grins?
In literal decades of Andy Reid as an NFL head coach, what has given you the impression that if he COULD push the ball all over the field, he wouldn't?
I mean what's your alternative to "Our pass catchers weren't very good..." because whatever it may be, it's gonna be harder to support than "our pass catchers weren't very good"
It was a combination of weapons, LT play, and Pat just not playing up to his standard.
But the weapons absolutely had a lot to do with it. You take any teams WR1 AND WR2 that early in the season, and they're going to have problems. [Reply]