Originally Posted by GeorgeZimZam:
Royals have a frustrating way of keeping up their impressive run differential: Lose way too many low scoring games, betraying their stellar starting pitching; and offensive explosions in the occasional, blowout victory.
But I will take this much-needed W, no matter how it came.
I think win differential in MLB is not a great indicator. It can turn out to be one but there are so many low leverage points of games where the offense gets to tee off on Jordan Lyles, Carlos Hernandez, Jonathan Lynch types and any long reliever. This doesn't tell you much about your team.
How batters perform in close games is important. Somebody somewhere has to have stats on this while ignoring the 10-1 blowouts or vice versa. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
I think win differential in MLB is not a great indicator. It can turn out to be one but there are so many low leverage points of games where the offense gets to tee off on Jordan Lyles, Carlos Hernandez, Jonathan Lynch types and any long reliever. This doesn't tell you much about your team.
How batters perform in close games is important. Somebody somewhere has to have stats on this while ignoring the 10-1 blowouts or vice versa.
I think run differential is a huge indicator of how good your team is. Just look at previous world series winners and where they ranked.
Going back 32 years the average MLB run differential ranking is 4th. Run differential seems to be a really good indicator of who the best teams are. 19% of teams that won the world series between 1990 and 2023 were ranked 1st in run differential in all of the majors. 60% of teams were ranked in the top 3 of run differential and 72% of teams were ranked in the top 5. Run differential seems like one of the best indicators of how good a team was. [Reply]
Originally Posted by dlphg9:
I think run differential is a huge indicator of how good your team is. Just look at previous world series winners and where they ranked.
Going back 32 years the average MLB run differential ranking is 4th. Run differential seems to be a really good indicator of who the best teams are. 19% of teams that won the world series between 1990 and 2023 were ranked 1st in run differential in all of the majors. 60% of teams were ranked in the top 3 of run differential and 72% of teams were ranked in the top 5. Run differential seems like one of the best indicators of how good a team was.
Yes they play alot of games so run differential is always going to be a big deal for TEAMS but if you could narrow down the data for individual player evaluations by removing blowouts I think you would get better predictive data for individual players. Because how any specific player performs against a long reliever in a blowout doesn't really matter. The game is over and the long reliever is just chucking meatballs trying to get through the game. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Yes they play alot of games so run differential is always going to be a big deal for TEAMS but if you could narrow down the data for individual player evaluations by removing blowouts I think you would get better predictive data for individual players. Because how any specific player performs against a long reliever in a blowout doesn't really matter. The game is over and the long reliever is just chucking meatballs trying to get through the game.
Interesting. I'll take a look at that one. Looks like Jurrickson Profar is currently leading in WPA with Juan Soto in 2nd. Profar having an unbelievable year compared to his results prior in his career. [Reply]
Talked one of my best buds into going to today’s game. Tried to make plans a couple weeks ago to join him, but work stuff got in the way. So he went with his wife, got the nanny to help with his two young kids, and they had a great day together just kicking back with a few adult beverages, perfect weather and watching the Royals mash.
I ended up having today off, so I took my mother to visit my aunt for auntie’s 85th. Mom lives for this stuff and she had a great day. I got enjoyment from seeing my mom so happy and seeing my aunt for the first time in over ten years. Crazy how that happens in life.
So all in all, a great day. I’ll have to catch a replay or at least highlights of the game, but it was great facilitate my buddy into buying into these Royals and catching what turned out to be a perfect day, and to help put together the day for my aunt and mother to get together for a milestone birthday.
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Interesting. I'll take a look at that one. Looks like Jurrickson Profar is currently leading in WPA with Juan Soto in 2nd. Profar having an unbelievable year compared to his results prior in his career.
You have to take into account the opportunities that each of these guys get. Bobby Witt has had jack and shit hitting behind him. [Reply]
