There's that word again "decoy".
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Well, your original question was posed based on projected area of selection. BTJr I’ve seen as high as top 10. And consensus is 15-20.

The main issue is we are talking about a guy who exploded 4x his stats playing alongside two potential top5 picks and franchise pieces. Personally, I’m extremely high on Nabers, and Daniels is my QB#2. To me he’s the odd guy out benefiting from superstars. Not that he wouldn’t be successful at KC. In fact, that’s a place he’s most likely to be successful.

Even Franklin, who I am higher on and is a better fit, would inherit risk at 10. I simply think BTjr is more of an early second round guy. I wouldn’t be too unhappy drafting him at 32. We absolutely have to draft receiver at 32.

Worthy is more of a boom or bust guy.
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Worthy been my WR5 for 3 months. Nice seeing community rally behind the analytics recently. He is getting pushed by some as WR3 or WR4.

Early breakout age is 2nd most predictive variable for college WR success in NFL.

Worthy broke out as a true freshman. pic.twitter.com/viFclqXAK2

— Elite Drafters (@Elite_Drafters) February 25, 2024

CMP-MD
@NJSportsDoc
·
Feb 24
What’s the 1st most predictive variable?

Elite Drafters
@Elite_Drafters
Draft capital.


Lol.

The Twitter analytics bros always bring the fun.

Yeah, here our numbers say Drake London and Skyy Moore are similar...but in the end, the scouts of the NFL determine the value...



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Ya. My thing with Worthy is 1: We have receivers with similar profile that have failed massively. 2: if you’re going to shoot for the moon you might as well go for Mars. Draft Legette and hope his measurables carry him to being DK.

This being in context of drafting at 32.
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I wasn't even dunking on Worthy here.

Just find it strange that these Twitter analytics guys do all these numbers and then asked how they will then pick players in Draft dynasty or fantasy say "draft capital".


They don't believe their own bullshit.


:-)
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Yep lol...

He's a "Decoy" despite being 6th in the NCAA in receiving yards and 4th in TDs. Of the 5 ahead of him in yards, two aren't in the draft, and two of the other 3 are going in the top 10 (Nabers, Odunze). He was also 24th in receptions. Only 6 other draft prospects were ahead of him.

Meanwhile, Mr. Alpha finished 60th in the NCAA in yards, tied for 12th in TDs, and finished tied for 83rd in receptions. His decoy teammate finished ahead of him in yards at 31st and well ahead in receptions at tied for 29th.

So Mr Alpha wasn't even an alpha amongst his collegiate peers. But the supposed decoy actually was.
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It can, of course. As well as offensive system. Hell even penalties can play a part in the numbers as well.

Let take Jermaine Burton for example. Jalen Milroe ran the ball a lot. Alabama ran the ball a lot last year period. They had a lot a penalties they shouldn't have had on offense as well. At least 4 td's and 400 yds were taken away from Burton on penalties alone that was outside of his control. Now if we were to add those numbers into his final production numbers he surely would have changed what we see. Even those contested catch numbers.
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Really liking Corey’s balance and change of direction. 5’11” 220 and a 4.43 is crazy. Hes one of the first 5 guys I’m digging into so it may just be puppy love but damn!
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I had written him off as maybe a 3rd rounder until the senior bowl. His routes were precise and his short area quickness was excellent. Plus, his contact balance is outstanding. With a 40 time like that, I’m not sure he will make it to our 2nd round pick.
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Man, the way you actively shit on prospects like this is so weird.

If you had an iota of objectivity, you wouldn't do shit like this. This is 100% ego driven bs. Anybody else sees the clip showing his elite start/stop ability, and the point being made in the tweet, and sees it for what it is.

I actually watched Brett Kollman's video on Adonai, because I want a reason to be sold on every prospect. The more good players that are available, the better for us.

I've provided criticisms on Mitchell, but I've also talked about a lot of the good too. And I actually like him a little more after watching Kollman's video. He showed some all-22 stuff, and you see some of the nuance to his route running that you can't see on the broadcast tape.

That point that is being made about Worthy is legitimate and 100% true. The point you're trying to draft capital doesn't even make sense. Worthy will go in the 2nd at worst. The difference between WRs drafted outside of the top 10-15 and WRs drafted in the 2nd is minimal at best.
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This is a really strange argument for Franklin.

I don't care about just reading college production as a predictor for NFL success.

The analytics bros LOVE that shit. And when it doesn't work they can change their formula to "draft capital"! How convenient to never be wrong on a player.

:-)

Parris Campbell was the slot focal at Ohio State with Terry McLaurin on the same team.

Parris did get drafted higher. It was a BIG mistake.

In his final year at Ohio State Parris had 90 catches for 1063 yards and 12 TD's.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...ampbell-1.html

Terry McLaurin was the better WR and better pro prospect but he had only 35 catches for 701 yards and 11 TD's.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...claurin-1.html

Just because Frankin was made a focal in college doesn't mean he will be one in the NFL.


If we are talking Adonai Mitchell and Troy Franklin, one has the skillset to be an NFL target hog and impact player, one does not. Franklin's traits do not line up with being an impact player at the next level.

Look at the traits. Look at how they work in combination and then how that will work at the next level.

Franklin has one + NFL trait, straight line speed. He does not have + Hands, Route Running, or ability to catch the ball in tight spaces. His acceleration is not special either.

Adonai has +Size/Power, + Hands, and +Route Running. In combination it will give him the opportunity to be a #1 NFL WR and eat 10+ targets a game.

Teams now pay 25+ million for that.

What Franklin does I can grab a vertical speed decoy for 5 million a year in FA.

If he was an elite vertical 2 then you pay more like 12-15 million. But I don't see that upside either.
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And Mahomes has said that he wants a jump ball receiver.
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If we grab him in the 3rd, I would be very happy. If he runs 4.4 flat or faster, he will probably be a 2nd round pick.

I can see the footnote now about the receiver with the great WR father from this draft that people will remember us actually Rice, who played with Mahomes, and not Harrison Jr. who played with a really bad QB.
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Paired with Mahomes, either will be better than Flowers.

Flowers has Lamar at QB, and no matter how much he improves, he will never be Mahomes.
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I haven’t run through everything because I’m late to the party but I’d peg him mid second just guessing now
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