The NFL began in 1920 and there are only 2 teams that remain from the original league, the Bears and the Cardinals. There have been 49 NFL teams that folded and all existing teams started in widely varying years. Because of that, teams have played wildly different quality of opponents and widely varying numbers of games. However, given all of that, here are the top 10 teams in all-time winning percentage:
1) Dallas Cowboys - 562-413-6 .576 (up .002 from last year)
2) Green Bay Packers - 799-598-38 .570 (down .001 from last year)
3) Baltimore Ravens - 256-194-1 .569 (up .008 from last year)
4) New England Patriots - 541-433-9 .555 (down .006 from last year)
5) Chicago Bears - 793-634-42 .556 (down .002 from last year)
6) Miami Dolphins - 496-399-4 .554 (up .002 from last year)
7) Kansas City Chiefs - 532-439-12 .547 (up .001 from last year and up one spot in these standings)
8) Minnesota Vikings - 523-435-11 .545 (down .007 from last year and down one spot in these standings)
9) San Francisco 49ers - 586-501-14 .539 (up .003 from last year)
10) Pittsburgh Steelers - 671-578-22 .537 (up .001 from last year)
The Bears and Packers both benefited from playing a lot of bad teams that folded shortly after founding. The Ravens were established in 1996, but were actually the Cleveland Browns, so they were a fully formed franchise from the very start and did not suffer the pains of an expansion team.
[I removed the speculation here about where we might finish in the next season. I'll come back and address that sometime before next season starts.]
I also broke down the numbers into the NFL divisions and found the following winning percentages:
1) NFC North .532 (unchanged)
2) AFC West .521 (down .001 from last year)
3) NFC East .520 (unchanged)
4) AFC East .508 (unchanged)
5) AFC North .508 (up .002 from last year)
6) NFC West .490 (up .001 from last year)
7) AFC South .484 (unchanged)
8) NFC South .442 (down .001 from last year)
The AFC West is also the only division in which every team is over .500. The NFC South is the only division in which every team is under .500.
Finally, I don't know whether this last comparison is meaningful, but in all-time records:
Looking into the records of all the NFL teams I found that every single team with games against defunct teams, except for the Steelers, had their winning percentages reduced by removing those games. Eleven teams had games played against defunct teams, but only 2 of those are currently in the AFC. Of those two teams, the Steeler and the Browns, each played fewer than 50 games against those opponents. On the other end, the Bears, Cardinals, Packers, and Giants each had more than 100 such games. I put together the list again and found the following:
1) Dallas Cowboys - 562-413-6 .576
2) Baltimore Ravens - 256-194-1 .569
3) New England Patriots - 541-433-9 .555
4) Miami Dolphins - 496-399-4 .554 (moved up one spot)
5) Green Bay Packers - 721-581-30 .553 (moved down one spot)
6) Kansas City Chiefs - 532-439-12 .547 (moved up one spot)
7) Minnesota Vikings - 523-435-11 .552 (moved down one spot)
8) Pittsburgh Steelers - 653-563-20 .536
9) Chicago Bears - 703-617-28 .533
10) San Francisco 49ers - 546-491-8 .526 (moved up one spot)
The Chiefs are one position higher in these standings and could actually move up as high as #2 this year with a lot of breaks. It's more likely that we could move up 2 spots at the most.
The divisional breakdown looks like this:
1) AFC West .521
2) NFC North .518
3) NFC East .512
4) AFC East .508
5) AFC North .502
6) AFC South .484
7) NFC West .482
8) NFC South .442
Finally, the breakdown of the AFC and NFC all-time win percentages makes a little more sense:
I dug up this post to update the records, but see that I already did so in February. I will add some prospects for movement on the list.
At the end of the upcoming season all of the original AFL teams (except Buffalo) will have played exactly 1000 regular season games, barring something unforeseen to alter the season, so calculating the all-time winning percentage of each of those teams is pretty easy. By the method the NFL uses to calculate winning percentages each team gets half a win and half a loss for each tie. The Chiefs have a record of 532 wins and 12 ties in their history, so the NFL will count that as 538 wins for the purpose of calculating all-time winning percentage. So, with all that said, if the Chiefs win 0 games this year, their all-time winning percentage will be .538, and we can add .001 to that winning percentage for each game the Chiefs win up to .555 if the Chiefs go undefeated.
The Chiefs current all-time winning percentage is .547 and ranks #7. The only 2 teams behind us with any realistic chance of catching us are the Vikings and the 49ers.
The Vikings are ranked #8 at .545 and have a potential range of .536 to .553.
The 49ers are ranked #9 at .539 and have a potential range of .530 to .546.
Neither of those 2 teams should pass the Chiefs this year if the Chiefs perform as expected.
There are 6 teams ahead of us and the first two teams are the Cowboys and Packers. The Chiefs will not be able to catch either of those teams this year. The Ravens are #3, but they cannot be caught unless they win 3 or fewer games this year and that seems very unrealistic.
That leaves just 3 teams that the Chiefs could realistically catch this year. The #6 Dolphins, the #5 Bears, and the #4 Patriots.
The Dolphins have a potential range of .544 if they win 0 games, and .562 if they win all of their games. If they win 11 or more games the Chiefs will be unable to catch them this year.
The Bears have a potential range of .548 to .559. If they win 12 or more games the Chiefs will be unable to catch them.
The Patriots have a potential range of .546 to .563. If they win 10 or more games the Chiefs will be unable to catch them.
It would be nice to see all 3 of the Bears, Patriots, and Dolphins have bad seasons and watch the Chiefs pass them up to #3. Personally, I think the Chiefs will finish the season as #5 or maybe #4. [Reply]
