Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
the bills didn't improve in the offseason, and a lot of other teams did - they are not gonna win 12 games, i know that
massively overhyped right now - reminds me of the ravens coming down off lamar's mvp season
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
{checks thread date}
Huh. This wasn't from 2020 afterall.
Yeah, this question doesn't make much sense to me. The Bills are REALLY damn good. Elite QB, good defense with plenty of depth, a very good HC, excellent depth at the skill positions, good OL.
I mean shit y'all - what isn't there to like about this squad? It's a game played outdoors in weather with an oblong ball so sometimes shit happens, but man - this is a REALLY talented football team.
No, I don't think they're being overhyped at all. In fact, I think the occasional attempts to put the Chargers and Ravens on an even keel with them has them underrated. That team, top to bottom, probably has more talent than any squad in football.
Very good coach is debatable the decision to kick it into the end zone at the end of the game is questionable . If Reid was on their sideline and McDermott on our side I would be we lose that game. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
the bills didn't improve in the offseason, and a lot of other teams did - they are not gonna win 12 games, i know that
massively overhyped right now - reminds me of the ravens coming down off lamar's mvp season
I tend to agree. Allen played above himself last year and it worked. I think he comes back down to earth this season. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
everyone thought lamar was the second coming of jesus after his mvp season and he's gone way downhill since
i don't see allen having quite that decline, but he's headed there if his accuracy doesn't improve, and he continues to run like a fullback
bills didn't give him any help
It's possible, but Allen has 1. a much better arm (although you can't teach accuracy) and 2. a much better WR room. Hollywood Brown is a one trick pony and not a great one at that. Andrews is a beast but Lamar never has had a great WR (probably couldn't get the ball to one anyway). I imagine Allen will hover around the same numbers he had last year for at least the next few years. [Reply]
The Bills rep came from beating a Chiefs team. That last year was winning because that's what was programmed in their DNA (the D stunk and the O was declining)
Edit: too many former staters and significant role player can't find work easily or keep it [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bearcat:
If it was Chiefs/Bills in the AFCCG this year, do you give the Bills a 50% chance of winning? 51%? 60%?
That's kind of where my mind goes when I see people saying they're the clear favorite for the SB and screen grabs like the one below where a group is unanimously picking the Bills, yet the NFC is apparently wide fucking open.
And maybe my own interpretation of "clear favorite" is off, but I'd maybe say it means the Bills would win a 7 game series 4-2 or better without a bunch of OT games.
I don't buy it, not right now.... I'd say it's a 4-3 series with a few OT games, where you're more or less lucky to win, because it could have just as easily gone the other way. That's the Chiefs and Bills right now, until proven otherwise in the postseason.
Yeah, I'd say that characterization of 'heavy favorite' is a bit simplistic because it doesn't take the actual schedule into account.
Because of the Bills division, I give them a 70/30 shot of having the #1 seed and thus the bye and HFA. That alone gives them a pretty decent kicker when calculating SB odds. They will likely have 1 fewer game to play than the rest of the field. When you're talking about odds, that's a HUGE deal.
On a neutral field I'd say they're a 2 point favorite over KC right now. Given that I would expect them to have HFA, I think that would put the line at 5 in a hypothetical AFCCG in Buffalo. And again, given that they are more likely than KC to have the bye due to their schedule, that means they're more likely to even reach that AFCCG than we are.
I mean even a 15% chance of winning the SB is pretty massive. And because of how thin the NFC is, I Think you have the Bucs and Rams as heavy favorites to attend from the NFC, which again, if you're playing odds, gives them strong SB chances.
I'd say the Bills are twice as likely as any other AFC team to win the SB. And at least that big a favorite to get there out of the AFC. It isn't just about talent when talking about these SB odds - it's about the road there. The Bills just have SO many things lining up in their favor.
The Bills would REALLY have to step on their dicks to not be the presumptive favorites out of the AFC come December. I think that's a completely fair statement. [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
They're certainly talented and certainly an elite team.
I think it's fair to say that, in a stacked AFC field, for them to be an overwhelming choice for Super Bowl winner from national pundits, they're getting a little too much hype.
They're getting as much as, if not more, hype for a Super Bowl win as the Chiefs got after, you know, WINNING the freaking Super Bowl and facing a much less intense AFC field entering 2020.
At the risk of repeating myself - it's just an odds thing.
Look at what they play vs. what we play. They just have an easier road by FAR. And with that in mind, it improves their chances at the 1 seed, the bye, HFA and the ability to rest some guys to get healthy into the playoffs. The 'stacked AFC' largely doesn't concern them because they don't have any real threats in the East and they get a soft NFC North while the AFC West has to take on the NFC West.
In some ways, because of how insulated they are from the teeth of the conference, the 'intense' AFC field is an advantage for them because those teams will largely cannibalize each other. [Reply]
They're not over-hyped, they're very good. Jesus, there are a couple of other teams out there that can play. I mean, we'll beat them, so it won't matter, but they're good. [Reply]
