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Whether Travis Kelce decides to play in 2025, the Kansas City Chiefs must come to the same conclusion: They have to move onto their next phase.
No, they don’t have to release Kelce, although doing so would save $17.2 million in cap space. Kelce, 35, is too valuable and too important in the locker room to make such a choice, even with those savings.
However, the Chiefs must understand that to move forward, to attempt to reach a fourth consecutive Super Bowl (and sixth in seven years), the offense has to change. It has to go through receivers Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice, with Kelce being nothing more than a component.
Over the past two seasons, Kansas City has enjoyed immense success. The Chiefs have reached both Super Bowls and won one, to say nothing about winning it all in 2022 as well. All of this came after the team traded All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, but the metamorphosis from explosive to egregiously slow didn’t happen right away.
In fact, the slowdown began in 2021. After ranking sixth, 10th and 13th, respectively, from ’18 to ’20 in average depth of target (ADOT), Patrick Mahomes checked in at 24th in Hill’s last campaign with the club as opponents began to play more shell coverages.
In 2022, the first year without Hill, Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards and earned MVP honors. However, his ADOT was still 23rd in the league. The following year, it took a nosedive to 30th as Kansas City relied heavily on poor wideouts, including Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney.
This past season? Mahomes failed to throw for 4,000 yards for the first time in his career while ranking 41st in ADOT, only ahead of Gardner Minshew II and Tua Tagovailoa. Part of the reason was losing Rice and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown early on to injuries, but another problem was the overreliance on Kelce.
Over the past two years, Kelce has been targeted 254 times. Rice is second on the team over that span with 131 targets despite playing just four games this season. Nobody else cracked 100. Despite that, Kelce hasn’t made either All-Pro team or gained 1,000 receiving yards after seven straight seasons of doing both before 2023.
Of course, the dependence on Kelce is also due to a factor that should keep general manager Brett Veach awake at night … the issues at left and right tackle.
And for Veach, that’s where the offseason focus must be.
For Mahomes to get back to his fire-breathing ways, the Chiefs have to fix their issues at left tackle. While Jawaan Taylor is financially locked in for one more year (before Kansas City almost certainly releases him to save $20 million prior to 2026), the other side has options.
The Chiefs, who have approximately $11.5 million in cap space, can open up another $50 million to $60 million with an extension for All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, a restructure of Mahomes’s mega-deal and adding a void year to Kelce’s pact. With that money, Veach could re-sign Pro Bowl right guard Trey Smith and then shop for a left tackle in free agency as Alaric Jackson, Ronnie Stanley and Cam Robinson are all available.
Veach could also go another direction. He could use the third-round pick acquired from the Tennessee Titans in the L’Jarius Sneed trade last offseason (No. 66) to move up in the first round for an answer on the blindside. By saving tens of millions by drafting a left tackle instead of signing one, perhaps Veach could get in the receiver business.
With Worthy and Rice on cheaper rookie deals for a few more years, would Veach entertain trying to add another big name on the outside? There are a host of free-agent receivers worth discussing at One Arrowhead Drive, ranging from Tee Higgins and Chris Godwin to Stefon Diggs.
For Kansas City, the offensive ethos must change. For years, the Chiefs struck fear into defenses. Mahomes could go over the top at any moment. Most importantly, every throw was on the board. Now, the Chiefs are throwing shorter than any team in football, and the result was the 17th-ranked scoring offense and a unit that led the league in plays per drive.
Efficiency is good. Explosiveness is better.
And that doesn’t only go for the receivers. If the line is improved, the running backs should also be overhauled. While Isiah Pacheco is a quality player, he’s also missed 13 games over the past two years and is hitting free agency in 2026. Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine are both free agents now.
For Veach, the draft class presents a cornucopia of options in the backfield, with running back being one of the strongest positions of this rookie crop. Kansas City would be wise to take someone on Day 2, giving the Chiefs speed in a way they haven’t enjoyed at tailback since the days of Jamaal Charles.
Ultimately, Kansas City needs to get faster across the board, and it needs to rediscover the ability to play aggressively. For years, the Chiefs and Mahomes have eschewed the intermediate and deep routes for smaller, surer gains. It’s hard to argue with most of the results, but Super Bowl LIX also showed that without a better line and some weapons to back defenses off, disaster is always looming against a quality opponent.
Kelce might play in 2025. His decision hasn’t been made. Fair enough.
But if the Chiefs want to taste glory once more and keep their dynasty rolling, Kelce’s choice pales in comparison to the other tasks at hand.
Originally Posted by seamonster:
Has nothing to do with luck. They had the position solved with Brown but got chintzy. Wouldn't give him enough guaranteed money. Thought they could go discount best-price with band aid's and projects. Fools.
When I say luck, I would include negotiating luck such as the Orlando negotiation. Trent Williams used the Chiefs as negotiating leverage to squeeze more money out of the Niners. I don't think Trent was ever truly serious about signing with KC.
Looking back, that's a funny move by Trent Williams. The Chiefs have won 2 rings without Trent and they might have won even more than that if he was their LT from 2021 to now. And Trent is stuck with zero rings on an underachieving team with a loaded roster featuring Void Year contracts out the wazoo. Eat shit, Mr. Williams. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DRM08:
When I say luck, I would include negotiating luck such as the Orlando negotiation. Trent Williams used the Chiefs as negotiating leverage to squeeze more money out of the Niners. I don't think Trent was ever truly serious about signing with KC.
Looking back, that's a funny move by Trent Williams. The Chiefs have won 2 rings without Trent and they might have won even more than that if he was their LT from 2021 to now. And Trent is stuck with zero rings on an underachieving team with a loaded roster featuring Void Year contracts out the wazoo. Eat shit, Mr. Williams.
Orlando's gone on record claiming they were close and that he was ready to sign but they wouldn't budge on the guaranteed money. Which I believe. Front office had a tremendous draft that year and they were probably convinced they could outsmart the system and find a rookie LT in the later rounds like the Patriots. Ego. [Reply]
Brown took a smaller contract with about the same guarantees as the Chiefs offered him. He just decided he was worthy of more "respect" than the Chiefs wanted to give. They weren't cheap, OBJ was unrealistic. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DRM08:
When I say luck, I would include negotiating luck such as the Orlando negotiation. Trent Williams used the Chiefs as negotiating leverage to squeeze more money out of the Niners. I don't think Trent was ever truly serious about signing with KC.
Looking back, that's a funny move by Trent Williams. The Chiefs have won 2 rings without Trent and they might have won even more than that if he was their LT from 2021 to now. And Trent is stuck with zero rings on an underachieving team with a loaded roster featuring Void Year contracts out the wazoo. Eat shit, Mr. Williams.
What if he said that extra money means more to him than rings? [Reply]
Originally Posted by DCTwister:
One thing that Veatch has proven is that from year to year, they will fill the gaps and next year we will be back.
I can't wait for next year when the Chiefs make the Super Bowl, 6/7 years, and the whole world is saying "Son of a bitch! I knew this was the Bills/Ravens/Bengals year!" Looking forward to the hate and conspiracy theories. I also think Eagles have a good chance to make it back. Revenge game for Chiefs. Can't wait.
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
Brown took a smaller contract with about the same guarantees as the Chiefs offered him. He just decided he was worthy of more "respect" than the Chiefs wanted to give. They weren't cheap, OBJ was unrealistic.
He didn't take a smaller contract. Chiefs were only willing to guarantee 38 million dollars vs the 48 he got with the Bengals. The Chiefs contract was like a two year deal where they could cut Brown and re-coup most of the contract. In 2022 they were fresh off a killer draft and they thought they could play the system so they went cheap.
In response to those that think Orlando Brown Jr. left a mountain of money on the table last season.
The 6 year, $139M offer from the Chiefs included $57M across 2022-24, $38M fully guaranteed, plus 3 non-guaranteed seasons thereafter.
Originally Posted by seamonster:
He didn't take a smaller contract. Chiefs were only willing to guarantee 38 million dollars vs the 48 he got with the Bengals. The Chiefs contract was like a two year deal where they could cut Brown and re-coup most of the contract. In 2022 they were fresh off a killer draft and they thought they could play the system so they went cheap.
In response to those that think Orlando Brown Jr. left a mountain of money on the table last season.
The 6 year, $139M offer from the Chiefs included $57M across 2022-24, $38M fully guaranteed, plus 3 non-guaranteed seasons thereafter.
Originally Posted by seamonster:
He didn't take a smaller contract. Chiefs were only willing to guarantee 38 million dollars vs the 48 he got with the Bengals. The Chiefs contract was like a two year deal where they could cut Brown and re-coup most of the contract. In 2022 they were fresh off a killer draft and they thought they could play the system so they went cheap.
In response to those that think Orlando Brown Jr. left a mountain of money on the table last season.
The 6 year, $139M offer from the Chiefs included $57M across 2022-24, $38M fully guaranteed, plus 3 non-guaranteed seasons thereafter.
The grand total of difference over the first two years was like $2M. It's not an accurate characterization that the Chiefs went "cheap". It's not like they offered him half of what Cinci did. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DRM08:
When I say luck, I would include negotiating luck such as the Orlando negotiation. Trent Williams used the Chiefs as negotiating leverage to squeeze more money out of the Niners. I don't think Trent was ever truly serious about signing with KC.
Looking back, that's a funny move by Trent Williams. The Chiefs have won 2 rings without Trent and they might have won even more than that if he was their LT from 2021 to now. And Trent is stuck with zero rings on an underachieving team with a loaded roster featuring Void Year contracts out the wazoo. Eat shit, Mr. Williams.
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
The grand total of difference over the first two years was like $2M. It's not an accurate characterization that the Chiefs went "cheap". It's not like they offered him half of what Cinci did.
They went cheap. The Bengals are the definition of a discount best-price team... They had to sell their stadium rights to afford Burrows contract. So for them to out bid the Chiefs is a sign that the front office wasn't committed to Brown. Could have been his attitude or talent, but the results speak for themselves. With the amount of liquidity floating around the KC Chiefs organization if they really wanted too they could have come up with an agreement.
All water under the bridge now. If they're lucky they might snag Alaric Jackson. And if they do it's probably going to break LT contract records. [Reply]
Originally Posted by seamonster:
They went cheap. The Bengals are the definition of a discount best-price team... They had to sell their stadium rights to afford Burrows contract. So for them to out bid the Chiefs is a sign that the front office wasn't committed to Brown. Could have been his attitude or talent, but the results speak for themselves. With the amount of liquidity floating around the KC Chiefs organization if they really wanted too they could have come up with an agreement.
All water under the bridge now. If they're lucky they might snag Alaric Jackson. And if they do I doubt they sign him to a two year contract.
Bit being committed to Brown is not the same thing as being cheap. If you offered $10 and they wanted $12, being cheap would be letting them walk and buying someone for $8.
The had a premium they didn't want to pay and they didn't. Then they turned around and gave Taylor a wad of cash. That's not the same thing as "cheap". [Reply]