Originally Posted by lewdog:
That rarely works and should never be done for those in the accumulation stage. Those 10 years or less from retirement might do what you’re suggesting though. If you don’t meet that criteria, you’ll likely lose more in preparation for a downturn than actually riding out equities.
People talked about moving money and an impending correction around 20 in the Dow. People did move money. Here we sit at 26. Those people missed 30% gains.
Timing the market in retirement accounts isn’t worth it. Decide on your allocation preference and rebalance 1-2x per year.
People who try to time the market almost always end up losing and giving money back to Wall Street. I've seen it time and time again.
Worse yet are the panickers who sell at the bottom and stay in cash. Emotional investing is bad investing; cooler heads prevail. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Cornstock:
People who try to time the market almost always end up losing and giving money back to Wall Street. I've seen it time and time again.
Worse yet are the panickers who sell at the bottom and stay in cash. Emotional investing is bad investing; cooler heads prevail.
Can someone explain to me who and what estimated taxes should be paid through the year from selling stock? I have done lots of reading and it’s comfusing who must pay through year and who can just wait to pay these when they file their taxes for the year? [Reply]
Originally Posted by lewdog:
That rarely works and should never be done for those in the accumulation stage. Those 10 years or less from retirement might do what you’re suggesting though. If you don’t meet that criteria, you’ll likely lose more in preparation for a downturn than actually riding out equities.
People talked about moving money and an impending correction around 20 in the Dow. People did move money. Here we sit at 26. Those people missed 30% gains.
Timing the market in retirement accounts isn’t worth it. Decide on your allocation preference and rebalance 1-2x per year.
What do you mean by this? Are you saying that if I move into bonds too early I would forfeit gains that I would have made had I stayed in aggressive funds? Or is different cost in moving to bonds? [Reply]
Originally Posted by lewdog:
Can someone explain to me who and what estimated taxes should be paid through the year from selling stock? I have done lots of reading and it’s comfusing who must pay through year and who can just wait to pay these when they file their taxes for the year?
Here is some decent explanation of underpayment rules. Underpaid is different than owing. Underpaying means the IRS is going to fine you. Owing just means you have a liability but no penalties.
Basically it says that if you owe a grand or less you're good (total tax - withholding). Or you've paid the lesser of 90% of total tax due OR 100% of PY tax liability.
And that is assessed capital gains. Gains in a retirement fund are not taxed. So you're just looking at whatever you've sold outside of retirement.
I'd say if you are withholding enough for you and your wife, and unless you have a SHITLOAD of gain, you're probably good. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kepp:
What do you mean by this? Are you saying that if I move into bonds too early I would forfeit gains that I would have made had I stayed in aggressive funds? Or is different cost in moving to bonds?
I don't want to speak for him, but I'd imagine that's what they're saying. If you'd have pulled out of your money when Trump got elected (as a lot of people talked about), especially after that overnight move on the futures, you'd have missed more than it will likely set back.
All speculation of course, that's why they call it speculating, not hedging, but yeah. There shouldn't be any other cost. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
That was my philosophy on various debts. I just wanted them off the books as fast as possible. At my phase in life, I'm no longer paying any debt and instead I'm on the receiving end. There's a huge mental benefit to that.
That's my take. The mental side of debt has always been the toughest part for me. Once I got a handle on it, and eliminated it, I could breathe. For some reason, that's just how I'm wired. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kepp:
What do you mean by this? Are you saying that if I move into bonds too early I would forfeit gains that I would have made had I stayed in aggressive funds? Or is different cost in moving to bonds?
Exactly right. Timing the market results in forfeiting gains much more so than actually timing the market correctly.
Buehler’s response is a perfect example. Those scared of Trump who moved money, lost 20%+ gains easily.
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
I don't want to speak for him, but I'd imagine that's what they're saying. If you'd have pulled out of your money when Trump got elected (as a lot of people talked about), especially after that overnight move on the futures, you'd have missed more than it will likely set back.
All speculation of course, that's why they call it speculating, not hedging, but yeah. There shouldn't be any other cost.
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
It's weeks like this where I really wish I could time the market. I've had a lot of money evaporate over the past few days.
At the rate it's going, I'm going to own a penny stock! :-) [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin:
I put stop losses on my whole porfolio and half of them have hit.
I guess I'm kind of lucky because my cash position has been high (15+ percent cash), just because I wasn't finding stuff I wanted to buy. I've been buying a little each day, so hopefully it'll come back quickly. [Reply]
I started typing a post that we'd given up almost the entire years gains. We were down to .40% YTD. Got distracted for 15 minutes or so and looked again and it's dropped off a ton more; were now - .38 for the year
edit: that was crazy. I wonder if some banks algo went haywire. At 3 PM EST the market fell off a cliff then corrected back just minutes later.
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
It's weeks like this where I really wish I could time the market. I've had a lot of money evaporate over the past few days.
Maybe you'll get it right someday, best of luck. I'm only in mutual funds, American and Putnam, so if I want to move from aggressive equity funds to bond funds there is no fee. I was thinking there would be a correction, took five weeks into the year. There will be a rebound coming up, but I'm still expecting a bear or at least flat equity market through this year. Bond funds are yahhhhh. [Reply]